38 - 24 with 20 Games to Go - Acceptable?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Boob-No-More, Dec 28, 2008.

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  1. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Given our tough schedule, Martell's injury, and Oden's foot injury that contributed to his slow start - plus tying to integrate three rookies players into our top 6 rotation players, I'm very happy with our current record (which is why I shake my head at all the doom and gloom posts after every game).

    I do agree with Ed and Minstrel that I expect the Blazers to finish with more than 50 wins. As I said, my original prediction was 56 - 58 wins and given the easier schedule ahead and the fact that the young guys, especially Oden, should continue to improve, I strill think 56 - 58 wins is very possible.

    I also realize that it's a long season and things happen (injuries, shooting slumps, rookies hitting the wall with fatgue, etc.). So, if the team only wins 50 - 52, I'll be a little disappointed, but not overly so. As long as they make the play-offs it's a big step forward in this young team's evolution. I've enjoyed watching them grow this season and look forward to watching their continued growth and improvement.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Dec 28, 2008
    #21
  2. Public Defender

    Public Defender brigadier general

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    My expectations for this team remain about the same, which is that they'll wind up winning about 50 games. That is both what I believe is a realistic estimate, and what I think is a more than respectable finish to a season led largely by a single All-Star and a very young core. The only result that would truly disappoint me is if the Blazers failed to make the post-season entirely. Squeaking in at 7 or 8 would be fine. Reaching the top 6 would be gravy.
     
    Public Defender, Dec 28, 2008
    #22
  3. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I'm one of the optimistic homers who picked 58. If we go 19-12 over our next stretch, it'll probably be a bit of a disappointment for me just b/c we've played pretty well against the hard part of our schedule (and a few games left in that) and I don't want the same record against the "scrubs" of the league. We should make some hay against the poorer teams.

    That said, what will make me happy is pretty easy. Pick a strategy, and stick to it. If Nate/KP tell me we're going to stay with who we have and build for 2011, I want Bayless starting and making rookie mistakes and giving us increased chances to lose games. I want Sergio getting 15-20 mpg come hell or high turnovers. I want an offense implemented that does not involve standing around, even if we're creating turnovers left and right trying to get it. Oden gets the ball 20 possessions per game whether he likes it or not.

    If they tell me that they're making a big consolidation trade (haven't heard that term in a while, have you?), I expect that we play to win the game. Don't worry about feelings, but don't tolerate mistakes from people like Outlaw and Blake who should know better. Reign Sergio in some, have Greg work on being a defensive stopper, attack the boards every shot, get tough mentally.

    Right now we're in a limbo of saying let the cake bake while not actually doing the things you need to do to evaluate. Blake's not starting for us after this summer, and definitely not in Championship Run 2011 (which even the most pessimistic think is the goal). So what is there to evaluate? I understand if you say he's "teaching JB how to play selflessly". Great. Does he need to do that 30 mpg with an EFF of 12.5 (2.5 below "Average league starter")? Is Frye or Diogu going to be here after this summer? If you don't know, play to evaluate! If you do know, play them only when necessary.

    The things I complain about after games is stupidity by our veterans (who I count as Roy the All-Star, Blake, Outlaw and Przy) and lack of effort by anyone. Those are trends that have been going on for at least a year now. The "youth" of our team everyone likes to bring up also comes with a responsibility to never take a flippin' game off. I understand they've had a brutal schedule. That doesn't mean the Clips should bring it down to the wire. All the apologists of "we won, who cares" then wonder how we get our a$$es handed to us when we play good-to-great teams. You should be taking something from every game to improve upon, whether your average age is 23 or 33, whether you win by 10 or lose by 20. When these things don't happen, you'll continue to hear me harp on it.
     
    BrianFromWA, Dec 28, 2008
    #23
  4. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    We haven't, but that's because we fans simply ran out of things to talk about on that topic. Actual moves were always likeliest to happen closer to the trade deadline...more time to evaluate the team, more time to see who becomes available.
     
    Minstrel, Dec 28, 2008
    #24
  5. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    You're confusing two different terms and it's lead you to a false conclusion.

    EFF is an official NBA stat. It's a simple good minus bad sum of the basic boxscore stats (points + rebounds + assists + blocks + steals - TOs - missed FTs - missed FGs). It can be calculated for a specific game just by looking at the boxscore, or for the season by adding up the players season totals and dividing by the number of games played. There is no attempt to normalize based on minutes played or game pace. It's purely raw production.

    Blake's EFF = 12.5
    Sergio's EFF = 6.27

    PER is a more complex formula developed by John Hollinger. It does take into account minutes played and game pace. The exact formula can be found here:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

    This is the formula that attempts to equate a rating of 15.0 to an "average NBA starter".

    Blake's PER = 15.9
    Sergio's PER = 13.9

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Dec 29, 2008
    #25
  6. DaRizzle

    DaRizzle BLAKER

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    Believing the Blazers are gonna win 58 games this year is like believing there is a God! :drumroll:


    ...sorry, I couldnt resist, nothin personal
     
    DaRizzle, Dec 29, 2008
    #26
  7. MrJayremmie

    MrJayremmie Well-Known Member

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    Edit... not going to talk about it for the sake of this thread.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2008
    MrJayremmie, Dec 29, 2008
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  8. RayDavies

    RayDavies Member

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    58 seems like a BIG stretch to me.

    I will be very happy POR can finish with 50 wins, and possibly win a first round playoff series.

    If we can improve our defense,and/or increase our pace/FG attempts, I think that scenario is possible.
     
    RayDavies, Dec 29, 2008
    #28
  9. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Exactly.


    We got off to a much better start than most everyone expected, but now teams have scouted a bit more, and all of our flaws are being exposed.

    Some fans think it's wrong to point this out, but I think it's better to be a realist. Most teams will be able to shyut Portland down if they shut Roy down. It's that simple. Our defense isn't good enough to stop anyone, and we don't get enough easy baskets or free throws to make up for the loss of Roy's points.
     
    Mediocre Man, Dec 29, 2008
    #29
  10. chris_in_pdx

    chris_in_pdx OLD MAN

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    That has to be the most twisted and insane logic for believing in something I've ever heard.
     
    chris_in_pdx, Dec 29, 2008
    #30
  11. MrJayremmie

    MrJayremmie Well-Known Member

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    I would argue with you, but I absolutely refuse because it is pointless, and it will derail the thread.
     
    MrJayremmie, Dec 29, 2008
    #31
  12. Blazer_Hippie

    Blazer_Hippie Batum getting ballsy!

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    I predicted 48 wins at the season's start and thought we'd squeak into the playoffs. I would still be very happy if both those things happened. I would be a bit bummed if we did not make the playoffs.
     
    Blazer_Hippie, Dec 29, 2008
    #32
  13. MrJayremmie

    MrJayremmie Well-Known Member

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    I predicted 47-49 and an 8th seed. I think they will exceed my expactations and get 51-55 wins.
     
    MrJayremmie, Dec 29, 2008
    #33
  14. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Thanks for the backup, BNM. For some reason when I google "steve blake stats" the nba.com one comes up first, instead of the espn.com page for sergio, outlaw, and almost everyone else. Mixed up EFF and PER. Mea culpa.

    Taking that part of the quote out, and saying "average league starter" instead of "below average starter", would you still agree with the point I was trying to make? That if we're trying to "evaluate"/"see what we have"/"let cake bake", should Blake be getting 30mpg?

    I understand if someone says we're trying to "win the most games possible", and that "Blake's our steadiest PG". I get that. But that's not what KP/Nate are really saying. They say (alternately), that they're trying to "let cake bake", "run and keep defenses on their heels", "play good defense". Of those 3, none of those 3 (*subjective alert!) are Blake's strengths. He's pretty good in the half-court offense when he's not making mistakes and hitting the 3 at a ~42% clip. While he's not as bad as Jack at running the break, he's not getting us a lot of easy baskets. He's not really playing "good defense" (though to be fair, not many guards are on our team). He's not going to be starting in 2011. :dunno: I like Steve as a person, but I don't see him being a solution to our stated goals for the team.
     
    BrianFromWA, Dec 29, 2008
    #34
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