I played a little schedule maker and went through each team's schedule. I see Utah losing 10 more games and finishing 49-33 I see Denver losing 7 more games and finishing 53-29 I see PDX losing 5 more games and finishing 54-28 Utah's Schedule http://www.nba.com/jazz/schedule/ http://www.nba.com/nuggets/schedule/ http://www.nba.com/blazers/schedule/
Care to expand upon what games you think each team will win/lose? I wish I shared your level of optimism about going 16-5 over the final 21 games, but I think those are some pretty lofty expectations. Mike Rice had them going 12-9 over the last 21, which sounds more realistic to me. -Pop
By assuming losses to the three elite teams (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers) regardless of where we play them and assuming losses to other good teams on the road, I also reached 5 losses, which surprised me. Pessimism leads me to believe that they'll drop a few games (2-3) that they "shouldn't" which they won't make up by winning games that they "shouldn't," but still...it's a pretty favourable schedule remaining.
It's kind of scary to think that we might be willingly rooting for the Lakers on April 9th and 14th. Interesting note, we both are on a B2B when the Blazers and Lakers play. They're on the tail end (against the Nuggets in LA) and we're at the start of one (the next night against the Clippers in LA).
Yea, no prob Jazz Losses: @ ATL @MIA @ORL @PHX @PDX @DEN @NO @DAL @SA @LAL Total-10 Nuggets Losses: @UTA @PHX Vs.HOU @NO @DAL @LAL @PDX Total-7 Trail Blazers Losses: @ATL @CLE @IND @HOU @SA Total-5 (although I wouldn't be surprised to see @ OKC be a loss as well)
Also, I just don't see this team losing at home the rest of the way. The Lakers are the only elite team we see on the home floor and we have their number here in Portland. Utah will be on the 2nd half of a B2B while we have 2 days rest and I see a big rebound performance vs. the Mavs.
Utah is worse on the road than we are. Don't drink their kool-aid right now. They haven't beat many good teams and they have all been on the home floor. We'll see them come down to earth once they head east. And do you see their last 9 games? Yikes.
Utah has missed Boozer basically the whole season Deron missed basically the first month of the season Okur missed a lot of the same stretch Deron did and even Kirilenko missed a couple games here and there. They've been beat up and now they're healthy. They're scary. I think this is basically the first time all season they've had their full roster together.
That is all true. But of their recent 9 game streak, and 12 out of 13 wins, 2 wins have been on the road. The other 10 have been home games. They go on a long trip (much like we do next week) and have 8 out of the next 13 on the road and end the season 6 out of 9 on the road (similar to how the Blazers end their season). But their 6 on the road are tougher. The Jazz play Portland, Denver, Hornets, Mavs and Spurs, whereas the 5 Portland plays have only the Spurs and Rockets as playoff teams.
So? They're protecting home court, the same thing the Blazers do. Difference is Utah with all of their players healthy are a better team than Portland. They'll cool off a tad since it's hard to lose only 1 game in a month, but they're a very good team and I don't see them losing to Atlanta/Miami/Phoenix, teams they're much better than.
Better than doesn't mean they'll win. We're better than OKC, but they kicked our ass in OKC. We're better than Warriors but the same result happened. Phoenix is a tough place to win (although it wouldn't surprise me to see Utah win there). Same with Altanta and Miami.
Obviously there's no guarantee, but imo the chances of them winning those games seems very likely. I mean I hope they don't, but I think they will.
Frankly, I see the team finishing out the season around .500 which will probably just squeak them in as the 8th seed and third in the division (unless Dallas really implodes). *Edited
As things stand right now, 12-9 would be about the best we could hope for. Joel can't play 48 minutes a night, and every time he goes to the bench, our defense and rebounding take a significant hit. I don't want to think about what happens if Joel gets hurt!
I don't think we'll lose in Atlanta. But we'll probably drop a few we shouldn't. I don't know if Utah can win that many games on the road though - they're kinda bad on it like us.
Jazz will definitely fold. Only two of their 10 wins in the current streak were on the road. And they were against Minnesota and Golden State. They will now play 13 of their last 20 on the road against the likes of Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, and finally, the Lakers. I'm not worried about Utah at all. I'm worried about Denver. Denver has the tiebreaker over us so we have to be tied going into that final game of the season which I'm very glad is at the Rose Garden.
Lol. There's so much more to consider when predicting Utah's final record than just their road record on the season. While only two wins were on the road, those home wins included games against Boston and LA. You can't expect much more than 10 wins from 10 games including wins vs. last seasons finalists, regardless of where the game is played. Most of those games were fairly comfortable wins too. So right now, they're playing pretty darn well. And yes, the Jazz do have a poor road record (they did last season too). But at the end of the day your still playing basketball when your on the road. And right now, the Jazz are playing better basketball than they have at any point this season which has to chip away at that disadvantage of playing on the road. Deron Williams is playing at a ridiculous level, Memo can't miss from three, the bench is deep...it's all just clicking. And that's because of health, something that's avoided them until now which has to account for a significant portion of that poor road record this season. I'm not saying the Jazz will only drop one game this month, but their current form wont disappear entirely purely because they're on the road. They wont be as good, but they should still be a good team. Consequently they'll win some of those road games, which should be enough to get them the Northwest Division. Realistic, winnable games are ones like Atlanta. Utah have won I think nine of the last ten games vs. Atlanta including a blowout a few weeks ago, Miami at 33-28 aren't really anything special, Phoenix are doing their best to go to the lottery and Utah have won four straight season series vs. NO. Also, D-Will usually gets the better of Paul in head to head matchups. Then there's games against teams like Denver, Portland and Dallas. Who with the way they are playing right now Utah are simply better than atm, evidenced by their current climb up the standings despite a disastrous 2008. Being on the road just makes the home team probably the slightest of favourites. San Antonio is pretty much an automatic L though, haven't won there since the last millennium. I don't expect to take down the Magic or Lakers on their floor either. Another thing going in Utah's favour is that they're also experienced in high pressure, playoff atmosphere games with the current core having gone to the playoffs recently. Somewhere Portland hasn't been in a while (though you will get there this season). They also have seven home games left, and winning them all is a fairly realistic expectation with the only seemingly playoff bound team being Houston. That same team Utah enjoy knocking out in the first round and just took care of at home.
I agree with the 54 wins for the Blazers and finishing the season with 5 more losses. I think the folks who are saying 8 and 9 losses really aren't looking at the schedule very closely. Even if the Blazers go 8 and 2 at home, which I don't see happening, I really don't see them going 4 and 7 on the road to finish out the year, especially with some of the games they have left. Should be an interesting last game of the season against Denver. Could very well be for the NW division.
