Preliminary Fights: (Odds from BodogLife) Sam Stout (-140) vs. Matt Wiman (+110) Smart matchmaking by Joe Silva. Stout is an exciting fighter but he has hit a ceiling in the UFC. The talent in the division is getting too deep for him to hang without getting wins. He has lost two straight and hasn't finished an opponent in the UFC. If he loses this fight, he's out. Probably for good, as it's his third run with the UFC. Wiman is a little better off. He got everyone on his side by knocking out Thiago Tavares in dramatic fashion at UFC 85, but couldn't follow up and lost a decision to Jim Miller at the end of 2008. Stout's kickboxing is crisp but he lacks knockout power and his ground game is lacking. Wiman's boxing has improved and his groundwork is good. The odds makers are tilting this one in Stout's favour, probably because of a home country advantage. TJ Grant (null) vs. Ryo Chonan (null) I met Chonan in an elevator in Las Vegas the night before UFC 92. He was drawn out. The next night he had a tough first round against Brad Blackburn but came back and won the second frame. The third was close. The crowd was on Chonan's side but not the judges. The weight cut was a tough one for him and probably cost him the fight, which is shocking, because I thought he looked small enough to fight at lightweight. Chonan is 1-2 in three UFC fights, all by decision. His opponent in Montreal is Canadian newcomer TJ Grant. Its debatable whether Grant is a better prospect than Jesse Bongfelt, who submitted him by triangle choke last February, but Bongfelt hasn't fought since, and Grant is 4-0 since, including two wins over UFC veterans (Chad Reiner, Forrest Petz). The Dartmouth, Nova Scotia native is a submission specialist with 12 of his 13 wins coming via tap-out. He won't submit Chonan, who is stupid tough. The odds have Chonan as a decent favourite which is appropriate, considering his veteran status and Grant's expected debut jitters. Mark Bocek (-285) vs. David Bielkheden (+225) Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Mark Bocek had a rough start to his UFC career, debuting against stellar wrestler Frank Edgar at UFC 73. It wasn't until his fourth fight, at UFC 91, where Bocek got everyone's attention. The Torontonian dominated Alvin Robinson en route to choke-out victory in the third round. Its American Top Team vs. Brazilian Top Team in this bout, as his opponent is Stockholm native David Bielkheden. "The Lion" got a similar rough welcome to the UFC when he debuted against Diego Sanchez as a welterweight, succumbing to punches in the first round of their bout. Bielkheden won his last fight against Jess Liaudin but has dropped to lightweight. Odds makers put Bocek ahead by a wide margin, expecting his smothering top control to dominate the action. Safe bet. David Loiseau (-130) vs. Ed Herman (EVEN) David Loiseau is a favourite in this fight because it is up to him how it turns out. Loiseau is a former top contender in the middleweight division but he hasn't looked the same since losing to Rich Franklin in 2006. At one time Loiseau's vicious elbows and high-flying Thai Boxing made him a difficult opponent for anyone but some submissive performances against Mike Swick and Joey Villasenor have made fans question the French Canadian fighter's heart. However, Ed Herman is in tough against Loiseau, who is a Montreal native and will have 20,000+ fans behind him on Saturday. Herman is an Ultimate Fighter runner-up who has compiled a 3-4 record in the UFC. Herman's last two fights have been losses and as is the case with many fighters on this card, another loss will likely put him out of a gig with the UFC. Herman will be determined to get this fight to the ground where he can work for mount and try to finish Loiseau. If he can't accomplish that, expect Loiseau to win a decision on good striking and sprawling. Jason MacDonald (-110) vs. Nate Quarry (-120) The odds makers can't decide on this one because both of these fighters have recently been submitted by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Demian Maia. It seems that if "The Athlete" can take down "The Rock", he can submit him. But Quarry is a superior striker and wrestler who will make MacDonald's life difficult. Though MacDonald is the Canadian the crowd might be responsive to Quarry, who made the most of a perplexing fight with Kailb Starnes at UFC 83 in Montreal a year ago. The crowd roared for Quarry who chased and mocked a retreating Starnes for fifteen minutes. Dennis Kang (-325) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+250) MMA fans who have been paying attention to Denis Kang's career understand that he is a phenomenal talent who tends to self-destruct. Kang made a name for himself in PRIDE where he knocked out Murilo Rua and submitted Amar Suloev, but has since suffered embarassing knockouts at the hands of Yoshihiro Akiyama and Alan Belcher and a frustrating submission loss to Gegard Mousasi. Kang isn't being given an easy fight against "Professor X", but it is one he should win 9/10 times. Foupa-Pokam is 13-2 since 2006 but his wins have come against mediocre opponents in mediocre promotions. Its time for some French on French crime in Montreal! Eliot Marshall (null) vs. Vinicius Magalhaes (null) A late addition to the UFC 97 card is an Ultimate Fighter feud settler featuring Eliot Marshall and Vinny Magalhaes. Magalhaes took offense to the agreement Marshall made with fellow TUF competitor Krzysztof Soszynski to meet in the Light Heavyweight finals for the show, and defeated Soszynski by armbar at the Finale in response. Now he gets his chance to take out Marshall, who looked great against a vastly inferior opponent in Jules Bruchez at the same event. Marshall's Jiu-Jitsu is good, but not at Magalhaes' level, so expect to see him sprawl and brawl in this one. Undercard Fights (Odds from BodogLife) Steve Cantwell (+260) vs. Luiz Cane (-340) I'm looking forward to this fight as much as any other on the card. Cantwell showed great boxing skills in his second fight against Brian Stann for the WEC Light Heavyweight Championship, picking Stann apart and finishing him dramatically. Then he demonstrated some slick Jiu-Jitsu on UFC newcomer Razak Al-Hassan, snapping his arm at UFC Fights for the Troops in December. The level of competition for Cantwell jumps massively with a tilt against Cane at UFC 97. Cane is a bulldozer who eats kicks and punches in order to set up a heavy left hand. Cane crushed Sokoudjou and Jason Lambert in his last two UFC fights and will be looking for another knockout win. Cane's Jiu-Jitsu is somewhat untested in his UFC career so far so it goes without saying that Cantwell will be looking to get this fight to the ground. Cheick Kongo (-350) vs. Antoni Hardonk (+275) When these two saw their names on the UFC 92 card they knew wins would lead them to each other a few months later. Both fighters come from traditional European/Dutch-style kickboxing backgrounds and have shown problems with ground work in their short UFC careers. Both fighters have vicious leg kicks and clinch game. Kongo has shown a tendency to try and take the fight to the mat when things aren't going his way on the feet. However, Hardonk's pointed chin has been questionable, and Kongo's long jab should find it. Size and reach lead odds makers to put their money on Kongo in this one. Nobody walks away from this fight without a limp. Krzysztof Soszynski (-155) vs. Brian Stann (+125) Soszynski has a hard name to spell and thus has been the bane of bloggers since his Ultimate Fighter debut in 2008. The Polish-Canadian martial artist was submitted by Vinny Magalhaes in the TUF semi-finals but got a win over Shane Primm at the Finale. Soszynski's go-to move is the Kimura and if he can get "All-American" Brian Stann down, he'll go for it. Stann is a one-dimensional puncher who wins and loses by TKO. Stann was born on an American air base in Japan and spent time in the military. The odds makers think Krzysztof takes this fight because of an edge in experience and the home court advantage, but Stann's heavy hands could say otherwise. Co-Main Events: (Odds from BodogLife) Chuck Liddell (-200) vs. Mauricio Rua (+160) A few years ago this fight would've pitted two of the top light heavyweights in the world in a superfight. Unfortunately, and much like Liddell's long-anticipated tilt with Wanderlei Silva, this bout comes too late. Liddell has lost three of his last four fights including two by brutal knockout. Rua was schooled by Forrest Griffin in his UFC debut and then stumbled to a TKO win over the Mark Coleman's animated corpse at UFC 93 in Ireland. This fight is being billed as make or break for both fighters, with retirement rumours dogging Liddell as a result of comments made by UFC President Dana White. With so much on the line for both fighters a tentative fight should ensue. If Rua's conditioning is on point he will stand a better chance against Liddell, but the odds makers think that is a long shot. Liddell's sprawling and counter punching style and is exactly the right one to defeat the modern version of Rua, but if Liddell gets loose with his punches he could be waking up with a doctor's flashlight in his eyes again. Anderson Silva (-675) vs. Thales Leites (+475) Silva has been destroying every fighter he touches for a few years with no signs of stopping. His striking is miles ahead of anyone in mixed martial arts. He has established himself as the top fighter in the UFC and is close to being regarded as the best fighter in UFC history, racking up consecutive wins and title defenses in record-breaking fashion. It is no surprise that he is a huge favourite against supposed #1-contender and fellow Brazilian Thales Leites, who got his title shot more by luck and circumstance than by accomplishment. Leites won a controversial split decision against Nate Marquardt in June after Marquardt was docked two points for violations. He was then handed a gift by Joe Silva in a fight with strictly stand up fighter Drew McFedries at UFC 90. The UFC seems adverse to letting deserving middleweight contender Yushin Okami fight for the strap, and Okami keeps hurting himself, so Leites is in the main event Saturday. Leites is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion but Silva is also a diverse black belt. Leites only chance to win this fight is by a flash knockout or by catching Silva in a submission. Submission impossible.
