I was just bored in the middle of the night and fiddling around with fantasy "get LeBron" scenarios in light of his latest comments. I have various tabs open with Coon's FAQ, wikipedia's "NBA Salary Cap", storytellerscontracts, and Google as well as an excel spreadsheet that I'm putting to work on this, and I just want to make sure I have a few things right. LeBron's salary for the 2009-2010 season is $15,779,913. The maximum starting salary of his free agent contract is 105% of this, which is $16,568,909. While the Cavs can sign him for six years with 10.5% raises, it looks to me like other teams can sign him for five years with 8.0% raises (I had not realized the incumbent team's advantage was quite so substantial). Without blinding you with five years of numbers, I'll summarize by saying the the fifth year of a LeBron max extension with another team would be $21,870,959, and the extension would work out to be "5 years, $96.1M" (the Cavs could offer him six years at $125.5M). The preceding is the paragraph I'd like feedback on if not correct. What follows is conjecture on my part. For Blazer fans, the big variables to consider that makes this situation hard to pin down are 1) what will be the starting values of Roy's and Aldridge's extensions? and 2) what exactly will the salary cap be? I've somewhat conservatively projected a salary cap of around $62M, two years after the current cap of nearly $59M. For both extensions, I looked around the league. For Aldridge, Josh Smith's deal jumped out at me. They seem comparable in terms of position, numbers, star status, and team value, and both teams are young and on the upswing of rebuilding. Smith's extension was for 5 years, $58M with a starting value of $10M (maximum raises were not used). By starting at $9M in the interest of preserving cap space, but using maximum raises, I created a 5 year, $54.45M extension. For Roy, I bit the bullet and went with approximately a maximum deal; I think Roy is every bit as talented and as valuable as Deron Williams. The starting salary for max extensions changes every year and was frankly too complicated for me to figure out, but Deron's started $13.758M, so I inserted a round figure of $14M for Roy one year later. Over five years, Roy's extension is worth $84.7M. The other Blazers under contract for the 2010-2011 season are Przybilla at around $7.4M, Webster at $4.8M, and this year's crop of four rookies for a total of $11.5M. If we're talking about pursuing LeBron James, I think we'll put our other free agents on the back burner, so I'm letting Blake and Outlaw walk and not worrying about a Sergio extension at this point. Assume also the Channing and Ike are long gone. I wasn't quite sure what to do with Koponen and Freeland, but even if they both sign next year, storyteller provides us with figures suggesting their salaries would add to about $1.8M. Even if we leave them overseas, this might be a prudent figure to include due to the two drafts between now and the 2010 UFA signing period. Using all of those cap hits and a salary cap of $62M, the Blazers could be under the cap by $13.55M, almost exactly $3M short of what it would take to offer LeBron the maximum allowable. Accepting a five-year deal at that number would net him $81M rather than $96.1M; that's asking a lot. However, just by leaving our euros overseas and trading out of the next two drafts (deferred for future picks), we could increase our max offer by nearly $2M starting, and now we're getting close. We could fail to pick up Batum's first option to make it the rest of the way. If the salary cap is closer to $65M, this all actually becomes pretty easy. Of course, as much as I hate to say it, the obvious solution is to move Przybilla for an expiring deal or trade exception before the time comes. Dropping that $7.4M, combined with some of the prudent measures detailed above, would allow us to make a max offer and still have $4-$8M to play with in the meantime for rookies and role players. At the end of the day, we are left with the following skeleton of a roster, eight players making $55.8M for the 2010-2011 campaign. PG - Jerryd Bayless SG - Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez SF - LeBron James, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum PF - LaMarcus Aldridge C - Greg Oden Somewhat humorously, we could probably fill out the roster with cheap role players and not even pay luxury tax in Year 1 of this uber team. After that, it would be time to start ponying up as Oden begins to get paid. Perhaps the coolest part about all of this is that our team doesn't have to do anything extreme to plan for it. The way I see it, Frye and Diogu will walk anyway, Blake and Outlaw will play out their team options, and no one looks particularly tempting in next summer's free agent market. Furthermore, none of it depends on Darius Miles. I'll leave you with this: "...I go out and I play hard and that's loyalty," James added. "It's hard because it's a business. (The) franchise is going to do what is best for the player, it always comes back on us. I am going to look bad. If a franchise decides to give up on a player, it's OK. So we have to do what is best for us." --LeBron James
"When I decide to make the decision, it’s going to basically put me in a position where I feel like I can win multiple championships." -LeBron James. Never say never.
i dunno. what if keeping joel and tweaking the team in the next year means we are contenders starting in 2009? what if you're giving up a chance at a championship in 2009/10 to gamble on lebron in 2010/11?
Great post! No matter what James is going to rolling in dough with his next contract. The deciding factor appears to be, "where can I win?". Portland does have a lot going for them - committed owner, ultra talented roster, and a solid coach. Market size will play into this decision though. And unfortunately for us, for whatever reason, superstar talent does find its way to the largest markets. Pritchard and Allen realize this, and have done everything humanly possible to prove to the league that they're head-and-shoulders above the rest. I just hope that the Los Angeleses and New Yorks of the league continue to keep aging or less promising talents on their roster. What is more likely IMO, if we're going to have any chance at securing superstar talent, is convincing Cleveland (James) or Toronto (Bosh) that instead of losing their stars without anything in return, Portland could trade them more quality players than anyone else in the league. It all depends on how improved Oden and Aldridge become. Also, it's risky for Portland, as we could lose James or Bosh in free agency if they decide that Portland's not the right fit. The risk is worth it though. You've got to swing for the fences.
it might make some sense, but we would have to basically gut the team, and depth is our strong point right now. something to look at might be trading LMA for a comparable player who has one more year on his rookie contract, or is already signed to a smaller contract than LMA will most likely recieve.
I will save you some further trouble: LeBron is not coming to Portland. He is not leaving Cleveland just to go to another small market. He is not leaving Cleveland to go to a small market in the Pacific Time Zone. He is not playing for less money so he can be as far away from the big cities and media centers as possible, playing games in an aging stadium, where the games don't end until after midnight Eastern Time. He will either stay in Cleveland or go to New York. New York is close to having enough cap space to sign BOTH Chris Bosh and LeBron outright. So don't think NY's bad roster means they don't have a shot at LeBron.
A few things you might not have seen make this even harder: 1. The starting number in maximum salary contracts is calculated as a percentage of the salary cap, because Roy will have 4yrs NBA experience before his extension/new contract can begin his starting salary with a max deal can be up to 25% of the salary cap, using your own 62mil figure that's a starting salary of 15.5mil, not 14. In Lebron's case it's a little different, the summer he becomes a free agent will be after his 7th NBA season making him eligible for an increase in percentage up to 30%. Again using your 62 million figure that means Lebron's first year under his new contract would be 18.6 million dollars. So that's about 3.5 million you don't account for. 2. Going with the skeleton roster to try and get far enough under the cap to sign Lebron would require the team to have fewer than the 12 man minimum, and for every 1 player under 12 on the roster a cap hold is placed against the cap for the rookie minimum wage. In your scenario before signing Lebron there would be 7 players under contract, which means there would be 5 holds of $473,604 against the Blazers cap. So another 2.5 million. There's not many realistic ways to get that far under the cap without sacrificing a member of the big 3, and even then like you said guys like Diogu, Frye, Outlaw, Blake, Sergio would just be let go with no return. So the question becomes, is gutting the Blazers bench/roleplayer depth and getting rid of one of our Big 3 worth a 10-15% shot at signing Lebron?
we don't have to convince the cavs of anything. lebron will have multiple options and will be holding most of the leverage. if he wants to come here and we don't have the cap space the cavs will be more than happy to get what they can in sign/trade. if he wants to go to NY, NJ, or detroit there's nothing the cavs can do about it. i don't think that's an issue, since we probably wouldn't be able to keep the big 3-4 together beyond 5 years anyway. our window is the next 5-6 years.
I think the only way to "win" sweepstakes for superstars is to be pre-emptive. The most likely way we're going to get LBJ is by trading for him before he becomes a FA. This allows us all kinds of advantages like a) keeping Bird rights, so that we can offer 6yr/10.5% raises rather than the 5/8% that TB said above. B) We can sign him last, and go above the cap to do so, and c) have the ability to sign-and-trade if it turns out that he wants to go somewhere else. Obviously it's better if we can get LBJ without giving up any of our big 3, but I think TB did a decent job of showing how that could be tough. I keep thinking about LMA being really into the Dallas area, and that they would probably take LMA and Raef and a young player for Dirk. The question then becomes Dirk + What? = LBJ? If you factor that CLE is basically set at the PG with Williams and Boobie Gibson, and Z is pretty decent at the 5, and Dirk with Varejao (who's unhappy,and would probably go in a trade) would set them at the 4, that leaves the need at 2/3 (Delonte West?!?!). Dallas has a 2/3 they're not super-high on (Josh Howard), and we have 2 young 3's that figure to lose a lot of time if LBJ is here in Webster and Outlaw. http://games.espn.go.com/nba/featur...19&teams=6~6~5~6~5~6~5~5~22~22~6~22&te=&cash= This is super-convoluted and a pipe dream, but basically we're giving up LMA and much of our young talent for LBJ. Varejao comes as a stopgap 4 (though LBJ could probably play there if we went smallball) and Stackhouse for salary purposes. Dallas gives up Nowitski and Howard but gets LMA, 26M in expiring contracts, and Blake and Webster. CLE gives up LBJ for Nowitzki, Outlaw (btw, Outlaw and Webs are interchangable...Webs could go to DAL or CLE and Outlaw goes to the other), Howard and Diogu to replace Varejao as the backup 4, but with more minutes than here (If CLE wants Frye instead of Diogu, that works too).
And something else no one's commented on yet... We can sign K*be at the end of this year. If our "Big 3" went from Oden, LMA, Roy to Oden, LBJ, K*be....would fans in here take that? Check it out....if K*be ETOs, we can basically sign him outright for the max this summer. Without giving up anyone except maybe Blake and Outlaw, depending on where the line falls. So if we go into Jan 2010 with a roster of Roy, K*be, LMA, Oden...do you think we could offer some guys for LBJ in a sign-and-trade? Sure, K*be will be "old", but LBJ seemed to have fun playing with K*be this summer, and if you add Oden to that mix (especially if either Roy or Rudy is still here), you're a pretty darn good team.
Why wouldn't we have Bird rights? He hasn't changed teams as a Free Agent, and the rights would be traded to us...? http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q19
Lebron won't be coming here because at least half his income is from endorsements and the like - and that will be much better if he is in a major market: Chicago, NY, or LA. If he gets to free agency without being traded or re-signed by Cleveland, there is an 80% chance he ends up in one of those towns. iWatas
It seems like you are assuming that the salaries for LMA and Roy are graded normally: x pay with y% raises every year. Why not just pay them less in the first year to open up salary cap space. Wouldn't this work?
I meant trading for Lebron before he becomes a free agent, sometime before next year's trading deadline. Lebron would have no say in the matter. We would only need to convince Cleveland to deal with us.
