you do realize that david robinson only had one season in which his playoff numbers were actually significantly lower than his regular season numbers, right? and that season was one in which the spurs lost in the first round so there wasn't really much of a sample size. and david robinson's playoff failings were much more to do with there being a lot of really good teams in the west(hakeem's rockets, drexler's blazers, stockton/malone jazz, payton/kemp sonics, barkley/johnson suns) than his personal failings as a player. the whole point isn't that the results of his formula are perfect stats with which to measure players. there is no such thing. but it gives us a good indication of who is best at the things it does measure. if you can use it along with your opinions on the unmeasurable aspects of the game it is very useful. you not trusting it because you don't think it's 100% accurate is dumb because it never claims to be.
I'm well aware of what variance is. I was trying to give it a fun name (thus the exclamation point), not give the statistical term for it.
So, really, all you're saying is that you don't like / don't trust anything that disagrees with your opinions. Specific statistical measures aren't the end-all and be-all, but I'd trust the opinion of someone who understood the stats, even if stats were all he/she used, over the opinion of someone who went entirely by what he/she saw and didn't look at the actual numbers at all. The rational thing to do, of course, is both watch the games and have a solid understanding of the numbers. The numbers aren't made up...they were created by the players actually peforming on court.
One thing that was holding us back in things like PER and the playoffs odds was still having more points against than points for, due to the Laker game at the start of the season. I think that has now been erased.
here the thing about the teams you listed.. they all went to the finals.. Robinson never carried his team to the finals. Sure they all lost save for the Rockets, but that's got more to do with facing Jordan and Pippen than those other great players not delivering. Robinson was a very good player, but the fact of the matter is he had an earned reputation for coming up small in the crunch when he was needed the most. He's settle for jumpers rather than going in the paint and forcing the action, he'd not demand the ball and get a bucket when the team needed a big bucket. All the heart things you need out of your best player, David Robinson seldomly delivered. Hakeem, Malone, Barkely, Miller they all watned the ball and could be counted on to try and create something positive. Robinson was stead and reliable but never had that extra gear in big games. Would anyone rank him as one of the 10 best players of all time???
Reggie Miller = 0 Championships David Robinson = More than 0 Championships. If given the option to pick high performing players or lower performing players that mythically "come through in the clutch", I'll take the high performing players. Clutch is more or less as myth. It's drama, it's a story, we want to believe that it matters, that Ryan Howard is a better MVP than a steafast talent like Pujols, that Reggie Miller is better for a team than David Robinson, but it's not true. Players who perform at a high rate, usually continue to do so in "clutch" moments. But trying to bet on an outlier is a bad move because you'll be disappointed more than often.
So, then, what is your system for ranking young players in an attempt to predict which ones will be great in the playoffs? As for Robinson, maybe he didn't "step up" in the playoffs as you claim is his reputation. Or, maybe he just had the weakest supporting cast of all those other stars, until Duncan came along. Look at the roster of the teams he played with. Total garbage. Most of those other teams had two superstars. The Rockets had a complete and deep roster for their 1st title run. Spurs had neither. No single player does crap when they are on an island. I propose you consider that Robinson didn't "step up" in the playoffs because opposing teams only really had to worry about stoping Robinson from scoring 30 and they would win. No other guy on the Spurs could consistently hurt them. When the opposition can concentrate all efforts on stopping you, you will look like crap.
Oh, another thing, even being able to see the future and know their career's in advance, there isn't a GM dead or alive that would pick Reggie Miller over David Robinson. Reggie Miller wouldn't pick Reggie Miller over David Robinson. So, in a way, I don't know what point you are trying to make? Seems pretty flimsy.
How is that relevant? There were more than 10 truly great players. I'd rank Robinson just outside the top ten and, really, there are only 9 players I'm certain I'd rank ahead of him: Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Bill Russell. After those nine, Robinson is basically in a class with Karl Malone and Jerry West. So sure, he could be a top ten player of all-time. He was one of the greatest defensive players ever to play the game, an excellent rebounder and one of the premier scorers of all-time. His only flaw, really, was that his game was more predicated on face-up offense, rather than back-to-the-basket offense. He was just as devastating, individually, with that style of offense, but it allowed the Spurs to play less inside-out team offense. His "failures" in the playoffs were essentially due to the quality of his team. The rosters built around him hardly look like 60-game winning talent. They won 55-60 games per year because Robinson was arguably the best player in league, for a number of years, outside of Michael Jordan.
You've got to remember that we're not through much of the season. As all statisticians know, the larger the set of dta, the more confident you can be of your findings. I would pretty much ignore (or look, but don't treat as anywhere near fact) these odds until probably 50 odd games have been played.
Anybody see the current playoff odds? The Blazers have a 96.3 chance of making the playoffs, second to only the Lakers, who don't miss the playoffs once in his simulations!
