Greg Oden is the next "Rik Smits or Z"??

The obvious similarity with Z is missing his whole rookie season with an injury (Z is ahead of Oden in the second year - he played all 82, but then only played 5 in his third year, at which point most people thought he was essentially done), and perhaps the intended similarity with Smits is that Smits was widely viewed as a bust early on (especially for someone taken #2) because everybody kept telling him to put on weight and his body couldn't take it. Finally somebody (Larry Brown?) told him instead to lose weight for extra mobility and he had a very nice career thereafter. Of course Smits's game was completely different from Oden's (jump-shooter, not much of a shot-blocker or rebounder).

I still don't know what to think of Oden. Obviously he can be a dominant force on defense - maybe Mutombo-esque (although Mutombo blocks shots without jumping and thus is less easy to pump-fake) and he's still very raw on offense. Maybe a young Dwight Howard? He's bigger but probably (after surgery) less athletic. But Howard is also fairly clumsy on offense.

The hopeful comparisons are Ewing and Duncan. Both of them were VERY awkward when they were starting out, but had their entire college careers to work on their games. So I'm plumping for a more athletic (better-looking) Ewing.

 

He has shown a bunch of promise...

Right now, if he can correct these 2 things by the end of the year... foul trouble and keeping his energy high throughout the game (like he has been recently, specially that 1st game back vs Indiana)

And then if he doesn't have major injuries, I think he can easily turn into a top 3 center in the league and a 17ppg, 11rpg, 2bpg within probably 3 years, imo. And I also don't think that is his ceiling... especially not from the things we've seen from him this year (albeit inconsistant)

 

I'd like to see Greg put a little more trust in his jumper. I think I've seen him use it once, and he made it against Miami at home earlier this year. He's got a nice soft touch at the free-throw line. Right now, it's either a jump hook with either hand or a dunk.

Hopefully he can develop something like that out to 10-12 feet. That'd make him that much more of a beast if teams have to guard against it. But I guess it's small steps at a time.

And I think it's wayyy too early to tell what type of career Greg will have, and who he'll be like. But after last night, I'm very encouraged.

 

Let's hope so, because Shaq 's career has been 100% dependent on refs allowing him to play like a thug with no fear of being called for the basic fouls which limit all other player's games.

No player in the history of the game has ever succeeded with so few skills and so little talent.

In a league reffed by machines, Shaq would be ranked just ahead of Mark Eaton, and have the same number of rings.

 

Greg will be remembered as one of Portland's Big 3 Centers, along with Bill and Sabas.

 

One can never project a player among the several greatest ever, but I don't think it's true that he's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid, making such a career impossible. His athleticism is spectacular...it simply hasn't been on display this season due to his recovery from microfracture surgery. His pre-draft numbers were remarkable. They compared well to Howard, despite Oden being much larger than Howard was when Howard was drafted.

One can already see plenty of flashes of remarkable dynamicism from Oden. He simply doesn't have it all the time. Supposedly, he will next season.

It won't be bad, no, but I think you're selling Oden's talent short. Oden is already showing more, offensively, than Mutombo did in his prime, and Oden is still very raw. I think Oden has the potential to be a Defensive Player Of The Year force on the defensive end and an efficient offensive force akin to Tim Duncan. Just with greater size and strength.

 

I think Greg can easily be 17/12/2 next year. You get the guy 30-35 min. and I don't think those numbers are a problem. Improving with the foul trouble is going to happen next season for sure. Injuries though are always going to be a question mark. Let's hope for the best.

 

That's what he meant.

 

I'm hoping for Mutombo/Mourning level. I'm expecting Dale Davis.

 

It begs the question...if Oden does develop into an amazing center and deserves 35+ minutes a game, where does that leave Joel? As much as I love Joel, I think after Oden blossoms into the center we want, he gets traded. I seriously doubt he'd want to accept less money and playing time as much as he loves Portland and honestly, he's a great starting center for any other team.

 

Why on Earth would Przy be traded? The one thing that Oden has proven more than anything else is that he tends to miss games with injury. Having Przy behind him is crucial IMO.

 

I don't think Przybilla would start on "any" team, but at least half the teams.

Portland owns his Bird rights, so they can offer him more than anybody else. I suspect Paul Allen will find it pretty easy to lay out the cash for the best backup center in the league.

As for minutes and getting a starting job, well, Przybilla has never been a big-minute player. Even he must realize that at his best he's a 25 mpg guy.

You try to play him 35 mpg regularly, and he'll get injured or tired. How many times can a 7 footer be expected to dive for loose balls in a season?

 

There's probably only about 5-7 teams that wouldn't want Pryz to start for them. Would it really be worth it to have a somewhat expensive backup for "just in case"? There is a thing called salary cap and with all the young talent we have to re-sign, I'm not sure if Joel will be part of it when he's not necessarily needed. If Oden becomes even close to what we expect him to be, he'll be getting 35-40 minutes a game. That means Joel will get 8-13 minutes unless Oden gets in foul trouble. I'm not sure he's willing to accept such little play time.

 

We could have the twin towers at times too. Offensively that might not be great, but imagine the D! We could certainly play big that way.

 

Yes. Neither Joel nor Greg have proven to be ironmen to this point in their careers. Having both of them, has us covered if/when one is injured. Also, when both are healthy, neither needs to play 40 minutes. Thus, foul trouble is less of an issue, as is fatigue - which reduces the chance of injury. There are PLENTY of overpaid big men in this league that make more AND produce less than Joel. I think he's a vital piece for this team's championship aspirations.

There's also this thing called Bird Rights. The Blazers have the Bird Rights on all their young players, plus Joel, etc. They can re-sign them all for any amount up the max. contract without concern for the salary cap. In fact, Paul Allen can max out all 15 roster spots if he so chooses. He wouldn't, as that doesn't make sense, but anyone he wants to keep, he will ragardless of the salary cap.

I don't think Oden will ever be a 40 MPG, 82-game per season player. Few players are. In fact, there isn't a single player in the league this season averaging 40 MPG. Given Oden's injury and foul troubles, I just don't think that's realistic. There's also very few players who are averaging > 35 MPG who haven't missed any games. Point being, there will be plenty of games over the course of the season where the Blazers back-up center will get more than 15 minutes, and in many cases more than 20 minutes.

Joel has never been the type to cause problems over PT. He didn't complain earlier in the season when Greg was starting. In fact, he thrived - knowing he could come in off the bench and be aggressive without worrying about foul trouble, fatigue, etc. If both players are healthy, and Oden lives up to expectations, I could see Oden getting about 32 - 34 minutes which leaves 14 - 16 for the back-up center. If you factor in injuries, foul trouble and an occasional twin towers line-up, it wouldn't be difficult for the Blazers back-up center to get > 20 MPG. Which seems about right for Joel - especially if we're talking 2 - 3 years from now when Joel's current contract is up and he's 32 - 33 years old.

BNM

 

Don't forget that Nate has (briefly) experimented with a twin-towers lineup of Greg and Joel. This isn't so far fetched if LaMarcus is in foul trouble or injured, because Joel actually guards the best low-post player, be he PF or C anyway, and Greg should also be capable of guarding the more lumbering of PFs.

One of them should consider developing a jump shot, though.