Steve Blake

So he's been out for 8 games (as of this post) and in that time we've won 6. Now, there was only one great opponents in that stint (Cleveland). Utah is pretty good, but without Boozer or Kirilenko, it's not as quality a win. And only 3 of those were road games.

Still, Portland is scoring much more in the paint lately, as Quick notes:

Interestingly, Blake's name doesn't appear in the article, a surprise given that so much of the interior scoring is coming off guard penetration in Blake's absence.

Blake's injury and the timing of these wins is going to raise some interesting question at PG in the second half of the season.

The funny thing is that we've been through the three way point guard battle before, and not that long ago. We had the flashy point guard with the nice handle and the inability to finish at the rim (Telfair). We had the bruising combo guard with a knack for contact and a limited ability to set up others (Jack). And we had the three point shooter who plays a solid if unspectacular half court game (Blake).

Blake won that battle last time because he was frankly just a better player than the other two. And our team was younger and in need of a little "boring and predictable."

This time, however, Sergio is clearly a notch or two better than Telfair was for us. Bayless is stronger, faster, a better defender and a more aggressive full court player than Jack was. Blake, alas, has improved his three point shot, but otherwise is the same player he was.

And, maybe most importantly, Blake may be a decent PG for a rebuilding 45 win team, but not enough of what we need to be a 55 win team competing for home court in the first round.

When Blake eventually comes back, does he start? Seems likely, but if so does this team revert back to a jump shooting team? And how quick will McMillan be with the hook if the team sputters with Blake as a starter?

 

A point on the comparisons.

1. Blake 2008-09 >> Blake 2007-2008

He's been having a career year so far, so if healthy I'm not so sure you can fully justify benching Steve just to get Sergio and Jerryd some more minutes; I think it all boils down to how effective he is when he comes back and if he is able to resume his first half level of play.

I do think the play of Sergio and Jerryd complicates things since they both seem to offer the team very different looks and both have played pretty well (all things considered) and both are much more natural at pushing the tempo and making something happen in transistion.

Here's a thought: If Sergio and Jerryd continue to elevate their play and one or the other starts hitting their jumpers (OK, at this point that's probably too much to expect from Chacho, but Jerryd has the pedigree at least) does KP pass on Blake's team option this summer opting to go with Jerryd and Sergio as his starting and backup point guard next year, which gives him more cap flexibility?

 

I think this stretch is pretty good evidence that Blake ain't all that. Earlier this season Quick was writing that Blake should be considered the third best Blazer over the beginning of the season. Here's betting nobody will be saying that about the second half. (And, I hope, because Blake is playing for another team. Not because I dislike him - he seems to be a great guy. But we can do better, and we need to do better.)

UNLESS: Blake is watching and realizing what he needs to do. One game I remember Blake drove on the first two possessions and dumped it to Greg for back to back dunks. Then never again. Can he do more of that? If so great. If he's not quick enough, we need someone who is.

 

I think Nate will like moving Sergio back to the second unit. The question will be what to do with Bayless. Bayless is in a short window of opportunity to show if he can run a team. He has made some nice improvement in running the offense, but still gets nervous when trapped. If he can stay out of foul trouble and learn how to handle trapping pressure better, I would not be shocked to see him move on up some time this season.

But, Blake will start as soon as he is ready. I don't think his presence back as a starter will cause the team to revert.

 

I do think he should pass on Blake's TO, he really doesn't offer us much at all and doesn't get the team going ever really (other than hitting a three once in a while). Kill the isolation, Roy is not Jordan...yet

And Sergio's shot looks MUCH better than Bayless' lately, don't kid yourself.

 

With Blake out this road trip we should find out a lot about our back up PG's ability to replace Blake. So far they have had the luxury of weak competition and home games. Blake is having a career year but really average compared to the other starting PG's in the league.

 

Sergio's shot still looks fairly broken to me (that line drive delivery with no arc on his jumper) that's not kidding myself, he's just probably never going to be much of a shooter, Bayless on the other hand was a shooter and scorer at U of A and in high school so suspect he'll eventually be able to translate that ability at this level (For what it's worth: Sergio is still just at 37% on 2s and 22% on 3s for the month of January. Bayless' FG% on 2s is 36% and 19% on 3s for January, hardly what I would call MUCH better than Bayless -- both are bad however).

 

I wanted to bring up one point not brought up here. Normally when Blake starts, and Sergio comes off the bench, Greg Oden was getting in foul trouble regularly. Part of the reason, is our PG were getting burned all the time defensivly. Now since Bayless is getting time, that is not happening nearly as much. In fact, only 1 time out of the last 5 games or so I believe. If Greg is on the court, good things happen. Even in the Utah game 2 of the 3 team runs were when he was on the floor for a short stint. Players may score on Bayless, but the difference is that he is actually still between them and the hoop to defend them when it is done, not exposing a big to bad ju ju. When Blake and Sergio were getting the bulk of the minutes, our bigs were exposed 100% of the game to perimeter pentration. Now it is only 50%..


The other thing I would bring up is that if you go through the numbers, each guard brings different strengths to the game. But how many of you would think that with Sergio and Bayless (younger) on the floor that the number of turnovers per game for the team would go down? That is exactly what has happened, and the number is not small it is almost a reduction of 3 turnovers per game. That, is huge. I am not saying that Blake is responsible for those turnovers. But I am saying that maybe the team chemistry is a little bit better for taking care of the ball when they(sergio and bayless) are on the floor.

 

I hadn't thought about that to be honest. Now flip that around. In Janauary (when Bayless finally started getting some honest to goodness burn, he's averaging 3.7 foul shots in 18 minutes per game ... that's an elite level of foul shots, especially when you normalize that for a per 36 average.

So while not being the greatest distributor in the half court (he runs the break pretty well though) he has the added benefit of keeping his man in front of him protecting the paint and on the other end he's getting the opponent's bigs and guards into foul trouble.

 

I know everyone knocks on Sergio's defense but let's be realistic, some guys in this league are unguardable. It's unrealistic to think we can find a PG that can guard the Paul's, D-Williams, and Parker's of the world because there is no one. Sergio will never be a great on the ball defender but if he can learn to force his man into a sagging defense then we'll be fine with him.

 

Nice post.

A big reason for the downturn in turnovers is that Bayless and Sergio dominate the ball more. Other players tend to get the ball more when they are in scoring position (the low block, on a kickout), where they don't have to be creative.

Blake can be better for ball movement because he doesn't really try to create for anybody. The flip side is that if he isn't creating, you are asking guys like Przybilla, Batum and Outlaw to create more shots for others, which is bound to lead to more turnovers.

 

Yes, yes, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long.

Then again, Blake must see now what he needs to do to keep his job, and he's never been one to lay down.

But he's known all along Nate wants to get in the paint, so maybe he just can't.

 

Here's a question: when Blake is our (nominal) PG, does Brandon get to play PG more? This would be because Blake moves the ball more (see mook's post - incidentally, mook - did you see that the "holiday cottage" featured in Withnail and I is on sale?) and when the ball gets to Brandon it tends to stop, at least for a while. Whereas when Sergio is on the court, he's got the ball more. This also brings up the issue of whether or not we WANT Brandon using his "PG skills". I say no. They tried this with Jordan early on, and he averaged a triple double for the time he was the effective PG, but they didn't win until they moved him off the ball. Same for Iverson. They eventually moved Penny Hardaway off the ball too, and he averaged 40ppg one playoffs before injuries took their toll.

Where am I going with this? Answer: we've been acting on the assumption that we can have a player play PG for the Blazers who wasn't a natural PG (like Bayless) because Brandon would be our PG. But I think the fact that we've been successful with Sergio as our main PG shows that this isn't the case. (See also the Brandon/Chris Paul pairing in the All-Star game.) Brandon might not like being moved off the ball, but the fact is, the ball stops in his hands and he's much better as a scorer than as a distributor.

 

Sweeeeet. I'm sure it's free to those who can afford it and VERY expensive to those who can't.

Actually, it looks like Kate Moss is buying it, of all people:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/bizarre/article2170821.ece

 

This is pretty much what some of us have been saying for a while. That Oden's foul trouble can, in large part, be attributed to terrible perimeter defense. Enter Jerryd Bayless....

 

If Sergio could shoot even a modest 42% from the field and a marginal 33% on 3s and play good aggressive man-to-man defense I'd say make him the starter and don't look back ... that hasn't materialized to this point in his career. As for Bayless' prospects as a starting point guard, if he can even become just a moderately talented distributor (his passes were looking fairly crisp at times tonight) pairing that with his ability to attack the rim at will, draw fouls and play hard-nosed, in your face defense (he's got the attitude and quickness, but all of the savvy isn't there yet) then that could be a helluva starting backcourt -- assuming of course that Jerryd rediscovers his stroke from his U of A days.

If we're going to compare models for success I'm more inclined to look at the San Antonio model, where Parker and Ginobli could serve as pretty reasonable facsimiles of Brandon and Jerryd (or at least Jerryd in another year or so).

 

I've often thought before that if Sergio could even add a consistent jumpshot to his game, he'd be a clear candidate to start, but he hasn't. The guy just isn't much of a threat from the perimeter, and teams know it. His passing ability is valuable, but his inability to hit the jumper makes him a liability.

 

blake = bye bye. some of you are starting to come around but soon it will be clear.

for the same reason i don't understand why everyone has to be in a sergio vs bayless debate? the answer is both, as in they'll both be here for a few more years and blake will be re-nounced in the off season.

as for the SAS model, tell me again, where did KP work before coming to Portland? who has been the best franchise in the NBA for the last 10 years or so? for this same reason don't be suprised when KP takes over as coach, he's already had some run in that spot.

 

I don't think I've ever disagreed with you on a subject....ever.

I think this is the perfect explanation. Jerryd doesn't even NEED to get a three point shot. If you look at Tony Parker, he thrives almost completely on his ability to drive.