Ric Bucher Likes OKC Over Blazers In A Few Years

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by ABM, Apr 3, 2009.

Moderators: 7

Moderators

  1. BrianFromWA
  2. Chris Craig
  3. Darkwebs
  4. Ed O
  5. PtldPlatypus
  6. SlyPokerDog
  7. Strenuus
Page 13 of 19
  1. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2003
    Messages:
    3,250
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    38
    you bring up exceptions to a single season being up a good indicator of how good a player is, but that's not what your claim was. your claim was that it is likely that any single season is a fluke.
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #241
  2. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    28,071
    Likes Received:
    10,384
    Trophy Points:
    113
    And this is more a philosophical discussion, because the statistics (the raw ones, not the hollingerized aggregate stats) are a reflection of actuality. If there's enough not being captured in the stats, if what is actual cannot be quantified, then are we back to comparing gut feelings and opinions?

    How can actuality (how good a player actually is) be represented fully without resorting to "he just is better" type of statements?
     
    BlazerCaravan, Apr 4, 2009
    #242
  3. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    32,870
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Tualatin, OR
    So, instead, we're left with opinions. Most disagree with your opinion about Brandon Roy.
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #243
  4. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2003
    Messages:
    3,250
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    38
    the mods are against us. i think it's time we found a new message board.
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #244
  5. BengalDuck

    BengalDuck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,026
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Why aren't McGrady, Shaq, Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson, and Amar'e Stoudimire top 10 players? over the last (insert ridiculously extended time lag here) they've been SUPERSTARS!
     
    BengalDuck, Apr 4, 2009
    #245
  6. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    32,870
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Tualatin, OR
    Your sarcasm is duly noted. :clap:
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #246
  7. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    10,684
    Likes Received:
    2,779
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Roy has two sub-20 PER seasons. Durant only has one... as a teenager.

    Both seasons might be fluky--in either direction. I'm simply not putting as much stock into this year as almost everyone else on the board.

    "Proven he can win at this level" means nothing to me. Sorry. I think that all of the "Roy has led his team to more wins" talk is just hot air... the team has improved across the board in the time Roy's been here... his improvement is CERTAINLY a factor in the team's improvement, but I don't think he deserves all--or even most--of the credit.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #247
  8. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    10,684
    Likes Received:
    2,779
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    A "fluke" and "a less than optimal indicator of how good a player is" mean the same thing to me.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #248
  9. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    32,870
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Tualatin, OR
    So then, what does Durant deserve credit for at this stage of his career?
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #249
  10. alex42083

    alex42083 Thanks Brandon

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    7,789
    Likes Received:
    47
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Occupation:
    Writing about sports
    Location:
    Canby, Wilsonville, Portland
    There are very few players in this league I'd trade Brandon Roy for, much less 10. This is crazy talk.
     
    alex42083, Apr 4, 2009
    #250
  11. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    10,684
    Likes Received:
    2,779
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    None of them are having good seasons this year. Why would we include players in the top 10 that aren't playing well when there are so many that are?

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #251
  12. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    28,071
    Likes Received:
    10,384
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ironic meta-sarcasm? I'm impressed.

    The lag or running average or whatever you want to call it does have to have a limit... it's like analyzing a waveform using a fast fourier transform... if the window's too large, the analysis is useless... same if it's too small. There's a Goldilox conundrum at play...

    Damn, I'm tired... my geek filter isn't working anymore.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Apr 4, 2009
    #252
  13. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    32,870
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Tualatin, OR
    Yes, that is your subjective nature. It's odd how strongly you argue subjective opinions, isn't it?
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #253
  14. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    26,226
    Likes Received:
    14,407
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    User Interface Designer
    Location:
    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Unlike me, what? If I didn't answer a question of yours, it's because I missed it.

    Flukish seasons are far from uncommon, so I don't agree with your claim that a "current season" (which can range from 1-82 games, depending on when the discussion takes place) is a large enough sample size to remove variability as a factor.

    Agreed, but this seems like a strawman, as I haven't seen anyone argue for using a ten-year window. Statistical analysts commonly employ a three year window to get a sample size more resistant to statistical variation but short enough not to be using data that is likely no longer reflective of the player's ability.

    Weighting the more recent data is usually a good idea. Then, of course, what weight you use is also a good debate issue.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2009
    Minstrel, Apr 4, 2009
    #254
  15. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    32,870
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Tualatin, OR
    Don't worry, it's only our head mod swatting down the opinions of those who think Roy is a Top 10 player.
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #255
  16. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2003
    Messages:
    3,250
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    38
    that really makes no sense. what is the optimal indicator of how good a player is?
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #256
  17. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    10,684
    Likes Received:
    2,779
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    The stats are getting more refined, but until we get more data (at least until the data that's collected is more widely available) the stats can only get so good.

    I don't think that it will ever be a case where opinion and gut feelings are entirely irrelevant, though.

    I dunno. It's a good question. :)

    What is "better"? Is it if they were on a team of entirely average teammates, over the course of a season they'd lead their team to the best record against other teams of entirely average opponents?

    Is it that they had the most effective season as we can measure it?

    Is it that they were the best player on the best team?

    I really don't know.

    I guess I look to how big of an impact a player is likely to have in the near future. Not necessarily just next game, and not necessarily over the next three seasons from now.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #257
  18. BengalDuck

    BengalDuck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,026
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    48

    From a pure production standpoint, Shaq is having a better season than Garnett. His team is far better than Bosh's. He was an all-star/.
     
    BengalDuck, Apr 4, 2009
    #258
  19. mgb

    mgb Over-Nite Sensation

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Messages:
    5,132
    Likes Received:
    92
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Gresham, OR
    Isn't that a personal attack? Not that I disagree with you,,,
     
    mgb, Apr 4, 2009
    #259
  20. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    10,684
    Likes Received:
    2,779
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    It makes sense to me.

    Did you read and understand my analogy about determining expected value from a die with an unknown number of sides?

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #260
Page 13 of 19

Share This Page