I know we have been saying it for months, but right now it is even crazier. Becasue it is all about match ups, it's so hard for fans to know who to root for each night. Because it may backfire. Look at the Jazz. They are better off staying in 7th if Denver stays in 2nd. That is a good match up for them IMO. Better than Portland, Houston, or SA (where they have not won in a decade-19 games) Look at the Lakers. who do they want to face in the first round? Dallas or Utah. That may determine how hard they play their last game against the Jazz. SA: Is Duncan hurt. Do they rest him the rest of the way? Do they go hard Friday against the Jazz? Or do they roll the dice and say "lets get healthier". If they do then it could come down to Houston/Portland for third. We would love to play NO (IMO) But what if Dallas sweeps NO this week and ends up in 6th! That would not be as good for us. Bottom line: 6 days left...everything is up in the air. This is much more fun than studying www.NBAdraft.net every night before I go to bed.
You know now that I look at the schedules more closely....I would bet that NO ends up in the 8th spot. They could lose all four of their last games. My prediction is we end up in 4th and play SA.
You know that we can't get the 3rd seed, because that will go to a division winner. There are many crazy scenarios that could take place though. Like what if there was a 4 way tie? Based on the tie breaking rules, the 5th and 6th seed teams could end up having home court advantage over the 3rd and 4th seed teams. Because one set of rules is used to determine the seeding and another home court advantage. It's looking like we will most likely face Houston or San Antonio in the 1st round. It's probably perferable that the Rockets win the division, so that we're facing San Antonio in the 1st with home court.
No I must admit I forgot about the division winner getting third. So yes SA or Houston. That means I have to root for the Jazz on Friday vs. the Spurs. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
ugh... HOW MANY TIMES MUST WE GO OVER THE PLAYOFF SEEDING RULES??? The division winners are NOT guaranteed a top 3 seed. They are guaranteed a top 4 seed, so YES, we can get the 3rd seed without winning the division.
This is awesome, edge of your seat type of stuff. I'm so thankful that we are in the middle of it! Usually by now we have our annual, "This isn't a very deep draft" thread, where I have to point out that we say that every year and it's just because some people don't know much about the prospects. Last years draft was only "3-deep" and this point last year, but now it's looking super strong. Oh shoot, I'm off subject! Big 4 games coming up!
One more thing most ppl don't realize, it's that they changed the tiebreakers so the first tiebreaker is winning one's division, instead of head to head record. If HOU, SA and POR finished tied (as today), we would NOT get home court, because even though we are 3-1 against the Spurs, it wouldn't matter cause the Spurs have the Southwest (they are 2-2 against HOU but have a 9-6 division record as opposed to Houston's 8-6), and the Rockets have the tiebreaker over us. Man, that Rockets game can still end up costing us HCA.
Fairly simple now: Root for Houston to win the SW Division, and the Blazers get HCA provided we at least tie San Antonio's record.
Interestingly, Hollinger's playoff odds tool now predicts that as the most likely scenario, three-way tie with Houston as the Southwest champ, and us hosting SA with HCA. If we manage to win out though, and Houston loses at least 1 of 4 (most likely), we are in sole possession of 3rd, hosting New Orleans. Now, I know SA is banged up, but so are the hornets, and I still would rather see them in the first round.
I really like how we're setting up. I think there's a shot for us to beat the L*kers, UTH, DEN and SAS, and probably add NOH to that mix. I want no part of HOU or DEN. Best-case for me is getting the 2 seed, but that's not happening. I don't care if we get 3 or 4 as long as we don't play HOU. If it's DEN/UTH in the 2/7 series like it looks like it will be, the following would shake out: We beat NOH in Round 1. We get either DEN w/o HCA or UTH w/HCA in Round Two. Neither of those scare me a ton. We get LAL w/o HCA or HOU/SAS w/HCA in the WCF, with two rounds of experience. I'd like to watch that. It's tougher as the 4 or 5 seed. We'd probably have SAS in the first round with HCA, but then we play LAL, and if we get past them we're road warriors against HOU or DEN. Not as fun, if you ask me.
This should help some people: The top four seeds will be the three division winners plus the team with the next best record. Those four will be ordered by record (and tiebreakers if needed), so it's possible that two teams in the same division could hold the top two spots, with the other two division winners at Nos. 3 and 4. Seeds 5 through 8 are the next four teams according to record (and tiebreakers if needed). First Round match-ups are as follows: 1 vs. 8 4 vs. 5 2 vs. 7 3 vs. 6 Conference Semifinals match-ups are as follows: 1-8 Winner vs. 4-5 Winner 2-7 Winner vs. 3-6 Winner Home court advantage for any series is determined by record, not seed. So, it's possible that the 5 seed could have home court advantage over the 4, or that the 6 seed could have homecourt advantage over the 3. Tiebreakers (1) Head-to-head (2) Division record (if the teams are in the same division) (3) Conference record (4) Record vs. Playoff teams, own conference (5) Record vs. Playoff teams, other conference (6) Net points, all games
I see it the same way, and it's a great first round match-up for the Blazers whether or not they get HCA.
Tyson Chandler will be available for the playoffs. I have visions of Chris Paul driving at will to the rim, David West hitting everything he puts up, and Chandler getting offensive rebounds when the Blazers bigs have to meet Paul at the rim. No. Thank. You.
Though I did have fun with the drafts - my lottery picks those dark years were Al Jefferson, Chris Paul and LaMarcus Alridge - you are right - enough with the fucking draft. It time for playoffs!
Not sure if this link has been posted yet. Pretty much what we all have been thinking as of last night: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090409
