Shawn Kemp gets sober, loses weight, and makes a triumphant comeback! On a more serious note: it's all down to KP. If he was honestly just waiting for the off-season to address the team's weaknesses, the Blazers should at least make the 2nd round. If he honestly believes in "let it bake"....what you are seeing now is about as good as it gets.
Really? So LaMarcus won't improve, Batum won't improve, Brandon won't improve, Rudy won't improve and (most importantly) Greg won't improve?
I agree that is something to keep in mind and not let us just assume we will make huge improvements every year. However, looking at the two teams it isn't too surprising that the Hornets didn't improve. How many players on the Hornets could have really been expected to improve? Chris Paul of course. But Chandler, West, Peja, Posey have all been around long enough that I would have been surprised to see them improve much, and thus, the team improve. Looking at the Blazers, I think it is very reasonable to assume that: Oden will improve by quite a bit Batum will improve by quite a bit Aldridge has room for improvement Roy continues to amaze by improving. Bayless could improve by enough to make our PG spot better. Most importantly, those are all guys that have been huge factors in our success (with the exception of Bayless) and not just guys sitting on the bench that have no way to go except get better.
Can any of those guys play PG? I expect Bayless to improve, but asking him to jump from his current level to starting PG is not realistic. Can any of those guys fix our weak perimeter defense? Batum is already our best perimeter defender, Roy's defense is about as good as it is going to be, and Rudy will never be more than mediocre. Will they help the team stop settling for jumpers? Roy isn't part of the problem. Rudy is, and is unlikely to change. Batum might help by developing into a good slasher. (I notice you didn't mention Webster's return. If he is handed a major role next season, that just makes the problem worse.) There is only one area of weakness where "let it bake" MIGHT be the solution. The team could show some improvement on the road, and in the 1st half of home games, as they develop maturity/professionalism. OTOH, adding the right vet won't exactly hurt that process, and might speed it up. Lack of experience is a big problem - but it is not the only problem. If KP honestly believes in "let it bake", and refuses to tweak the roster, this team is closer than you think to maxing out their potential.
We're still going to be very close to the youngest team next year...everyone gets older, but we lose Raef, possibly Ruffin, Frye, and Shav, and add one or two 19-21 year-olds. I'd like to see 2-4 more wins than this year, which should give us HCA in the first round. I'd also like to see one more round's progress than this year (if applicable... hey, we might go all the way! ).
how do you come to these conclusions? roy's defense is as good as it is going to be? that is very unlikely. the next couple of years are where roy should be able to make huge improvements defensively without sacrificing offense. look at guys like lebron, wade, kobe(really any big time perimeter player). first few years in the league they improved a lot offensively and then started adding better and more consistent defense to the package as well. i see no reason why not to expect something similar from roy. batum already being the best perimeter defender on the team doesn't mean he can't still make huge improvements there. and rudy is a rookie. expecting him never to improve any defensively is dumb as well. bayless getting more minutes helps the defense as well. yes, bayless improving and getting more minutes absolutely will help the team stop settling for jumpers. same with oden reducing fouls in his 2nd year along with his improved offensive post presence(both through actual improvements by him and through his teammates doing a better job of getting him the ball when he has position). and both of those things will help create more open jumpers(which are good things). i would also say that rudy likely is not going to stay almost exclusively a 3 point threat. he shows in flashes very good playmaking ability and it makes sense that as he gets more comfortable in the league that he'll more consistently use that part of his game.
