Playoff seeding predictions, based on Sagarin ratings ...

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SodaPopinski, Feb 19, 2009.

  1. SodaPopinski

    SodaPopinski Tigers love pepper

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    OK. This is based on the Sagarin ratings, which I think are a fairly strong representation of where a team is truly at. I took LA and San Antonio out of the equation, because I don't think they are going to be caught in the playoff hunt.

    Denver: 10th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 10-11 vs. Sagarin Top 10, 17-14 vs. Sagarin Top 16

    Portland: 16th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 7-10 vs. Top 10, 12-15 vs. Top 16

    New Orleans: 12th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 10-11 vs. Top 10, 14-13 vs. Top 16

    Houston: 28th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 7-9 vs. Top 10, 14-13 vs. Top 16

    Dallas: 19th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 5-12 vs. Top 10, 11-16 vs. Top 16

    Utah: 30th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 7-12 vs. Top 10, 11-15 vs. Top 16

    Phoenix: 20th most difficult schedule in the NBA thus far, 6-12 vs. Top 10, 11-15 vs. Top 16

    I geeked out on this and made a fairly simple Excel spreadsheet and gave the S.O.S. double-weight as a factor to predict the rest of the season, because the record against the top teams is more relevant for the teams who haven't played the top teams as much. Here is the final conference breakdown that I came up with:

    1. Lakers
    2. Spurs
    3. Nuggets
    4. Hornets
    5. Blazers
    6. Rockets
    7. Suns
    8. Mavs
    9. Jazz

    Obviously there are a few variables that doesn't take into account. How are the Hornets going to play now that Chandler is back? How are the Rockets going to do after today's trade and now without T-Mac? How will the Suns play now that they have gone back to the fun-and-gun? Will the Jazz get a healthy AK-47 and Boozer back in the fold? Will Oden miss only a few games or several? Will Martell be a factor at all in the final month-and-a-half?

    Anyhow, food for thought.

    -Pop
     

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