Changing reality of the 2010 free agency (relevant to Bosh)

Chutney · Mar 10, 2009

The latest victim of the faltering economy: NBA free agency 2010.

Because of the changing economic landscape with the salary cap expected to decline substantially after this season and the possibility, raised at the All-Star game by union chief Billy Hunter and NBA commissioner David Stern, that the Collective Bargaining Agreement could be re-opened, some agents are starting to consider urging their big name clients to seek a contract extension this summer rather than opting for free agency in such uncertain times.

The growing likelihood now, say a growing number of NBA observers, is the big time free agents slated for 2010 are more likely to re-sign with their teams this summer than risk waiting and perhaps facing potentially massively reduced contract amounts and contract lengths.

It also suggests that the Bulls current plan may be the most prudent—one of stocking expiring contracts in case any big time player comes on the market from a team looking to shed salaries—while also remaining competitive. It raises the idea of the Bulls pursuing postseason trades rather than trying to get under the cap in 2010, like perhaps going for the highly likely available Chris Kamen.

"I'd think every prudent representative would be sitting down his guys and explaining there could be a lockout, a new CBA (collective bargaining agreement), and there's always the injury component," said former agent and Chicago based attorney George Andrews. "That maybe it's time to lock in security now. I don't see the CBA going up in any shape or form. You are unlikely to get more years than you can now and there's a pretty good chance the maximum salary would go down in a new CBA. You might even (with an extension this summer) get some language so you'd get paid if there is a lockout, something of a tradeoff for extending now. And from a team standpoint, you could tie up your best guy and he would not be any more difficult to trade if you wanted to go that way."

In fact, it makes almost no sense now for the big time free agents of 2010 like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to wait for 2010 and not extend after this season.

Consider this scenario, which is certainly possible: The players' association sees a looming lockout. I've heard some owners say they'd lose less money in a lockout than they are losing now, especially if season ticket renewals and sponsorships decline, which is expected. So the players want to make a new deal. The owners want a reduced ceiling on maximum contracts and shorter terms.

So now James or Wade goes to 2010, and instead of being able to add on five or six years to their deals which conclude after the 2010-11 season, they now are limited to, say, three years contracts with a lower maximum. Instead of the $17 million they'll now make in 2010-11 and be able to build up by 10 percent a year after that for six years it's a lower total and fewer years.

You'd say if they have any idea of the world around them, they'll jump at extensions this summer.

Andrews also is a former general counsel of the Vancouver Grizzlies, but in the high flying 1980s of the NBA was one of the so called super agents who help revolutionize the sport's economics. He represented Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Mark Aguirre and Doc Rivers, among others, and negotiated the groundbreaking $25 million deal for Magic which led to Michael Jordan's $25 million deal with the Bulls a few years later.

"If you can get the current (contract) rates and increases allowed, and then maybe you get a trade kicker, which might not be in a new CBA," offers Andrews. "The way things were going everyone thought the cap would be in the $60 million (range). Now maybe it's in the mid or low 50's. It will make it harder for teams to get cap room and sign (a second) guy because you won't (being under the salary cap) have your mid level exception. You'd be cannibalizing your team (to sign a big free agent).

"And then if you are (as a player) going somewhere, you have to ask yourself, 'Is it better there than it is here?'" Andrews said. "You might be able to retool after a year or two, but how does that help a guy's legacy to go somewhere and not be able to compete. The next step for someone like LeBron for more endorsements is to win a championship. Then he'd be even more valuable. How would going somewhere and being mediocre for two years while you try to build around him help?

"From a security standpoint and everything else, it makes a lot of sense to extend now," said Andrews. "You don't know what will happen if there's a new CBA. It wouldn't shock me to see Billy Hunter enter into something next season as he sees how bad things can get, maybe make a new deal before things bottom out. And his concern has to be not five or six guys, but the players as a whole. Who knows? Maybe the owners will want to get rid of the mid level and he can get a jump on that by giving them relief a year earlier and save some things.

"The maximum is correlated to the cap," Andrews noted. "And the cap is going down. Stern already has said that. How in the world would you expect to get more money with the cap going down, the numbers of years (likely) curtailed? Nobody could have anticipated this."

Any free agent who doesn't extend this summer could be taking a risk of losing tens of millions of dollars.
Click to expand...

Source: Bulls.com

Chutney · Mar 10, 2009

Normally Sam Smith's a pisspoor columnist, but I think he's spot-on with this one. These big name FA's (Lebron, Wade, Bosh) all opted for shorter contracts coming out of their rookie deals, with the aim to make more money faster. The thing is, a lot of the factors they took for granted then might have completely changed. The salary cap will certainly not be going up (will probably be going down), so they won't necessarily get to go to a team that sign them + another star. And then there's the very real possibility that the current CBA is restructured, and they won't even get the kind of contract they could get if they extend this summer.

Of course, that might apply more to Lebron and to some extent Wade, than Bosh. Both those players are in organizations with more proven front offices, and they have both experienced significant success. That might lead them to recognize their good situation and stay there. Bosh has much more of an incentive to leave, aside from the financials.

I love how this totally deflates the plans of teams like NJ and NY though.

BasX · Mar 10, 2009

This off season will be the most important one in maybe the history of the team. A lot of money to spend, A star "leaving" after next year, another star on the rise. And a kinda high draft pick.

BC, See these guys below:

James Harden
Willie Warren
Sam Young
Stephen Curry
Jeff Teague
Al-Farouq Aminu

You are going to draft one of them.

norespect · Mar 11, 2009

I don't see that it deflates NY's plan at all. Of course having a limit on the number of years of a contract is bad. Having the cap come down won't stop the Knicks from spending money. They are bullet proof and 100% immune to the slumping economy.

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Changing reality of the 2010 free agency (relevant to Bosh)

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Changing reality of the 2010 free agency (relevant to Bosh)

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Chutney MON-STRAWRRR!!1!

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BasX I Win

norespect JBB gotta nuke something...

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