The problem, as always, is that it’s still incredibly hard to build a team even if you’ve got several good players. The right mix is very important, and with all the salary restrictions, it’s really tough to replace guys. Like, Noah would be the last guy I want to trade if I’m getting Bosh (next to Rose, anyway). But if I’m Toronoto, he’s the first guy I want, since he seems the best possible fit next to Bargnani (and financially) of the guys we can offer. So what gives there? I guess if we’re the Bulls and we’re not dreaming, we say sure, include Noah. We’ve got a fair chance of continuing along for the next 3-4 seasons with Brad Miller playing pretty good ball. What else does it take? I’d happily give up Deng, Salmons, or James’ contract. What would the Raptors want? Financial relief, an older, flashier player on a 1-2 year deal, or a younger player who costs a lot more both now and in the short-run, but seems to fit in the high-risk, high reward category. After thinking on it, I’d think it’d have to be one of those guys and not Gordon, because with Gordon we’d need to wait well into free agency to get something worked out. The Raptors, it seems to me, would most obviously want Gordon if they’re intent on keeping Bosh. Without I’d think Salmons is a cheaper short-run bet as a scorer. So if I were to guess about a trade the Raptors would accept, I think it’d be something like Noah, Salmons, and picks. If they evaluate Deng highly and think he’s recovered, perhaps they’d prefer him. So now let’s figure out how to build the Bulls going forward. Even good trades create issues that need to be solved. * We’re basically looking at Miller as our center. Eventually we need to find and groom a replacement since he’s significantly older than the rest of our players. Maybe that’s who Asik is. * We still need to re-sign Gordon and consider financial moves accordingly, because it’d be downright moronic to make a move for a guy like Bosh and then turn around and let our historically good 3 point shooting guard walk. Part of the KG deal was Boston simply looked at it with open eyes and said yeah, if we get this guy, we need to pay the tax to put a good team around him. I don’t know if the Bulls would do that. They didn’t want to go that route a couple years ago (when we signed Wallace and immediately did a salary dump of Chandler instead of loading for bear). * And we’d face an increasing dilemma about what to do with Tyrus, since we’ve got a year left on him, but we’ve pretty obviously given his spot in “grand scheme of things” to Bosh. * We haven’t even addressed coaching, and the biggest concern therein, how to get Deng’s mojo back if he’s sticking around. I tend to think those problems are solvable ones, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they would actually be solved. I suppose my best case but still somewhat realistic scenario would be: 1. Miller holds up for another 5 years, and after next season we re-sign him to a 4 year deal. 2. We simply sign up Ben and don’t skimp on veterans. Pay the tax this year. I guess in the alternative we try to unload Deng (and replace him with an MLE signing at half the price?) or Kirk (and hopefully have enough saved to get a passable vet guard as a backup as well as signing up Gordon). 3. Perhaps we can turn Tyrus into another useful set of assets somehow. A pick or picks, a promising guy on a rookie deal? Perhaps we solve the problem raised in point 2 by using Tyrus? 4. Coach Del Coacho… well… he’s getting better. Or the players are playing better despite him. Probably more of the latter, it’s really sort of beside the point here, since it’d be a similar discussion under any future Bulls scenario . In short, reality would probably dictate lots of compromises, but I can at lease imagine might make sense.
Do you really think if the Raps were trading Bosh they'd rather have Noah, who at best might be 8 and 12 guy, instead of Tyrus, who could be a 20/10/3 blocks guy? Really? Bargnani has a much better chance of guarding the centers in the league than power forwards or small forwards who are usually quicker and more athletic. You really don't see Tyrus as the better and more sought after asset at this point?
I read the other day that Bosh is disliking the city of Toronto because of the way their media portrayed him as a deadbeat dad. My offer for Bosh? Luol Deng or Jerome James (Raptors have to choose whether they want talent or cap space), Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, both 2009 draft picks and a 2011 draft pick. We'd be left with, let's say they take Deng: PG-Derrick Rose/Kirk Hinrich SG-Ben Gordon/Kirk Hinrich SF-John Salmons/Tim Thomas PF-Chris Bosh/Tim Thomas C- Brad Miller/Aaron Gray Somewhat weak bench. A bit stronger if they want James instead of Deng. But we have Asik coming over in 2010. (He's actually already over here, working with Bulls staff....). And then just sign a guy for a partial MLE, LLE, etc. to help fill out the roster.
wow, I'm pretty sure they'd take that deal. I'm also pretty sure Paxson would be fired if he took that deal to Reinsdorf.
Why? PG-Derrick Rose SG-Ben Gordon SF-John Salmons PF-Chris Bosh C- Brad Miller That's a really good starting lineup. You have basically two superstars in the lineup with Rose/Bosh as long as Rose pans out, and two great scorers in Gordon/Salmons, and a great passer to facilitate them in Miller. We'd have Kirk off the bench, Tim Thomas as well who is effective. Maybe Luol Deng too. We could sign another big man with one of our exceptions. And we'd have Asik in one year anyhow. Thomas/Noah combined could potentially be better than Bosh, but if you can add a piece like Bosh, you have to do it, even if it means getting rid of two good big men.
First, That's a really good offensive lineup, a mediocre defensive lineup at best, and no bench. That team struggles to get to 45-50 wins and maybe the second round of the playoffs. And we've seen the last two games what happens when you can't play defense. Second, that's way more than the bulls would need to give up to get Bosh. Toronto doesn't have the leverage if they think Bosh is going to leave, and that's the only reason they'd be trading him, because they are perfectly content to build around him. So the question becomes does Paxson have to give up both Noah and Tyrus to get Bosh. In a package with Salmons, who's probably 3rd on their list based on salary and performance, that's just too much in my opinion. Maybe if they take Deng for salary reasons and throw in bodies you could do something like Deng, Salmons and TT, but that leaves the bulls pretty unathletic on the wing. But it doesn't make sense to keep Tyrus if the bulls trade for Bosh. Then the bulls would have two point guards, two PF' and a sixth man if they resign BG. That's an even worse mix.
No, and I'd boil it down to several reasons. 1. The finances are important. Tyrus is due for an extension, and Noah has two years of cheapness left. In this economy and with a rebuilding team (which they are if they trade Bosh) that makes a difference. Not the only reason, but it's a factor, especially when Thomas isn't exactly a sure thing. 2. Noah is a better defender and rebounder than Tyrus. He's a better passer than Tyrus. He seems complimentary to Bargnani's perimeter offensive game and stay at home defensive game. Playing with him would free Noah to defend PFs, where his (lack of) bulk gets him in less trouble and he can bring help. Offensively, Noah can feed Thomas and play under the basket without mucking things up. 3. Tyrus, on the other hand, seems offensively similar to Bargnani. Just like Tyrus and Bosh seem like an iffy fit to me, Tyrus and Bargnani seem like an iffy fit (for that matter, I think Bargnani and Bosh are an iffy fit, which is is one of many reasons the Raps have problems). 4. I'd assign quite a bit higher probability to Noah reaching his potential than Tyrus reaching his potential.
As far as Tyrus/Noah/Salmons for Bosh? I'm pretty sure I'd do it, though it'd leave us with lots of work to do. The reason I do it is that it still leaves us with 2 of the “big 3” we’d want. I'm sure we'd disagree, but I'd consider Gordon as capable of being that third guy in this particular context. He wouldn't be that guy on every team, but on this particular team, I'd go with it. If I were gonna blueprint a Bosh to the Bulls scenario, something on the order of: Bosh ~ Garnett Rose ~ Pierce Gordon ~ Allen Deng ~ Rondo Miller ~ Perkins Hinrich ~ Posey isn’t a completely ludicrous comparison. Of course, I dunno if we could obtain Bosh without giving up any of those guys, much less keep Gordon and the rest on top of it. It's just a thought to get the ball rolling. Of course, there are lots of problems with this comparison, lest anyone get the idea I’m ignoring them. The main problem I see with that comparison is that both Pierce and Rondo are capable of being absolute defensive monsters. Deng is a very capable team defender if healthy, but when Pierce actually tries he’s a stellar player. And at this point Rose isn’t anything close to Rondo as a defender. For that matter, Noah is a good defender, but he’s not the sort of super strong guy that Perkins is. So I dunno. I actually think that hypothetical Bulls team could be a better offensive team than the Celtics, but I’d be concerned some the additional firepower wouldn’t amount to much in practice. On the other hand, I’m quite certain they’d be worse defensively (though I do think they could come around to being a good- but not great- defensive team). If we're trading Deng and keeping Salmons, then we close one door but open another. I’ve made it fairly clear I’m not a big John Salmons fan, but this is certainly a nice lineup. I agree it's defensively challenged. But I think there are ways to fix that. Down the road, I’d be trying hard to get a guy I really liked as a defender at the three. Childress, Brewer, Battier, someone like that. Perhaps with Bosh, Miller, Salmons and Rose, Kirk will fair better in knocking down open threes? I’d still prefer my Gordon here because as I’ve said I think he’s the Ray Allen to Bosh’s KG, but I’d take it and hope it works out. Gordon is the only guy there that can really score in bunches and his distance shooting will add another dimension, so you need him. But defensively, there'd be lots of options for getting better at other positions. Add one of those guys I mentioned with the MLE or a trade, and you can field a very good defensive team with Kirk and Childress/Brewer/Battier when you need to. It's not as good as Boston, probably, but it's also a fairly young team that can grow together, develop chemistry, and I can at least imagine the replacements coming in for the older guys (Asik/picks for Miller, an MLE defensive guy for Salmons). Project that a couple years down the road, hope Rose develops as we think he can, and I expect it's as good as we can expect.
I agree with trading Salmons/Noah/Thomas which is need be. We'd have a good trio in Rose/Gordon/Bosh that we would have just consolidated into. With Deng/Hinrich who could arguably be part of our core. Vets like Brad Miller and Tim Thomas would still be around, and I'm sure we could sign some more.
Can't say that I agree. All signs would point to Colangelo liking a player like Thomas better than a player like Noah. When has he ever signed a guy that was more of a defensive specialist? Seems to love his tweeners. While the extra year of cheap play is nice, it's not enough to switch a GM's mind if he likes the younger guy with the higher ceiling. Also, can't say I agree with your analysis on the fit. I think they need a flyer on the court next to Bargs. I'm not sure how Noah's lower ceiling is a selling point.
I probably didn't say that well, it's his higher floor I'd see as a selling point. In any case, if Colangelo prefers Tyrus, that, in my opinion, works out better for the Bulls, so I'd be happy to keep Noah and give Tyrus
If the 22 year old Tyrus keeps developing like he has this year, and he's come a long way, he's still only going to get a deal for about 60% of what Bosh's likely max extension is going to be. But if Tyrus keeps progressing, and I think he will, he's going to give a team ~80% of what Bosh does. Tyrus has been averaging ~14/8 the last two months. Just as an aside, I really don't understand how you don't see Tyrus as making great strides, but consider BG consistent enough to want to keep. They're both similar in that they have some big holes in their games for their positions and are maddeningly inconsistent. To me, Tyrus is the guy who's on the upward trend. BG plateaued two years ago (his new found fast break scoring abilities notwithstanding.)
I think we know what we are going to get out of Ben Gordon. Around 20 PPG on a really good efficiency, with average defense and silly turnovers. Out of Tyrus, who knows? He's not really a good offensive player (52.2 TS%), but he's getting better. You can see the raw jumpshot and driving ability that could make him a really effective offensive player. But we don't know whether he will refine that to become efficient and at a higher volume. He's a great shotblocker, but not really a good man defender. Chris Bosh, you know what you're going to get. And you will have consolidated a core of Hinrich/Rose/Gordon/Bosh and Deng/Salmons. If you look at the great dynasties like the Spurs, it's all about the core, the role players for the most part are a revolving door.
I think if you guys are able to keep Deng and get Bosh, that's a win. A nucleus of Rose, Deng, and Bosh is pretty damn good, and that's with or without Ben Gordon. It might even benefit you guys to miss the playoffs and get another lottery pick just to see if you can find a better option at the two. Obviously I haven't seen enough of the Bulls this year, but just from what I've seen, I think that core would be a nice start, and could easily be in the top four or five in the east next season.
My main concern with that would be they won't be able to space the floor worth a lick, but yeah, of course if, say, Gordon and Tyrus gets you Bosh, then you darn well ought to do it. As far as Tyrus and Gordon, Gordon has plateaued at "well above average player" and "amazing three point shooter". Tyrus is on an upward track from "sucks" to "mediocre" to "maybe he'll be a well above average player but no guarantees".
Well above average? If points per game is all you care about, then maybe and even then 20 pts/game isn't that special... And BG is currently third on the team in 3pt fg % for guys who are legitimate shooters (Hinrich and Salmons), so spacing the floor won't be a problem. BG doesn't really help spacing that much anyway because he puts the ball on the floor so much now. If he'd catch and shoot more, the spacing would be better, but he doesn't. Plus anytime you have Noah out there you are going to have spacing issues.
