I'm really anxious to see what a fully recovered Oden with a summer of doing nothing but working on basketball technique (vs. trying to rehab) is going to look like next season. I don't know that he's ever going to be a consistent 20/10 threat (in fact I'm almost certain of it), but I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up consistently averaging something like 13 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks a game in two or three years. Not exactly 'The next Bill Russell' numbers, but probably exactly what this team will need and want from him.
I saw a a more humorous side of Greg when Dominguez sort of chided him to "be selfish" in rating what he could accomplish in an injury-free season. Mr. Double-Double.
I could see some more scoring than that.. the dude is getting 9 points while only taking 6 FG's a game.. give him 12 shots and see what happens.
Until he has a post move that is more than just backing people down and dunking over them I don't see Greg getting 12 shots a game through set plays. I think he's easily capable of pulling down 5 or 6 offensive boards per game (in 30+ minutes) and converting those boards into at least 4 FG attempts, but he's got a ton of work to do with his hook shot before I'd be comfortable running anything through him at that high of a rate ... at least for the near term future.
I just think that he needs more confidence in his shots. He does have a pretty nice short-range jumpshot that we saw, and the up and under move was pretty bad-ass. Now to perfect his hook shot...
Agreed. You can't just scale up his shot attempts because he just doesn't have the offensive game to back it up yet. I do have faith that he will be able to polish up a move or two in the offseason to bolster his PPG next season, though -- you want him to at least be a consistent threat to get the ball on a set play, even if he isn't the hub of the offense. And how about his sweet pass-fake to an up-and-under during (I believe) the Lakers game? I don't believe I'd ever seen him pull of anything like it before -- the best is yet to come!
My guess is that GO maxes out between 18-24 ppg, 11-14 rbg and 2.5-4 bpg if he can get to playing 34-38 mpg. You don't have to run plays for him. He just cleans the glass and scores on putbacks. And anytime he isn't scoring, he's getting fouled. He's a better FT shooter than he shown this year. I think an issue as important is that the team is still getting used to playing with him. Even a guy like Roy, who seems to have really good court vision, is missing Oden open in the post. Once they get some chemistry with him, he'll be even more effective. Oden hasn't been as good as I thought he would be this year, but I've seen enough glimpses of what he will be to make me dream of next year.
You're already essentially certain that Oden can never be a serious offensive threat? He's had less than two seasons of experience above high school, one of those in college where he didn't need much more than "back down and spin or shoot a hook." Getting offensive polish and more moves is hardly something that is inconceivable with more work and experience. In addition, he still hasn't cleared the standard full recovery time after microfracture surgery. I'm amazed that people who know he's still recovering from a surgery and that he's so inexperienced are still deciding that his upside is very low. "Maybe he can be a good role-player. That could still be useful!" You can't just "scale up" his current numbers, but his per-minute efficiency is still very impressive for a rookie (and not even very college experienced) center who's not at full speed. He'll need to keep improving, but that should be expected.
I was probably a little too strong in saying I'm 'certain of it', but when I watch him I just don't see 'scorer.' However, the rest of your points are well taken, but I'm not sure how a prediction of 13/12/2 would make him a role-player? That's a damn fine center, and I probably aimed a little low with the points (long term), I could see him getting as many as 15 or 16 a game on average in maybe 3 years or so. My predictions for him have less to do with Greg's ceiling and more to do with the way this roster is constructed; there are only going to be so many touches with guys like Brandon and LaMarcus getting their 15-18 shots a night.
Hmm, I see "raw scorer." Not yet skilled, but already making it tough on opponents with his size. It's "applied size." There are lots of big gumps who enter the league and don't scare anyone despite being big. Oden forces defenses to account for him, he already knows how to use his size to get to the rim and draw fouls. When he adds his full explosiveness to the package and learns post moves, I think he'll be a 20 PPG scorer. Well, "role-player" might have been a bit of an exaggeration, but that's basically Emeka Okafor. Useful player, but hardly an impact player. Scouts have been universal that Oden is a franchise center. Could they be wrong? Sure...they were on Milicic. But usually such scouting consensus isn't way off. And his rookie season seems consistent with those appraisals, IMO, considering the fact that he's not full-speed. He's been sitting around 18 PER for the season, which is just below borderline All-Star. Now, of course, he hasn't played nearly the minutes to translate that into the typical value that an 18 PER player has, and I'm not suggesting that he's a near All-Star. But it does show how effective he's been when he's on the court. And that doesn't even consider his defensive impact. Yeah, that's a fair point. But I think if Oden does become a very capable scorer, the offense will go through him for strategic reasons. Inside-out offense puts the defense into scramble mode by forcing double-teams in the post (or allowing close-in baskets). If Oden becomes a 20 PPG type of scorer, his scoring will be the most consistent of the three, due to where on the floor it comes from. Supplementing that with Aldridge's shooting and driving from the high post and Roy's slashing/mid-range game will make for a team offense that will be near unstoppable.
You're almost making a believer out of me I hope you're right. I do think Greg has more potential than Okafor, but Emeka is still a pretty damn good center in his own right who rebounds well and plays solid defense in the paint; Even if that were Greg's ceiling (which I don't think it is) I wouldn't feel cheated or somehow let down by Greg. I'd hope for more, but for this team that could be enough production maybe? I agree that his PER bodes well for what he'll be able to do given 30+ minutes a game, but I do wonder how long it's going to take for him to get the fouling under control so he'll actually be able to average that much floor time. If I had to guess I wouldn't be surprised if he averages around 28 minutes a game next season ... even with his full explosiveness back. If he could get to 32-34 I think that would be fantastic. My concerns about his ability to stay on the court (foul trouble and health) are the main reasons I don't have his per game numbers pegged higher. Agreed. I think Nate would love to see the inside out game get rolling with Greg as a focal point from the low blocks, supplemented by a high-low game with LaMarcus, it's just going to take awhile for that to come together in my opinion, but it's all going to rest on just how much floor time Greg can get, which seems to have really hurt his ability to build any sense of continuity offensively because he just hasn't been in much of a rhythm Also a point guard who can make the post entry pass wouldn't hurt either.
I think all the points have been covered by Nik and Minstrel. I'm going to reserve judgment. I want to see how Greg does over the summer, and whether that athleticism that we all salivated over really comes back.
Greg Oden is already a better scorer than Bill Russell ever was. Bill Russell has career averages of 15.1 points on 44% shooting from the field, 56% from the stripe in 42.3 mpg.
True, there is something to be said for their scoring averages on a per minute basis, but Oden has yet to stay on the court long enough to show that his 21 minutes a game stats will keep pace with additional minutes. It needs to be said however that Russell was too busy blocking shots and pulling down 22.5 rebounds a game and distributing 4.3 assists per game to worry too much about scoring.
he showed more post moves than that in the laker game alone. he had his power just backing people down move, his little hook shot, and he had his spin and dunk. put those together with the points he gets off of offensive rebounds, free throws, and could get off of pick and rolls and that right there is an easy 15 points a game is he plays enough minutes. the thing holding back oden's offense the most isn't his offensive ability, it's his foul trouble(along with the lack of real offensive touches he gets most games).
