25-16 at the halfway point.

Well at some point dont all teams go from a young team that falls short to that team that gets "over the hump" or does it always take some intrigral veteren pieces for those young teams to get get over that hump??? The answer to that question will probably go a long way towards deciding how we want to handle trades now and going forward.

 

I predicted 47 (with Webster) and I think we are good for another 23 wins by looking at the schedule. 48 may not be enough for the playoffs but it will be close.

But to say this team is doing the same as last year is a little short sighted IMO. As pointed out we are playing 4 rookies and still have won 25 games at the half way mark. I am pleasantly surprised.

 

Leading by example...

You also "protected" nothing by Hollinger since it was, as I said then, impacted by subjectively unknowns such as "luck". He now says 50. Gee, what was the point of his initial prediction?

 

We are on pace for 50, and we also have more home games than away the 2nd half, and already got rid of our hardest stretch of the season (taking into account opponent, home/away, and time in between games).

I think we can break 50 barring injuries.

 

Our four rookies are averaging :

Rudy: 26.5 MPG for 40 games
Oden: 22.7 MPG for 35 games
Batum: 17.6 MPG for 41 games
Bayless: 11.4 MPG for 21 games

It's not like these guys are all playing 35 - 40 minutes per night. Rudy and Batum were both starters who played heavy minutes for their European teams. Granted, the schedule was shorter, but they are both used to playing more MPG than they are currently getting.

The more Oden plays, the better shape he's in. He's finally starting to get into game shape where he can play more than 24 minutes without kealing over. Unless Nate starts playing him 40 minutes per game, I don't see him hitting the so-called rookie wall anytime soon. In fact, I see him continuing to improve as the season progresses.

And Bayless played over 4x as many minutes last season in colleg than what he's played sor far this season in the NBA.

Given their roles and their PT, I don't expect our rookies to hit any kind of "wall". If anything, I see them continuing to improve (especially Oden and Bayless) with more PT and more experience.

BNM

 

Then what is the point of him predicting anything if the predictions change on a daily basis based on performance? He'd have best left luck out of his pre-season prediction as well if it is all performance-based. I found it an affront to the Jamesian approach to statistical analysis. Now it is revised upward to reflect reality. Revolutionary stuff there, Hollinger.

 

You display your incredible arrogance on a remarkably consistent basis, plus the name-calling and insults are a tell.

FWIW, I'm betting that Hollinger will be right on the Blazer win total when he revises his prediction again after all 82 games are played.

 

Time is on the Blazers' side. The more games these guys play, the more experience they have together. The more confidence they get. The more Roy will get superstar calls from refs. The more Oden will learn how to avoid fouling. The more Aldridge will recover from his early season slump. The more McMillan will be able to figure out how to fit guys like Bayless, Fernandez and Outlaw into the system.

How can a veteran team like the Spurs or Rockets really improve? The great players they had at the beginning of the season are still great. Really, all they can do is focus and work harder. Barring trades, they aren't going to get more talented.

Imagine the second half wasn't an easier schedule with fewer back-to-backs, with fewer pressure national tv games, with fewer games against playoff teams, with fewer home games. Imagine the second half was just as tough as the first half. Imagine Portland didn't have all those advantages. This team should still do better in its second half than its first half.

A young team with enormous upside should realize more of that upside as the season progresses.

 

In fairness, I can't think of a single "expert" who predicted that Batum would contribute this quickly, or that Blake would have a career year.

 

Hollinger compromised his own system by including things such as "luck" as a known variable.

Meh

 

I would just be happy if we make the playoffs. Record means very little to me, unless we're talking HCA.

 

I think we're on pace for a much better season than last. If anything, we don't have the "benefit" of that 13-game win streak at this point. In other words, without that streak, the Blazers would have been around 20 wins at this point last season.

 

And both players performed their best, by far, late in their rookie seasons. LaMarcus in March until he had to shut it down for the heart thing. Brandon in March and early April. Roy also averaged 9 MPG more per game as a rookie than Rudy is now.

While it may be psychological, I think the rookie wall, as it affects on court performance is largely a myth. Most rookies are young and dying for PT. If you look at most decent rookies (guys who finish in the top 10 in ROY voting and/or make 1st or 2nd team All-Rookie), you'll see their performance increase late in the season, rather than the other way around.

There's a learning curve to playing in the NBA, and most rookies take a few months to adjust before they fully hit their stride. And, I think that has more impact on performance than some mythical barrier.

BNM