http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR.HTM http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR1.HTM http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM Aldridge's +/- production numbers are especially surprising, given his brutal shooting slump. Is he quietly our best defender right now?
I'm convinced that if Portland can make a deal for Kirk Hinrich to replace SERGIO, and not Blake, this team could very well give LA a run for their money this season. I've been noticing the big difference from Lamarcus on the defensive end this year too.
I've been very impressed with his defense so far this year. The blocks he gets are one thing, but I've noticed him slapping the ball out of post players hands when they start to make their move on him down low, I think it was the game in NO where he must have stripped David West a few times right as West made his move to the basket, he didn't lose the ball but it caused him to throw up an awkward attempt. That plus his great speed on the perimeter for a 6'11" PF, allowing him to switch out and be one of the best full court press big men in the league, has me really liking how he's played so far on D.
This is not really a surprise to me. I believe the forum's track record will show that I was not concerned abut Aldridge's play even during his shooting slump. He is better all-around - while his rebounds are slightly lower this year - they are no-where near down as one would expect when he has to play next to two elite rebounders this year (Oden/Joel) and another very good SF rebounder (Batum and sometimes Travis). His defense has taken a swing up - and the quick-hands comment is right on the money. He is defintely playing better defense this year. And - the offense is much much better this year - even when he is not hitting his shots. His handle is much better, he he going kuch stronger to the close baby-hook this year and his passing is a lot more efficient.
I would rather trade Blake than Sergio. Blake and Kirk are repetitive while Sergio gives us something different. He's able to speed the game up and get guys easy looks. I've never been a big fan of Sergio but this year he seems to really have broken out. I'm not sure I would trade Sergio at this point.
Don't you think that Kirk is a more physical player both on offense and defense? I think the team would be better off in the Playoffs if they add that toughness and defensive prowess than keep Sergio's creativity.
Having Sergio operate with two absolute gunners in Rudy and Travis helps cover up his shooting deficiencies. Teams still know that he is seeking to pass, but as opposed to last year they can't focus on just one of his potential weapons. Joel catching the ball better and Frye spot up J bears mention too. STOMP
Aldridge has been here long enough that most folks should have known it was just a slump. He has had them before, as most players have, and snapped out of them before, like most players have. The real reason people were pissed, is because of losses and they were looking for somebody to blame.
Without a doubt Kirk is the better player right now. But what I'm saying is keep Sergio and send Blake back to Chicago. This gives them a good back up and allows us to keep our change of pace PG. Kirk does everything Blake does but a little better defender and penatrator. Really can't loose with Sergio, Blake or Kirk
My main concerns with Hinrich are twofold: 1) In the short run, how effective is he going to be after being shelved for three months? and 2) Is Hinrich more likely to play as the 06-07 version, or the 07-08 version this year and in following years? Blake is playing so solidly right now, and doing such a good job of steadying the offense (along with hitting very well from distance) that I'm not sure we could get better production out of a guard rotation of Hinrich/Sergio/Bayless. It might be worth taking the risk if you were willing to give up short run production and wins this year in the hopes of future production -- taking one step back this year to make two steps forward in succeeding years -- but you'd have to be willing to say this is a growing year and not freak out if the team stumbled down the stretch and missed the playoffs. I guess I just want to see how this team plays all the way up to the trade deadline, before KP pulls the trigger on any deals. Who knows, maybe some team will tank so bad that they go into complete rebuild mode, and they'll be willing to part ways with a healthy, good to great point guard.
I see. I just don't see us giving up Blake. I know it's a business and all, but he's the ultimate professional and team player. I'd really like us to win a championship with him a part of the team. Guess that's why I would suck at being a GM. I get way too emotionally attached to these players.
I have the same fears. I like what I saw from Kirk early this season. His shot was falling and he was a true leader on the court. I can't remember who it was, but he got up into someone's face, because they roughed up a teammate. This team could use that sort of leader.
One of my favorite YouTube videos is the Draft Lottery Party. I usually stop it after the 2 minute point, though, when I see two real Portland guys (Udoka and Jones) slapping fives, not realizing they were goners before Greg was even in Portland. Blake doesn't hold as much for me on the "sentimentality side" as those guys.
I don't understand all the commotion around Hinrich either. What's the big deal about him? Statistically speaking, he is about identical to Blake, and in many respects, Blake is playing much better than Hinrich this year. At this point it'd be a downgrade if we traded Blake for him. Is PG our weakest position? Probably. Is Hinrich the answer? Fuck no. Blake/Sergio will be fine for the next few years at least. After that, I'm hoping Bayless will live up to all the hype and become our guy.
Actually, statistically speaking, Blake is superior, by quite a bit. Unfortunately, Hinrich's defensive ability and hard-nosed play doesn't show up in a box score.
+/- numbers are nice in that they theorically take into account all facets of play including defense and intangibles that PER can not account for. The problem is they take a huge sample size (like a full season) before they become very reliable. There is just so much noise that it takes alot of data to separate cause & effect from hot & cold.
Look at all of the stats listed above, it's not just raw +/- it's also the stark difference in production when he's on the court and off the court. Furthermore, we're already 22% through the season, so the outliers are starting to be more marginalized and the sample size is starting to be statistically significant.
Man, I'm really wishing we had made some kind of deal for Chauncey Billups after the effect he has had on Denver. That guy has almost single handedly made them a contender again. From what I understand, they only wanted Iverson for his expiring contract anyway. Sigh.
