How good is Batum really going to be?

The whole SF question hinges on whether Batum is going to be so good that he cannot be denied starter minutes.

To that end, I'd like to know from all the Blazer Homers: how good is Batum really going to be? I include rookie-year stats for each player, for comparison purposes (though each of the below was older than Batum their rookie year):

Scottie-Pippen HOF good
30mpg, 46%/71%/5.2 boards/2.4 assists/1 stl/1blk/2.6TOs 10 ppg

Gerald Wallace
8 mpg, 43%/50%/1.6 boards/0.5 assists/0.3/0.1/0.4 3.2 ppg

Tayshaun Prince
10.4mpg, 44%/65% (43% threes)/1.1 boards/0.6/0.2/0.3/0.5 3.3 ppg

Jerome Kersey
12.4mpg, 48%/65%/ 2.7 boards/0.8 assists/0.6 steals/0.4 blocks/0.9 TOs 6 PPG

Stacey Augmon
30.5mpg 49%/66%/5.1 boards/2.5assists/1.5 steals/0.3 blocks/ 2.21TOs 13.3 ppg

?

For comparison purposes, in just 6 games, Batum's numbers are:

Nicolas Batum
16.5mpg 47%/100% (40% threes)/ 2.5 boards/0.7 assists/1.2 steals/0.7 blocks/1TO 6.2 ppg.


In terms of offensive performance, his numbers are VERY close to Jerome's, but Jerome was a poorer defender and had a more muscular game. For my part, Batum looks a LOT like the rookie Augmon. 6'8", fiendishly long arms, famous defense. Batum has 2x the number of steals/48, which is astonishing.

Augmon, if we recall, never came close to his potential, and spent most of his career as a backup SF. In part, I think, it is because he was a slacker without a high basketball IQ -- both seem to be quite different to Batum.

BUT -- and I stress this. Batum's /48 numbers are not that different from Scottie Pippen's rookie numbers *either*, which is a surprise to me. If anything, Batum is a better defender. Do I get struck down by lightning for even suggesting such a thing? Though Pippen's playmaking talent was better than any SF who ever played the game, and Batum does not show that.

My bet is that we have an Augmon/Prince kind of SF on our hands, and to even hope for a HOF career is silly. Batum's percentage for threes means he is a better shooter, already, than Kersey or Augmon ever were - and probably include Wallace in that.

That leads us back to Tayshaun Prince.

What do y'all think? And if you agree that he is going to be our starter for years to come, then it means that either (or both) Trout and Webster are gone by February.

iWatas

 

I really like the Prince comparison.

 

Batum's PER so far this year: 16.8
Prince's PER his rookie season: 11.7

If we think Batum is another Prince, then clearly Batum is far ahead of where Prince was as a rookie.

iWatas

 

there are a lot of things similar physically about Prince and Augmon, but the biggest difference skills-wise is that TP has a far superior J. Largely because of this deficiency, Stacey was only a lessor rotation level player after leaving the lowly Hawks where he started his NBA career.

It's a little early for me to say how good Batum's outside jumper is... his unconventional form gives the impression that his shot is worse then the results he's been enjoying thus far (sort of the opposite of Webster). Of course I'm sure we'd all like NB's results to continue to pan out to be more Prince-esk then like Augmon, as being the guy at 3 pretty much requires that he can spread the court/keep the D honest. He's certainly given us Blazer fans a lot to be optimistic about.

STOMP

 

PER Comparisons for all these players their rookie years:

Prince: 11.7
Pippen: 12.9
Wallace: 13.3
Kersey: 15.3
Augmon: 14.4

Batum: 16.7

And our own SFs? Webster was 11.6 (last year a 12.0), and Trout was 16.4 Rookie, and 18.6 now.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that KP is awesome. And that Batum will remain the starting SF on this team.

iWatas

 

On Defense I would Scottie Pippen -- I think he will be that good on defense. On Offense -- Tayshaun Prince.

 

Thomas Rookie PER: 14.8

Aldridge Rookie PER: 17.8

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomaty01.html

iWatas

 

Batum is really finding his form - he flows in a game a lot better than Webster or Travis do and he is a lot quicker than one would expect.

I think he is our SF of the future. I just hope we can keep Travis as our offensive punch off the bench (with Rudy unless Rudy gets to start some games).

 

I put as good as Gerald Wallace. I really don't think his game will be similar at all, but I thought by the question you meant on which of these players level will he be on... And i think Wallace is a little better than Prince, and I think Batum is on his way to being better than Prince but not as good as Pippen...

so kinda on Wallace's level with Prince's characteristics or somethin' like that.

 

memory served

STOMP

 

If Batum develops a reliable jumpshot, the sky's the limit. He's so productive at such a young age that, if I knew he would develop the jumper, I'd definitely project him beyond Prince and probably Wallace, too.

But since that development is very uncertain, and a key aspect to a perimeter player's game, I'll split the difference between his productivity at a young age and missing an important factor and project him to around Prince's level.

Another negative comparison would be Mickael Pietrus. I felt he looked great early on, as he was a very good defender and had the tools to be a tremendous offensive player, though he had little offensive game at the time. But several years later, he still had developed no polished offensive game and seems set to follow a Stacey Augmon career path...defensive specialist role-player.

 

I think the sample size (6 games) is much too small to read much into Batum's stats right now.

Yes, he is off to a good start. But, we Blazer fans who have seen the games, know without looking at stats that Batum has been playing well.

I don't think anybody is arguing that he hasn't. That is not the question. The question is can Batum continue, or (dream) even build on his early success, thus, as you say, forcing his way onto the starting lineup at the age of 19? Which would be quite improbable.

Nobody knows the answer to that question. Not us. Not McMillan. Not KP. Nobody. We need more data.

I also think PER numbers for limited minutes played are not accurate. They can be fun to look at, but there are too many examples of players in limited minutes as rookies that had PER numbers much lower or higher than what they ended up with for their careers.

Only Pippen and Augmon got many minutes. You pretty much have to disgard the other numbers. Not enough data.

Augmon's PER numbers turned out to be predictive. Pippen was raw and wild and tried to do a lot with the ball and help with his defense. His defense and potential kept him on the floor. But his turnovers and lack of shot attempts killed his rookie PER number.

 

+1

 

I say Prince. He is not an all-star, but he is a major player on the defensive side of the ball. Watching Batum play defense is fun. He is not a Keon Clark in terms of a one tool block machine, he is a Prince in how he makes timely defensive plays. He is also great at running the floor. I hope that in ten years a new generation of Blazer fans looks at Batum like my generation remembers Jerome Kersey. The heart and soul of hustle and defense.

 

You're still wrong. 16.4 > 16.3

And, Aldridge spent the majority of his minutes as a rookie at center where his PER was 19.1.

In no measurable, or subjective way, did Tyrus Thomas have a better rookie year than LaMarcus Aldridge.

PER isn't a perfect metric - especially with a limited data set, but in this example the better player had the better PER.

BNM

 

A better passing Tayshuan Prince. Mike Rice said team doctors say he's not done growing. "He's 6'9" now but will be 6'10" when he stops growing."


Monty Williams has his own comparison: Bobby Jones

 

I was also going to mention Prince, in the sens that they are both long, good defenders, who have developed a shot although are not ever going to be considered a primary ball-handler or scorer on a team. Batum is in that mold, I think, although I would be happy for him to progress further.

Let's not forget. Price was a rookie after four years at Kentucky and was several years older than Batum. I'm very happy with Batum's development, although I am not surprised as he was suggested as a top-5 player in the year leading up to the draft.