The Wizards have their problems. Especially with Haywood out, they are weak upfront. They'll start Etan Thomas at center, and he will be backed up by Andray Blatche, Songaila, and Javale McGee. They generally have a weak bench across the board: Nick Young, Pecherov (if he isn't inactive), Dominic McGwire, Dee Brown, and Juan Dixon make up the rest of the bench (not including the guys mentioned above. Other than Juan Dixon, these players are unlikely to contribute much. Maybe Nick Young, if he's ready. They also start Antonio Daniels and DeShawn Stephenson, who are average if best. All they have right now is Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. We have some potentially weak defense there, though.
The Wizards look like they will have problems this year, but they have a history of outperforming expectations. Jordan is a good coach and - unlike the Nets - their core group has played together for a while. There is no adjustment period. I think the Nets have a shot at this one if the defense is where it needs to be. This is one of the few matchups where the Nets actually have an overall talent advantage. However, with all the changes, I am not expecting a particularly fast start to the season. A few guys are going to have to play a lot better than expected for the Nets to win games before Christmas.
either am I, but clearly this is one that they can steal. Even without Najera, the nets' second unit should be able to dominate the Wizards' reserves . . . and because it is the first day of the season, they just can't play Caron and antawn 42 minutes each, right?!
Wizards aren't known for their defense, but they play a motion offense so it'll be interesting to see how our defense responds to them. I'm not going to wish too much and wish for a win, but I want to see improvement in our bigs in how they defend and rebound. Hopefully we at least out rebound them and hold them to less than 45% shooting.
Essentially the same team went .500 last year and made the playoffs. They are at home and they aren't installing any new systems or integrating new players. The Nets have more talent on the bench, but it's a complete mystery how they will play together.
well, they DID have Arenas for a some of the season and Haywood for all of it. I think they also lost Roger Mason, who was their sixth man, but I don't know what has happened to him. Maybe he was just replaced with Dixon? The wizards went 15-9 to finish the season last year. Don't really know why. Over the first 2/3 of the season, they were 28-30.
Arenas was a zero factor last year. The very little time he was on the court he was a detriment. It's a credit to the team that he was not a distraction. Dixon is an upgrade over Mason. Thomas for Haywood is a slight downgrade. Young and Pecherov should be better. The reason they won is because they have a good system that the entire team buys into and knows how to run and Caron Butler played at a higher level than almost no one outside of hardcore Wizards fans realize.
I obviously buy into the value of a system that meshes with personnel. Early in the season weird things can happen. I just wish I had planned to be in DC this week and not last week. Not that it has any relevance, but last year the wizards showed a tendency to be very streaky. They lost their first five games; then won their next six games. Then they lost 4-of-5, followed by winning 6-of-7. Later in the season they lost 10 of 11. The Nets can take them, but it will be hard, partly because their rookies will be nervous. If Caron Butler is hitting his shots and scores 30 points, then they will likely lose.
Wizards are 6 point favorites. Sounds about right. One of my favorite moments from last year was a game against the Wizards where Sean Williams looked like he could be a dominant player. He just took over the game and it was incredibly fun to watch. It was so refreshing to see new blood start producing like that. I think that something like that could happen in every game this year. That's why I'm so excited for the season to start!
The point about rookie nervousness may have factored into Frank's decision to start Boone over Lopez. Recall Lopez was a little jittery in his first half in London. I still think we will win this game, if only by a hair. I think Vince, Devin, and Dooling will all be terrific. Simmons really came on towards the end of preseason as an opportunity shooter, and I see that continuing. Even if it doesn't, Hayes will be playing against his old team in a building where he started his career in front of fans he wants to remind of his skills, and I expect a nice boost from him when he enters the game. Of all the young players, the two I think will be the most calm and poised are Anderson and CDR, assuming they both play. There's a palpable confidence in CDR and a quiet self-assurance in Anderson that will insulate them from normal rookie jitters. I think Boone will be solid. The X factors this game are Yi and Lopez. If they both stay out of foul trouble while still being reasonably aggressive defensively, I feel confident that the Nets can win.
The Wizards will likely double Carter the entire game, try to stop Devin from penetrating, and force the other players to beat them. The speculation is also that they will put Javale McGee on Brook, reasoning that their rookie can neutralize our rookie (and trying to get him some quality PT without getting overmatched). I'm really excited about (the possibility of) seeing Brook just take over. Yi and/or Simmons will be open all game. They're the "X" factor. . . . on offense AND defense. They'll have the tough assignments.
Good point, but I guess I'm taking the optimistic view after the way Simmons came on the last few games. I'm assuming that either, or both, of Hayes and Simmons will capitalize on those corner threes. I'm more concerned about Yi's ability to stay on the floor, either because of foul trouble or because his defense/rebounding is so bad that Frank plays Ryan or a small lineup a lot instead.
can't wait to see the rotation for tonight's game. I'm super excited. *too bad I'll be missing the first half of it because I'll have to be at some film presentation in school
I hope to see enough of Jarvis Hayes, I'm more excited about what he can do while playing the 2/3 than Simmons.
They have to defend tonight and not give up open 3s to Stevenson, Butler and Jamison. The D they played during preseason was pretty awful, and if they can't get stops it won't matter how good the offense looks. It seems like they are deep enough at the 3,4 and 5 now where guys should not worry about getting into foul trouble. Vince and Devin need to stay out of it, though.
