I'm convinced Sergio has dirt on Nate

There is no way anyone can justify him playing over Bayless. There was no coincidence the turning point in the game was when he came in late in the 2nd to drive and dish to LA for the dunk and steal the ball on the ensuing possession.
I couldn't stop myself from grinning when the two old guys net to me kept referring Sergio to "dribble boy".
I will continue to lose faith in Nate if he keeps Bayless out of the rotation. It is inexcusable.

 

I've already lost faith in Nate.

 

I really like Bayless and I'm not a Sergio fan at all, but he isn't the worst point guard in the world (that honor goes to Goran Dragic this year) he is capable of running the offensive sets and getting the ball to scorers somewhat effectively. Bayless is still pretty erratic game to game and despite his peerless ability to finish at the rim or draw a foul he struggles to get people involved when it's a half-court set (he's great in transition).

I think the real reason we're seeing so much Sergio is that he has himself a 28 game audition to show this team that he worth keeping as a long term solution as either a backup or (very slim chance IMO) a starter. As long as he's not really hurting the team's chance to win when he's on the court he's probably going to continue to get the backup minutes. Pure speculation on my part, but some of this might be coming down from KP?

 

i agree with nik on this one. really bayless has shown us to be a one trick pony, he drives to the hoop, he rarely finishes and if he doesn't get a foul called he's worthless on the offensive end. he's a better defender but not the "lock-down" type that people want to make him out to be. and he has yet to prove that he can be the point in a half court set. roy can't keep up what he's doing for 82 games and handle the ball and create for others. sergio and blake have shown more ability in this area.

 

Actually, no we don't agree at all. Bayless is anything but a one trick pony -- he's just a very raw 3 trick pony, his drives are fine and he actually was converting at a very high rate (even when he wasn't drawing the foul), his passing has mostly been improving, but he isn't steady enough (yet) and he was a fantastic mid-range and long range shooter at Arizona, which tells me that he'll eventually rediscover that touch with practice and his comfort level increased over exposure to game situations. Furthermore his on-ball defense is actually really quite good, it's just his understanding of team defense that falters.

 

Sergio has no concept of team or man defense. I really don't know how you can use that argument when Sergio loses his man on every possesion.

 

According to Nate, Sergio has a better grasp of team defense than Bayless.

 

Here's my take on why Bayless should play more and sergio less. For the year, Bayless has taken 87 free throws to Sergio's 54. Sergio has a foul drawn rate of 6.6% while Bayless is at 19.3%. What this tells me is that Bayless puts WAY more pressure on the opposing defense then Sergio does. This is also with Bayless playing half as many minutes as Sergio.

Outside of Roy, Bayless is the only other player who can put that kind of pressure on the opponent. If we count on Roy to shoulder that entire load, he will get the living crap beat out of him. Since Portland is committed to playing a slow tempo game, the importance of getting to the line is increased.

Neither Sergio or Bayless are really starters yet. I just think Bayless's weaknesses are easier for other players (i.e. Roy handling the ball in the half court) to cover up then Sergio's.

 

According to the games, Sergio doesn't.

Unless running randomly and wildly around the court counts.

 

Yes, I'm sure he's a regular chicken with his head cut-off out there.

I swear I saw him talking on his cell phone when Bibby was getting easy buckets. Damn you Chacho!!!

 

Good metaphor. That's what he reminded me of.

 

let me rephrase what i said then, i agree with the parts about sergio not bayless. the guy has made 38.7% of his shots, he's not a great finisher and hasn't been a great shooter. could he be either/both of those things, sure but he isn't right now. he gets to the line, but teams have let him go wildly into the lane and he can't finish as easily as most would think. most of you on here praised hindrickson for his grades last week, what did he say about bayless? he's struggled to shoot from 1 to 23 feet. the guy isn't ready to run a team yet, and nate knows this. why would nate throw him under the bus and say he's not a good defender and gets lost out there if the opposite was true? jerryd may be a great player some day but today isn't that day and neither is tomorrow. you guys need to stop suckling at the teet that is bayless and let him progress.

 

This is the trouble with using full season stats, rather than looking at trends when it comes to a rookie. Jerryd was shooting a pretty dismal 25% in the little fits and starts of playing time he got in the first 30 games, which isn't too surprising considering he was getting 2 minutes here 6 minutes there. The telling stats for me are what he was able to do in each game after Blake went down. During that period his shooting percentage with extended mintues is 48%, and his shooting percentage on two point shots is 55%, factor in that he's generated 55 foul shots in 311 total minutes for a 6.3 per 36 foul rate and you discover in fact that Jerryd is an elite finsisher. Furthermore, Jerryd put up 41 assists in those 311 minutes for an assists rate of 4.7 per 36 which indicates a lot of growth from the beginning of the season and summer league to now; the key here is that his shooting percentage and assist rate climbed substantially when given the PT, they weren't flat and they didn't decrease. It's fairly inexcusable that you can't even do a little bit of basic research to back up your claims.

You're welcome to call this sucking his "teet" but there is some evidence to support the notion that Jerryd ought to be getting more of the backup minutes than Chacho. Personally, I don't really have a problem with Sergio getting the minutes because I realize this is make-or-break time for the young Spaniard; he's got 28 games (+ playoffs?) to show this team that he belongs here past the summer as a long term backup or maybe even as a starter, if he really starts to blow our socks off -- and I actually hope he does succeed, because he's cheap and if he does well enough he could make Steve Blake somewhat expendable, freeing up 4 million more in cap room or possibly facilitating a lopsided trade.

 

Are you watching games in some parallel dimension guy? Bayless is an outstanding finisher! He's athletic enough on defense that when he's in the game, our perimeter defense is not nearly as embarassing, with the opposing PG being able to penetrate at will, or pull up for wide open mid-range jump shots. He's also active in the passing lane and will come up with steals.

 

In the first half the Blazers had 7 assist. Bayless had 2 of them in 2 minutes of play.

Go look up free throw stats. Bayless has almost twice as many as Blake and Sergio combined even in his limited minutes. That shows an agressive player who attacks the hoop. It is also the style of play that even if a player is having a bad game shooting from the floor, they can make some gravy at the line.

It also shows that our other PG, do not attack the rim and draw attention enough. Teams hardly bother to defend them for the shot inside because they know Blake and Sergio are poor finishers. Just keep some moderate presure on them. Sergio will pass 90% of the time. Blake will as well. Why bother to play the shot, when you know your chances of getting burned by it are virtually zero?

 

This raises an interesting point about Jerryd. Did anybody else notice on that one drive where he came running down the court and attacked the rim from the left elbow drawing three defenders in the paint and how at the last possible moment he veered right dropping the ball off to LaMarcus for the finish and assist? That shows a huge adjustment to me; that he's garnered enough of a reputation as an attacker that he gets that kind of attention but more importanly he showed that could make a great decision on the fly and get the ball to the open man. He's pretty clearly to me our best point guard on the break ... so much for the Jarret Jack comparisons.

 

If Bayless was on another team, like OJ Mayo is on Memphis, he would have had much more attention by now. The only reason he hasn't, is because he is buried on the bench in Portland. This was a very talented draft. If Bayless was on a lower end team where he got minutes, he would be competing for R.O.Y.

 

Heh... I wonder what kind of dirt it could be...

I'm not a Nate-basher, but I do consider this to be one of his more puzzling ongoing decisions. The only thing I can figure is that the coaching staff made a conscious decision before the season to give Sergio a (long, extended) chance to prove his worth, and they aren't backing down from that. This seems to be inline with some of Nate's other quirks, such as his iron-clad substitution patterns.

 

I'm leaning this direction too ... and I think it's appropriate; KP (and Nate) likely want to know what kind of player they have in Chacho and the only way that happens is if he gets enough opportunities in game situations to give them enough data to say buy or sell. On the balance I think he's been 'OK' -- nothing special, nothing too detrimental to the team on offense and he hasn't been completely embarrassing himself on defense (though he still can't cut off dribble penetration and still loses his man on the perimeter at times) he's basically been an average backup point-guard who can pass a little, has shot so-so (better than last year at least).

Hollinger's methods aren't flawless, but his algorithms have pretty much nailed the kind of production we could expect out of Sergio this year, so take it for what it's worth.

Code:

SEASON	          FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2006-07 	.423	.808	11.5	4.2	10.1	49.3	40.0	14.1	19.3	6.6	14.17
2007-08 	.352	.658	11.5	3.7	7.8	42.3	31.6	13.6	20.3	5.4	8.99
[B]2008-09 	.385	.800	11.4	4.0	8.6	48.7	35.8	15.2	19.2	6.3	11.88
(projected)	.383	.654	12.8	3.8	8.3	46.5	31.8	11.8	20.4	5.479	11.28[/B]

 

Too bad grasping a concept is not the same as performing the task. Of course, Sergio has a better understanding of Nate's defensive schemes. This is his third season playing for Nate. But, when it comes to defensive execution, Sergio still stinks - and always will. He thoroughly understands the concept at this point, but still can't execute worth shit on the defensive end.

Bayless is a rookie. He's still learning the system. He's bound to make mistakes. It's part of learning the game at the NBA level. But, at least he has the athleticism and desire to play good defense. I'll take his hustle and effort over Sergio's conceptual grasp of team defense any day. The more Bayless plays, the more he'll learn and the better he will get.

BNM