A lot has been discussed lately about our point guards not getting the job done and how hard it can be working around Roy, who is most effective with the rock in his hand. Blake is a great shooter, but just can't run the offense well. He started off last night like gang-busters, running the floor quickly and making quick decisions, then it all went away. He also just can NOT stay in front of his man. Now Beno Udrih is a nice young player, but don't believe for one moment he has a chance in hell at being an All-Star, and yet, Blake was constantly getting lit up by Beno. Blake is also not aggressive enough to attack the hoop. I don't know if it is his mentality or being afriad of going hard to the hoop or that he knows his limitations and would get his shot swatted because he can't get up high enough to dunk it. Sergio is a traditional guard who needs the ball in his hands to do well, obviously oil and water mix with Roy. Sergio likes to push, Roy plays a bit slower (which bugs me sometimes, we need to run). Sergio also has no jumpshot whatsoever to warrant any threat from the defense, so it is useless to run him off of screens while Roy handles the ball. My answer to this solution is none other than "PAY UP" Jerryd Bayless. This kid is the shit. I am 100% confident if he were to have been taken in the top 5 of the draft, where he was projected, or by a team who would use him, he would be putting up ROY stats. You don't think Golden State or Oklahoma City wouldn't let this kid loose? He is NOT a pure point guard. He can be the one to run off of screens and let him shoot. He can create off of the dribble (something no one outside of Roy can do since Jarrett left). The dude is fearless and goes to the hole with reckless abandon. I mean, this rookie crop is sick. Mayo, Rose, Beasley are all putting up legit stats for rookies. Rudy and Batum, more later first rounders, have blossomed. Jason Thompson is putting up nice stats and even DJ Augustin is ballin right now, because his coach is letting him play. I really think Nate has killed Bayless' confidence and we need it back. We need some FUCKIN swag on this team. Someone who is a little cocky and knows he can get the job done. It is just like we need Joel's toughness. I would roll with Bayless/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden Let, Blake and Sergio duke it out for 2nd string Sure, we may lose a few due to Jerryd's youth, but isn't this team a LONG-TERM plan? We still make the palyoffs this year, no matter who starts at point, so why not let Jerryd take his lumps now, rather than when we are closing to reaching our peak? No, this is not a sky is falling post. This is a play our best talent post. I am tired of seeing other rookies dominate while we let ours go Jeramine O'Neal on the bench.
To be honest, let's remember that Blake also shut down Rose - so he is not all bad. I think that with no-one shooting well - Blake has to work harder on offense to help Roy and his defense suffers. I would continue to bring Blake as the starter and get Bayless his minutes in the backup unit at start. He will be an upgrade over Sergio defensively, he will score and shoot more than him and we will cut on the silly turn-overs (Sergio is just a turn-over machine this year). We will probably lose some of the assists - but so what - we have Rudy there and he can probably be utilized better if he is the one dribbling over Sergio and initiating the offense with JayBay on the receiving end. I think it's OK to let the Spanish agent whine.
I'm hoping Bayless takes the starting role before the end of the year - but he's got to earn it. I don't see practice, so I don't know how he's doing.
I will slightly disagree, about Blake shutting down rose. IIRC, we threw double team after double team at Rose to make him throw the ball to another teammate. I like Blake, just think he would do better guarding backup point guards. Sergio, I just don't know with this kid, sometimes I love him, sometimes I wish he would get a jumper.
Roy simply needs to learn to play (A LITTLE BIT) w/o the ball in his hands. It's a common problem for good young guys on bad teams to struggle to fit once those teams improve (because they're used to doing everything) but simply cutting backdoor and moving for open shots will get him some easy points, save his durability, and make his teammates much better. We can also take advantage of his very good post game with him down there (a skill that dissapeared after his rookie year when he had the ball in his hands more). As far as getting out in transition goes, Roy should hit the boards at times while our 4 (LMA or Channing) runs down the court (not always) as we have fast 4's. Roy is a good rebounder and can get the outlet to Sergio (or Blake even though he sucks on the break) and be a part of the secondary fast break (with Oden). The PG looks for an easy bucket before he's there (with the SF and PF) in a quick pick n roll or simple drive. As Roy and Oden come up Oden cuts to the hoop hard (who's gonna stand in front of him), and Roy spots up at the top of the key (for three) and remains there until he sets the offense (about 12-14 left on the clock). Even on plays when he's not the direct ball handler (we feed the post or someone else runs it) Roy should be running backdoor and cutting to the hoop, it will help our guards and bigs tremendously (even in a simple give n go). At that point, Steve Blake will be useless.
Yes, we did throw double-teams at Rose - but these only work if Blake funnels him to the double team - which he did. Blake is not good - but he is not horrible - and at least you know that you get good shooting and a respectable A/TO ratio with little turn-overs. Sergio is just bad defensively, his shot looks like crap and his turn-overs are awful (Last year, Jack's TOV% was 19.6%, this year, Sergio's TOV% is 29.1%. FWIW - Blake is at 11.3% this year) It is not a fluke either - since Sergio always had a bad TOV% - this year, however, with Nate giving him more time after whining - he is worse than he was before.
I like Blake but I see where your coming from. I really would rather take a chance on Bayless then know what your getting from Blake. And good point about if Bayless were on the Thunder or some team like that. He would be killing!!!
The problem is not that I know what we get from Blake - it is also that I know what we get from Sergio - and that is sub-par defense, sub-par scoring/shooting, sub-par turnovers and good assists. We get 3 bad things from Sergio and one good thing. We get 1 bad thing from Blake (defense, but it is not as bad as Sergio), good shooting and turn-overs and average assists. So that's two good, 1 average and one bad. It makes no sense to experiment with Bayless over Blake when you can give him a smaller role to experiment with over Sergio.
Bayless can't even play PG as well as Petteri Koponen. They tried switching roles for about half a game in Summer League and it was ugly. He can score one-on-five against Summer League scrubs, that's true. But so could J.R. Pinnock.
The question is - do we really need him to do much more than bring the ball up-court and let either Brandon or Rudy initiate the offense? That's all we need from him, really. I wonder if Sergio over-dribbling and monopolizing the ball does not hurt Rudy's touches as well...
The times that Rudy is most effective is when Sergio is in the game. Because Sergio is the only pass-first guard on this team (yes, I said it). Not Roy, not Rudy, not Bayless, not Blake. And Sergio seems to be the only one that the other players run around for, because they realize they might get the ball in a position to score, or if they pass it, they might get it back.
This is not true based on 82games.com When Rudy is in there with just Sergio as the ball-handling guard we have: Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Frye 66% win (best with just the 2 of them) Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Frye-Oden 33% win Rodriguez-Fernandez-Batum-Outlaw-Frye 33% Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden 25% When he is in there with some other ball handler (Roy or Blake, with or without Sergio) - we win more: Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden 100% Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Aldridge 75% Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla 58% We win more when there is another ball-handler with Rudy and Sergio does not dominate the ball. It does not happen when Sergio is the only ball handler and dominates the ball. I love the Sergio to Rudy alley-oop pass as anyone else - but I am more than happy to see lose this one alley-oop per game for getting Rudy more involved on offense - and this does not really happen when Sergio is dribbling like crazy out there - and it's not a real surprise - Rudy is effective when he is open for 3s - and it does not happen with Sergio being an ineffective shooter scorer off the dribble - the defense does not collapse on him. I think Rudy needs to initiate the offense more - and this is not happening when he is next to Sergio in the game - just as Roy is not as effective when Sergio dominates the ball.
Agreed absolutely. And I don't see Sergio "dominating the ball" (overdribbling) at all. He can KEEP his dribble - that's the big difference between him and Blake. If anyone comes near Blake he has to give it up and then run and get it back off the big he just offloaded it on.
I read those 82games stats differently, though I can see where you're coming from. I don't see it as having another ballhandler, but having Roy in there as a scorer, that's better. When Sergio's in with Roy, Roy generally lets him run the offense (until he screws up, or it gets really tight). I honestly don't have a problem with that. When Sergio's in there with just Rudy (and maybe Outlaw, or LMA) Rudy's the only one moving around. Travis stands in the corner, LMA/Frye might do a pick-and-pop, but with Roy and Rudy he has two options who can score. Joel's also great with Sergio, and Sergio looked to be getting comfortable with Oden. So I don't think it's a ballhandling issue, I think it's a motion offense issue, and putting Sergio in with Outlaw and Frye (and no Roy) isn't conducive to that.
Somebody explain this "win%" thing to me. I look at the other stats (like actual record in the games) and it doesn't seem to match up. Why should we care about this fictional stat? What is it supposed to prove?
This is just not true again. Nash when he was a dominant PG = had a TOV% of 20%. Sergio is at 30% - and the no scoring thing is a big deal - because if you can not score - it means that people do not need to defend you honestly - so it is easy to double the pass-target leading to turn overs (See Greg's two turn-overs at the start of the 4th last night - Sergio had to pass to him in traffic with two people on him on the break because they could leave him to dribble as he pleases). Add the fact that when Nash over-dribbles and the time is going to expire and he has to shoot - that ability makes it a big difference between him over-dribbling leading to a good possession and over-dribbling leading to a bad one... Nash is in the 0.6 TS% (he was 0.65 in his last MVP year) - Sergio is up from .42 to .46 this year...
I'm a little confused...I agree with what you just wrote in your last post, (about Sergio's shooting), and that he's not Nash-worthy. I'm on board with that. The comparisons were much more focused on Blake and Sergio than Nash and Sergio. And Sergio's shooting has gone up. I agree that he needs to attack the hoop more. But he had a couple of passes to Joel in the post yesterday after he drove and got double- and triple-teamed, so he's getting a little respect on his drives now. And I've seen him hit that little teardrop in the lane jumper that Iverson uses a few times this year. I think it's just a matter of going to it more.
What is it with all these freaky new stats? Is this the influence of Freakonomics or something? Okay, I give up, what is "TOV%"? I assume you're not talking about turnovers, so presumably this stat would be evidence that Sergio hogs the ball? I agree with you on this one. The amazing thing is how good Kidd must be that he has had such a positive effect on teams without being able to shoot. Sergio is no Kidd, though, that's for sure. Fair enough, but even Nash won't have a good % on last-second heaves. TS%? Where are you getting all these? I'm starting to get nostalgic for the old days when people didn't assume EVERYTHING was quantifiable.
I, for one, kind of like the new stats. True shooting percentage is a pretty good stat. But like all stats, I think they need to be looked at in context, and i think (especially with the "new stats") that there could be more than one explanation that's logical (see my post vs. Andalusian's about the best 5-man rotations).
