As of November 27, 2008 The User Guide Follows the Ratings 1 Los Angeles Lakers 19.7 2 Cleveland Cavaliers 13.3 3 Boston Celtics 12.7 4 Orlando Magic 6.0 5 Indiana Pacers 5.9 6 Denver Nuggets 5.8 7 Houston Rockets 5.8 8 New Orleans Hornets 5.1 9 Dallas Mavericks 3.9 10 Phoenix Suns 2.5 11 Philadelphia 76ers 1.7 12 Miami Heat 1.6 13 Milwaukee Bucks 1.2 14 Portland Trail Blazers 0.7 15 Utah Jazz 0.3 16 San Antonio Spurs -0.3 17 Atlanta Hawks -0.6 18 Chicago Bulls -0.6 19 Detroit Pistons -0.7 20 Charlotte Bobcats -2.4 21 Toronto Raptors -2.5 22 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 23 Memphis Grizzlies -5.8 24 New York Knicks -6.5 25 Golden State Warriors -7.3 26 New Jersey Nets -8.1 27 Washington Wizards -9.9 28 Sacramento Kings -10.5 29 Los Angeles Clippers -12.0 30 Oklahoma City Thunder -13.9 More and more, the Quest for the Ring is putting nicely completed and very detailed spreadsheets on the internet so our readers can see details that we would never have time to post. Here is where you can find the spreadsheet for the November 27, 2008 Real Team Ratings: <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4PRQsqOyTcsxb259-iN8dw">Real Team Ratings as of November 27, 2008 Spreadsheet with Details</a> REAL TEAM RATINGS <span style="color: rgb(255, 153, 0); font-weight: bold;">USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS</span> Last updated November 27, 2008 This is the most accurate ranking possible. This system, although still very young, has already obtained a great track record. This system extremely accurately predicted the entire course of the 2008 playoffs. These rankings start with all-inclusive offensive and defensive efficiency statistics that are adjusted for pace. Specifically, we take points scored per 100 possessions for offensive efficiency and points given up per 100 possessions for defensive efficiency. We then adjust for schedule difficulty by using a scaled by rank index based on the combined average winning percentage of all of the opponents that a team has played. The indices used in the schedule adjustment are calibrated to the month of the season that has been reached; lessor adjustments are made as the season goes along, because the schedules equal out more and more as the season goes along. We then carefully overweight a little for the quality of a team's defending, which is at a premium in the playoffs. We call this the Adjustment for Defending. Due to the strength of schedule adjustment and due to the overweighting of defending, the overall team ratings are NOT simply a report on how well the teams have done this season. This is because the primary objective of this system is to reveal how well each team is projected to do in the playoffs. THE LATER IN THE SEASON IT IS THE MORE ROCK SOLID THE RATINGS ARE The earlier in the season it is, the less reliable the ratings are, both because teams have not played the majority of the other teams yet, and because many teams use November and even December as a kind of extended pre-season: they use the early weeks of the season to try out various lineups, strategies, and plays to see which ones work best. As a result, Real Team Ratings after January 1 and especially after February 1 are going to be substantially more rock solid and able to tell you what is going to happen in the playoffs than are ratings coming before the end of the year. PREDICT FOR KNOWLEDGE OR FUN BUT DO NOT GAMBLE ANY MONEY Do not under any circumstances use these ratings to gamble with valuable money by betting on the outcome of games. The reasons this would be foolish are explained shortly. You can predict games for fun but you are a fool if you think you can use these ratings or any other ratings to predict the outcome of games well enough to win money from betting money on outcomes. Do not bet any money on the outcome of basketball games. The remainder of this guide is for those who want to predict games for fun or for knowledge development. The Real Team Rating differentials between teams can be used as crucial starting points for approximations of expected score difference when any two teams play. Though the ratings are a critical starting point, the outside factors below absolutely must be considered if you are seriously trying to predict the outcome of games in advance. Unfortunately, some of these factors are not only unavailable anywhere including here as of yet, they are difficult to estimate out of the blue, Therefore, to repeat, you should definitely not think that you can use this web site to make money by betting on basketball games. The injury, player slumps, and coaching differential factors, especially, because all of these are so hard to estimate, make it impossible to be truly accurate in predicting games. OUTSIDE FACTORS THAT EFFECT GAMES 1. Home Court Advantage 4-6 points, depending on team. 2. Extra Rest Advantage 5-7 points 3. Injuries and Player Slumps 0-15 points, rarely more than 10 points. Player slumps are rare, and are defined as major slumps among the best 6 players on the team. 4. Coaching Quality Differential 0-9 points, rarely more than 7 points. 5. The "Human Nature Adjustment": Since it is human nature for basketball players to ease up a little bit if they have a big lead over the other team, you would be foolish to assume that large predicted differences (greater than 10 points) will actually play out in real life. A rough rule of thumb to use is to take only one half of all predicted margin of victory points above 10 as viable for the actual game. For example, suppose that after you have considered the ratings and all of the outside factors, you have an estimate that the Lakers will beat the Clippers by 40 points. You would be wise to take only 1/2 of the margin greater than 10, which would be one half of 40-10, or 1/2 of 30, which is 15, added to the 10, which yields an actual prediction of the Lakers beating the Clippers by 25 points. FULL EXAMPLE ON PREDICTING Team X has a Real Team Rating of 15 and Team Y has a Real Team Rating of -5. The starting point for predicting the outcome is that Team X will beat Team Y by 20. Now you estimate all the outside factors: 1. Team Y is home: the predicted team X margin of victory is reduced by 5, to 15. 2. Team Y is playing on back to back nights, while Team X is not: the predicted Team X margin of victory is increased by 6, to 21. 3. Neither team has any major player slumps. But Team X is badly banged up (-10 points) while Team Y has only one injury to a bench player (-1 point): the predicted Team X margin of victory decreases by 9, to 12. 4. The Coach of Team X is on point with hihs team better than the Coach of Team Y is with his team: the predicted Team X margin of victory increases by 3, to 15. 5. Human Nature Adjustment: the predicted margin of victory is reduced by one half of anything in excess of ten points. The predicted Team X margin of victory over Team Y is reduced from 15 to 12.5. So in this example, the final result is that Team X is projected to beat Team Y by about 12.5 points.
Yes, I am aware that my early November prediction that the Nuggets would not make the playoffs looks goofy right now. And flat out wrong. The lesson is to never make any predictions in early November! I fell right into that hole in the ground. The Warriors and the Clippers are both wretched compared to what people were thinking. It now appears obvious that it is unlikely that the Warriors are going to make the playoffs with Baron Davis gone and with Monta Ellis missing for 1/3 of the season. So scratch them out. The Clippers, despite having a great mix of dependable veterans and great young players, are turning out to be an incredible disaster. (Could that be partly Mike Dunleavy's fault?). But that still leaves nine teams going for eight positions: Lakers, Rockets, Hornets, Nuggets, Mavericks, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Trailblazers. So there is still hope for folks who can't stand the Nuggets for their fronting and for their massive wastage of money: there is still a chance they will not make the playoffs. If Oden and company can upgrade the currently terrible Trailblazers defense, they might eventually overtake the Nuggets for the last spot. Of course, I am jumping way ahead since currently the Nuggets are tied with the Rockets for 2nd best in the West! But come on, is there anyone besides a couple of Nuggets bloggers who think that the Nuggets can possibly keep their "we built this team from scrap iron, good fastening wire, and glue and we are winning in some unknown way" act up when we get into the coming months, each of which is more intense than the month before on the hardwood? The Nuggets are definitely for real right now. They have so far made the best of a very bad situation they put themselves in. But on the other hand, we are not even into December yet. So as someone who has predicted the Nuggets to be a .500 team at best, I am not yet really worried that my prediction will be completely wrong. But I do admit that it seems as of now that the Nuggets will probably get at least the 8th seed in a downscaled West. Unless Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and Nate McMillan can get together and figure out post defense and start to zone up when.....
It won't really be a good Thanksgiving for me unless the Hornets beat the Nuggets tonight. I was very steamed when the Clippers failed at the buzzer last night. With Marcus Camby missing a three no less! Dunleavey, you are a (can't say it in public, especially on Thanksgiving). Nuggets are back to back and are 1/2 a waiver wire scrap heap type team, so there is really no excuse for the Hornets if they can't win this game. Someone at ESPN thinks that CP3 and Byron Scott are "not on the same page." So I'm gonna tell em: Find a page you agree on, get on it, and win. The Nuggets failing to end up with a winning record starts now!
