Yeah, by "otherwise unchanged" I meant that no significant addition would be made, Portland would continue on with players they already have. Removing Sergio would definitely make a difference.
Ideally, Webster would be moved, too. Outlaw backs up the small forward position, Freeland is brought over as a backup power forward and KP drafts the BPA (best player available) and that draft pick is third-string whatever.
At his age, probably close to the full MLE (maybe a little bit more) and I guess it would be something like a 3 year deal with a team option on the third. Rumor has it Kidd is probably going to be offered the MLE by the Knicks ... similar players of a similar age. If not Miller, then I would love to see KP try to work out a sign and trade for Ramon Sessions; the Bucks are going to be hard put to keep he and Villaneuva without going over the luxury tax line and depending on the direction they want to go he might be attainable with enough inducements.
This is my alternate "unlikely but would be great" scenario. I've said it before, but if I were to pick the next "Devin Harris" (good young player who breaks out into a star point guard) it would be Sessions. Portland can't sign him directly (Milwaukee could, and almost surely would, match)...but Milwaukee may be up for saving on that salary if Portland offered them some value in return.
I come at this from being a huge Rubio fan. Not as much as Webster and Oden, but pretty big. I think a lot of you are seriously underestimating what "financial considerations" can do for us. It wouldn't be a straight talent swap for Rubio. I keep going back to thinking that something can be done with WAS if we take on Jamison's contract (we missed the window on getting Arenas without giving up something that we won't --like LMA or Oden's contract). At the draft we could potentially offer to take Jamison+Rubio for Sergio, Outlaw, Blake and Diogu's exception. This gives WAS the opportunity to cut Outlaw and Blake if they want, saving themselves 12M in deals with 3 full years left and 7M or so in luxury tax. Is their pick worth 22M? Or, if they wanted to keep Outlaw or Blake, they'd have some talent there, too. We get a big long-term deal in Jamison, but he's the epitome of the veteran scorer/rebounder 3/4, right? If you went into the summer and told KP he'd blow his cap space on Jamison and Rubio, would he go for it? If we're getting Rubio, I'd really like to keep Rudy. I don't see Flynn or Lawson helping us much. Honestly, though I don't really like the guy's game much, I could see KP and Nate agreeing that Darren Collison would be a good fit for us. "Veteran" PGs in the NBA don't excite me much, though I'd offer Kidd the MLE if he'd take it if we made the trade for Rubio. Kidd/Rubio/Bayless/Kopo Roy/Rudy Batum/Webs (or Outlaw, if WAS likes Webster more) LMA/Jamison/Freeland/Shav Oden/Joel **EDIT: I was typing when Nik posted about Kidd's MLE. Great minds think alike.
I think trading Rudy would be a big mistake. He is a good contributor in his rookie season. Shouldn't Portland see how he comes along in the next couple of years before trading him? The one huge knock against Rubio is his utter lack of an outside shot. Wouldn't that be a huge problem on a team where the point guards main job is to bring the ball up the floor, hand the ball to Mr Roy, then spot of for a three? I remember Roy saying he didn't really want to play with another guard that dominates the ball ala CP-3 and Nash. I am under the impression that in order to be really effective Rubio would need to do the same. I have no idea if Rubio will be as awesome as everyone seems to think he will be. If Portland drafts him, I hope he turns out that way.
I'm not sure if I like it, but you've certainly given us something to think about. From a talent perspective I believe the Blazers clearly come out ahead on this deal, but I worry a little about what role/position Jamison would play -- does he still have enough athleticism to play the 3 and if not would he be satisfied playing backup power forward to LaMarcus? Honestly, If I were going to make a play for Jamison (and Rubio of course) you have to seriously consider moving Joel to clear up enough minutes for a guy of Antawn's caliber (ideally you'd play a 3 man rotation of Greg, LaMarcus, and Jamison with LaMarcus sliding back and forth between power forward and center, or move Jamison to the 3 when you want to go ginormous in the front-court.) Maybe a deal like this? Bayless and/or Sergio, Travis, Joel, Channing and draft picks for Rubio and Jamison? Salaries wouldn't need to be matched since we're under the cap and Washington would get I'm not proposing this as a serious idea, but it's something to chew on.
I seriously doubt the offense is that way by design, the fact is our starting point guard has a helluva time penetrating into the paint and just so happens to be a great spot up shooter on threes, so Nate has devised a system to take advantage of his talent and to minimize his shortcomings. As for Roy stating he doesn't want to play with a ball dominant point guard I can't say I've ever seen hard evidence of that -- I hear it repeated a lot, but I haven't ever seen a source (not to say it didn't happen). But you are right that ideally we would have a point guard who can shoot (even if it that is just a decent mid-range game) but if they can also drive and create in the lane so much the better.
For what it's worth, a Milwaukee sports writer on the unlikelihood that the Bucks will keep both, or even one, of their two restricted free agents: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/42640872.html
Sucks for the Bucks, but it gives me some hope that KP will be able to really get aggressive and add great up and coming young player at a position of need. But if they are really committed to staying below the luxury line, it's likely they'd want to dump a bad contract on us in any kind of sign and trade in addition to getting at least a serviceable replacement for what they'd lose with Sessions. I tend to think Bayless is going to end up being a good NBA guard (combo, point or otherwise) but I'd trade him for Sessions without batting an eye. One wonders if a deal of Bayless + cash or Sergio + cash and picks and a sign and trade for Sessions along with taking back a deadweight contract like Charlie Bell or Dan Gadzuric (blech on both!) would get a deal done -- that might even be overly generous from Portland's perspective, depending on the competition for Sessions services and Milwaukee's desperation.
Yeah...and if KP offered to take Sessions and a bad contract, that could give them room to at least retain Villaneuva. I might do that, but I think if Portland is taking back a bad contract, they shouldn't have to give up as good a prospect as Bayless. I think Bayless has a very nice future ahead of him. This may not be a popular sentiment, but I'd rather give up Rudy. Ideally, though, Portland would give up Webster and/or Outlaw plus Sergio, since Portland is enabling them to retain one of their valuable RFAs by taking back a bad contract. I'd also throw in Portland's first-round pick this year.
Can you guys think of an example when the #2 pick was traded. The most recent I can think of is when Chicago traded away Brand who, iirc, was ROY the previous season. I just don't think any combination of Outlaw/Sergio/Rudy or anyone other than Oden, Roy, or LMA will get Rubio, no matter how much cash you throw at the deal.
Realistically speaking, the best PG we can trade up to get is probably Lawson. And I'd be very happy with that. Three years college in an outstanding program. Got better each year. Really "led" that team to the NCAA title. He has great skills. I think we could trade our #1 this year, Channing and one one other draft pick for him. I'd do it.
Aldridge was taken #2 by the Bulls in 2006. I am pretty sure we have seen him around here in some other uniform.
Sure, I was just giving more of a "This is as far as I'd be willing to go" scenario. I think Bayless has true 'stud' potential, I'm just not so sure he's going to be capable of reaching that status playing for the Blazers. Ideally I'd love to see an offer of: Sergio, Webster a draft pick and some cash and take back Gadzuric's awful contract in addition to giving Sessions the money he's worth (probably close to 8-11 million per year (average) using the 'Gilbert Arenas' provision of the CBA: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q37) There sure is a lot to like about a possible rotation of: Sessions/Blake/*Bayless Roy/Rudy/*Bayless Batum/Travis LaMarcus/Travis Greg/Joel/Gadzuric The balance of the roster could be filled out with draft picks or perhaps Freeland brought over as some insurance in the front court. Maybe next year Bayless shows enough improvement to warrant letting Blake go at the end of his contract?
Rubio may not go #2. He has a contract with his European team that needs to be bought out. NBA teams can only pay a small portion of it, by rule. That means Rubio would have to invest a sizable amount of his rookie salary in paying it off, which he may not choose to do. These contract concerns may cause him to drop in the draft. gambitnut had an interesting idea, which is to trade up to the top pick in the second round, see if Rubio drops through the first round over concerns that he won't come over and draft him with the first pick of the second round. Second round picks have no required slot salaries. Portland can pay him what they want (up to their cap space limit)...which means they could pay him enough for him to buy out his European contract and still make top-pick salary. It's an interesting idea. I wonder if it would be legal for KP to contact Rubio and encourage him to put out word that he won't spend his own first-round money on buying out his contract, telling him of this plan. It would be to Rubio's best interest (even better than going #1) and obviously it would be great for Portland. Since Rubio isn't in the NBA, I don't know why it would be against rules.
Oh yeah, I knew I was forgetting an obvious one. But still, didn't Portland trade #4 to move up. That's much more realistic than trading servicable role players for what looks like a can't miss PG.
Yup, I'd be a big fan of that roster. As you say, Freeland can be brought over and, if he pans out, he could be the dedicated back-up power forward and Outlaw can be the dedicated back-up small forward. As for Blake, I'd also offer him in the deal for Sessions, since Milwaukee doesn't seem to be a big fan of Ridnour. Blake is having one of his best seasons and has been about an average starter. He may not be exciting, but he'd be a solid piece of value for a team that will need a point guard. Sessions/Bayless Roy/Rudy/Bayless Batum/Travis LaMarcus/Freeland/Gadzuric Greg/Joel/Gadzuric I'd be pretty comfortable with that rotation. Gadzuric is no worse than Frye as an emergency big man. Freeland gets first crack at being an effective reserve...if he fails, Outlaw goes back to swing duty between the 3/4 and KP continues to look for a good backup 4.
