That is definitely pure fantasy. I mean, yeah, if you're able to feed Oden for open dunks 17 times a night, of course he's going to score a lot. But that's just not the reality at all.
Yes, but as I stated in my original post, the two reasons he can't currently play 36 MPG (foul trouble and conditioning) are correctable. Given time and experience, he will improve in both of these areas. And, as he does his minutes will go up and the number of clueless sports writers calling him a bust will go down dramatically. BNM
You all noticed the comment about Oden, I noticed the absurd theory that this team could only win back-to-back titles if we find a legit center.
Yes, I clearly stated it was pure fantasy at this point. However, your implication that Oden only scores on "open dunks" is inaccurate. He has 81 dunks this season, that accounts for 162 of his 470 total points (less than 35% of his scoring is on dunks). He also gets fouled on 24% of his FG attempts - that puts him behind Dwight Howard (29%), but just ahead of Shaq (23%). But hey, I'm all for him dunking more. It's a very high percentage shot. And, as he regains his explosiveness, he'll be dunking even more. In addition to his limited minutes, he also plays on a team with many other scoring options. No way would Durant have averaged 17.1 FGA/G as a rookie if he was sharing the ball with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw. As Oden's minutes go up and his conditioning/explosiveness improve, his scoring opportunities will increase. My point wasn't that he'll ever outscore Durant, just that he's a much more efficient scorer - even as a rookie coming off microfracture surgery. BNM
Another question that just popped in my head.... would Rudy Fernandez be Rookie of the Year if he was starting on a crappy team? How about Jerryd Bayless? Greg Oden? I think Batum is the only guy who is in the best possible situation for his growth. There's very little pressure on him to produce right now, and pretty much anything he does produce is just gravy.
Last game, 11 mins and only 4 fouls. So you are saying he's to out of shape to play more than 11 mins?
I've read 3 or 4 articles (I know there are probably 20+) on potential ROY this year . . . Oden's name wasn't even mentioned in the ones I read. Oden looks like he is going to be OK and a center that you can pencil in for the next 5 years (at least) if he can stay healthy . . . but he is not in the same discussion right now with the other rookies if we are talking ROY.
That had little to do with Oden's conditioning and it certainly didn't have anything to do with some defect in Nate's coaching. Oden picked up three fouls in the first half and had to come out. By the time his rotation started in the second half, the game was a blowout. It would have been stupid to play Oden more in garbage minutes at the risk of injury. The fact that Oden scored 12 points, grabbed 8 boards, and had 2 blocks in 11 minutes of playing time shows that Rosen's "dud" label is ridiculous. The fact that the numskull doesn't realise that the Blazers have another very good center on the team in Przybilla proves that he's completely out of touch with regard to the Blazers' future.
Which is ironic because, IMO, Oden has the most impact on the game when he's actually playing of any of the other rookies.
Yet he did play later. I would think any time he can get mins in to get in better condition and let him work on his shot/D would be worth while. Hell, Roy was playing until the last 3 mins. I was suprise he wasn't pulled earlier.
No, because he hasn't played enough minutes to win ROY. He's been a better player than pretty much all the other rookies when on the court, though. So, he won't and shouldn't win ROY, but I'd rather have Oden going forward than any other of the rookies.
I'd bet you a beer his knee is hurting, and that he has to get it scoped as soon as the season is over.
Yup. Oden's play on the court has been consistent with his hype, for a rookie. If he didn't have trouble with fouls, his per-game stats would be as good or better than Howard's rookie numbers. I'll take a projected dominant big man over a projected great point guard.
Solid post BNM -- nice work. Can we get this as an automatic reply to any post containing the words "Oden" and "dud" or "bust"?
I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one. I would rather go to war with a duo of Rose and Joel, than Oden and a mediocre PG. (not least of which because Rose is more likely to REACH his potential than Oden)
Hmmm,,,I'll take that bet. It'll be hard to prove though that he's hurting now and he might just have it clean up after the season anyway. But if he has the surgery you win.
It remains to be seen who ends up as Portland's point guard. I think Bayless will be far more than "mediocre," personally. And Przybilla is a great backup, but he's also "mediocre" as a starter. Having an average center as a backup is a great luxury, though. I think Oden has a higher ceiling. I think he's likely to at least be as good as Rose. He's currently better when on the floor (significantly higher PER and much more impactful defense) and he's still recovering from microfracture surgery, while Rose isn't. I don't see any reason to believe Oden will fall behind in development, unless you believe he'll never figure out how not to foul. As for injuries, I know you take the viewpoint that Oden's career is more likely than not going to be derailed by them. I don't. If he continues having injury problems next year, I'd be quite concerned. Right now, since none are chronic, I think it's way too early to assume he'll always pick up random injuries. It could be that he will, but I don't think that should be the default opinion already.
For perspective here's a couple of previous Rosen gems: http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2007/02/rosen_thistle.html http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=313&f=2178&t=11495 Pretty much sums up everything you need to know about Rosen's ability to scout and evaluate talent. Frankly I take his "dud" comment as an almost guarantee of success.
