Mine has Roy +2.2 Outlaw at -2.3 points per 100 possessions. The 82games.com ratings weighted heavily for the current season, which increases noise. Here's the thing about +/-. It takes tons of data to begin separating one player from another - I mean like 3 or more seasons. Even then there is still enough noise that some players will be significantly underrated or overrated. Here is my top 30 from 2005 to now. Code: PlayerName Rating Off Def StdError Garnett, Kevin +13.9 +4.9 -8.9 1.5 James, LeBron +13.7 +11.4 -2.3 1.6 Bryant, Kobe +12.6 +12.2 -0.4 1.7 Duncan, Tim +11.7 +6.4 -5.3 1.8 Wade, Dwayne +10.3 +10.1 -0.2 1.6 Nash, Steve +9.5 +11.9 +2.4 1.7 Jamison, Antawn +9.0 +7.6 -1.4 1.6 Ginobili, Manu +8.0 +5.8 -2.2 1.4 Bosh, Chris +7.9 +5.6 -2.3 1.5 Kidd, Jason +7.7 +5.7 -2.0 1.5 Paul, Chris +7.6 +5.8 -1.9 1.7 Nowitzki, Dirk +7.5 +7.7 +0.2 1.6 Davis, Baron +7.4 +5.7 -1.7 1.3 Artest, Ron +7.3 +2.7 -4.6 1.3 Billups, Chaun +7.3 +8.6 +1.3 1.7 Terry, Jason +7.2 +6.3 -0.9 1.6 Ming, Yao +6.5 +0.8 -5.7 1.7 Carter, Vince +6.4 +5.9 -0.5 1.6 Aldridge, L +6.3 +2.9 -3.4 1.8 Quinn, Chris +6.3 +6.6 +0.4 2.3 Kirilenko, A +6.1 +2.1 -4.0 1.6 Harris, Devin +6.1 +3.8 -2.2 1.5 Ilgauskas, Zy +6.0 +1.6 -4.3 1.7 Pierce, Paul +5.7 +5.2 -0.5 1.5 Howard, Dwight +5.7 +3.3 -2.4 1.7 Wallace, Ras +5.6 +2.3 -3.3 1.8 Deng, Luol +5.5 +2.3 -3.2 1.5 Miller, Brad +5.4 +3.3 -2.0 1.5 McGrady, Tra +4.8 +4.9 +0.1 1.6 Lewis, Rash +4.7 +5.0 +0.4 1.3 *Negative defense is good defense. In that list you can expect one or two players to be overrated by +3 or more. Likewise one or two players who should be one the list were underrated by -3 and shoved off the list. And then you have even more players off by +/-2 and +/-1. Roy is hopefully underrated. Mine shows that his defense is not too good. Probably LA is one of the ones overrated. But I doubt Amare is better. The spread is too big.
1. I don't believe the std error reported by 82games.com. They weighted heavily for the current season but their standard error is as if it were 5 seasons of unweighted data. 2. Even with gobs (3.5 seasons) of unweighted data, the standard error is still high enough that a few elite players will look like somewhat good players and a few average players will look like very good players. And everything in between. Mine: Chris Paul +7.6 Dwight Howard +5.7 Kenyan Martin +2.5 Mike Dunleavy Jr +2.1 PS In case anyone was curious Code: Player Rating Off Def StdError Rodriguez, Sergio -6.8 -4.3 +2.4 2.3
And the fact that Aldridge is like 2 years younger, no? IN 2 years, we don't know how good LMA will be... Yep...
