John "PER" Hollinger has a new stat - VA (or "value added"). According to this stat, Brandon is the 6th best player in the league (now ahead of Tim Duncan), and Kobe Bryant should not even be in the MVP discussion. Also Greg and Rudy are the 10th and 11th best rookies, and Brook Lopez is ROY. I don't know what to think about it, but its ranking of PGs is interesting: turns out that a PG better than Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon or Derek Rose will be available on the FA market this summer...
for the morons who said we dont need miller... please watch mondays game a few times. those same morons think "sergio" is the future andre miller would be a MASSIVE UPGRADE AT PG... blake backs up and bayless watches.
Value Added seems to be a complement to PER. PER is basically an efficiency stat...it tells you how effective the player is when he's on the court. VA is a cumulative stat, so playing more minutes makes a huge difference (as it should...not playing reduces your value a lot). Thus, Oden is great by PER but, since he can't stay on the floor for big minutes, his VA is poor.
Some interesting notes. LMA rates quite well. Neither Oden nor Joel rank in the top 20 for centers. Durant is second, albeit a distant second, at SF. I hope we can somehow make a play for Miller. Will we have enough cap room? Can we lure Philly into a S&T? Forget "bake it".....let's shake it (up)!
Exactly. Some fans are fixated on Oden's occasional bursts of good play. This metric is slap upside the head from reality. Over the course of the season, his contribution to the team has been alarmingly modest.
Not really. Not very many people have been arguing that Oden has been a tremendously valuable player for the whole season. They've just been pointing out that he's been excellent when on the court, so hardly a bust from a talent point of view. His main problems have been fouls and injury. Fouls are almost sure to disappear as a problem over time, as he gets experience. That leaves injuries as the concern. None of us know the future on that issue, but it's at least nice to know that when Oden is healthy, his talent is as advertised.
Are you kidding me? His impact on the game when he's in is huge. It doesn't always show up in the stats, but GO is a remarkably effective player when he's in the game. Only injuries and the striped shirts are keeping him from complete dominance.
it would be incredibly dumb to base any decisions on one game. for the morons who say the blazers need andre miller, please watch the nets game that bayless took over a few times.
What? Andre Miller playing well in a contract year? No fucking way! That has never happened before...
I don't think he isn't saying his contribution when in the game is modest, but that his contribution to the Blazers, overall this year, is modest. I don't think most reasonable people will deny that when in the game (with some exceptions), Oden has a pretty significant impact. The issue is not his impact when in the game, but his TOTAL impact which, this year, has been "modest" due to either injuries or fouls which have limited his time on the court. If Roy suffered the same injury/foul issues, we would all agree that when on the court, he has a huge impact; but that due to the fact that his time on-court is limited, his total impact (toward seasonal success) is modest. If a highly effective player can only play a short period of time each game, his overall impact on the game is thereby limited. At least, that is how I interpret OMG's comments. Gramps...
I like this concept of Value Added more than PER, how long one is on the court should indeed be taken into account. I haven't see his ratings for past VA seasons though, I'll hold off complete judgment until I get a better look at that. It seems it still does not account for defense though.
Oden's "Estimated Wins Added" is 4.0, though. Given that we're 3 games better than we were last year... that's pretty dang close to reality. It's probably that close because Channing Frye was his replacement, and is a 12th Man Off The Bench guy. I wonder if you can take the 4.0 EWA, divide by his games played, then multiply by 75 or 82 to get how his season would have been without the injuries...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangulation_(social_science) My position: Stats can be flawed Human cognition can be flawed Stats can be valuable Human cognition can be valuable Because both of these things can be flawed or valuable, use both of them in conjunction to form your opinion. Using one in isolation leaves you more prone to errors in judgment.
his PER is 19.1 all the way up from 18.4 last year... he's missed a total of 5 games in his 10 years in the league With a career PER of 18.0, maybe dude is pretty good? http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millean02.html STOMP
I like the idea of both. It's good to have both an efficiency measure and a value measure. Oden may not have been hugely valuable this season, but his efficiency shows that he certainly can be when/if he plays more minutes.
I don't understand John Hollinger. He has Russell Westbrook ahead of Derrick Rose in the rookie ratings despite Rose dominating Westbrook the week before, but not only that, he now has a higher PER than Westbrook! Be consistent in using your own stat for goodness sake.
Fairly useless stat for measuring players, but maybe helpful in rating a coach's decisions, since he's the guy who decides how many minutes each player plays. Making it even less useful is the disparity of depth from team to team, so one team may only be able to play 6-7 guys big minutes while the Blazers and some others could easily play 10 guys every night.
