I don't know if anybody else follows the blog nbaroundtable.com, but they've posted some well-written and interesting articles lately about the Raptors' salary situation heading into the next couple years. We all know that BC seems to have targeted 2010 as the year when he'll hopefully have a team set up around Bosh, so the information in these articles is pretty relevant. The first one they posted gave a general summary of how much cap space we can expect in the 2010 offseason, with a few notes and comments on it: You might notice that they refer to something called a "cap hold" on Bargnani's rookie contract. They're talking about the cap hit a team takes during the period after one of their rookie's restricted contracts has expired but before they have signed them to a new one or released their rights. This next article on that topic sheds a lot of light on the subject: As you can see, the Raptors' 2010 plans really do depend on them resolving the Bargnani situation ahead of time and avoiding that cap hold. It gives them the financial flexibility to execute the several simultaneous moves that they seem to have planned. In that last article they gave three ways Toronto could avoid the cap hold, and I think its safe to say the last two are out of the picture. With Andrea living up to his potential and figuring in this team's long-term plans, it looks like the best way to avoid the cap hold would be to reach an extension early. That, of course, leads us to wonder how much money Bargnani would be making in his first non-rookie contract. The blog's latest article addresses this topic:
It's a lot of reading, but you have free time it's worth going through. Bargnani's contract does present more of an obstacle going forward than I originally assumed.
Bargnani staying seems so legit now because of MG. Maybe trading for Marion helps us sign Bargnani this summer. (I didn't read it yet, if that is covered sorry)
I'm resurrecting this thread, because I don't think people really got the issue when I brought up the first time. The point is that, in order to maintain our cap flexibility, we need to come to an extension with him before 2010. That's really tough, because the guy is such an anomaly. Is this the sign of much more to come, or will he stay at about this level (or even regress again)? It's the same reason the decision to trade/not trade him is very hard to make. You'd like to keep waiting, see a larger sample-size of his play, and be more confident in your decision to retain him. But the longer you wait, the more his pricetag will increase (this article correctly says that he could command up to $10 mill). Do you take the risk to extend early and have a spectacular bargain/untradeable contract or do you keep on waiting and play it safe? I'm a big fan of Andrea's and I honestly have no idea when it comes to this question.
Those numbers don't include Banks either now that we traded for him. Looks like we should probably just stock up on talent this year (sign Marion, Parker and/or Delfino, and maybe even the best talent available for the MLE). I wouldn't be opposed to signing Bargs for $8-10 mill asap either. That leaves us the draft and trades to get better, instead of counting on free agency in 2010. Honestly, I'm A LOT more confident in BC's trading skills than free agent signing decisions anyways. We would then have two routes: 1. Package Ukic, our probable lotto pick, and Hump or Kapono for a clear upgrade at SG. See how far a solid starting five can get us. 2. Take the team as is to the deadline, at which point we would either trade our veterans to rebuild, keep the team as is and see what we can accomplish, or then trade our young talent for the best talents available.
