Motiejunas decided to wait, which is good for his basketball development since he'd probably languish on the bench in the NBA, but it just makes this draft even weaker. I love Williams as a player, but I don't think the Warriors will consider him. He definitely has the potential to succeed with a Courtney Lee-type season. Likely, he'll be drafted around the 20 spot as well.
Draft update 5/2/09: Early entry lists are out. Here are what players various mock drafts have us taking. DX: Tyreke Evans NBADraft.net: Brandon Jennings RealGM: Tyreke Evans Sportstwo (Jray): Patrick Mills (EDIT: his updated one has us taking Brandon Jennings) ESPN: Brandon Jennings
Yeah, I saw the RealGM one earlier. A lot of people think Evans will be a good fit for us since he is a combo guard despite being 6'6. I think he has T-Mac potential, except he will pass the first round.
Agree with you legacy. Hes a really nice all around player with great potential. I love how he can get to the rack at will and hes got the bulk to take contact and finish. I actually have Harden slipping to us in my mock which can be seen here. Go check out me and JRay's mocks and make comments!
I like your mock and think that it's pretty accurate, as far as our pick is concerned. We're going to have to choose between a risky PG or a solid but unspectacular SG. As much as I want a star PG, I think we have to go with the SG (Harden). I want to get back to the playoffs next season, I don't care if it's only the first round, and a rookie PG will not get us there. Especially if that PG couldn't get minutes in Europe last season. I really like the idea of trying to get Andre Miller. If not him I'd like to see us trade for someone like Blake or Hinrich. Just someone who can manage the game and take some pressure off Monta. If are able to get Harden, I'd even consider trading Jax, but only if we can draft someone who can contribute from day 1.
If Harden fell to us, I'd be very pleased, but I wouldn't be expecting anything more than a Cuttino-Mobley type player - slightly undersized SG-type lefty who know how to use his strengths to work within an offense, and works really hard on defense. Logically it'd make sense to take a solid player over a question-mark, potential-based player. Running the draft scenarios through my head, though, I can't see how Harden ends up at #7 in this weak draft. In the S2 draft, I think Teague is ranked a bit high and instead of Teague, it's more likely Memphis will take the safe road with Harden, at #6, and he reasonably could be taken at 3, 4, or 5 depending on the other teams needs and picks. Alot depends on how teams view Evans, who I personally see falling to us much more likely than Harden, giving us the Evans-Jennings choice that most mock drafters seem to think it will come down to.
I have him at 7 in my mock here. I think its feasible if Jenning's stock raises enough. My logic here is that Griffin and Rubio are virtual locks for the top 2. After that you have the Clips at 3 who just drafted a short SG who they like in Eric Gordon- they're not taking harden. I think they take the PF in Hill because they lack depth at PF and Randolph/Camby aren't long term players on the frontline. They still have Kaman and Baron there long term preventing them from taking a C or PG and recent draftees of Thornton and Gordon preventing a SG or SF. OKC clearly needs a defensive minded big man, as they're set at PG, SG/SF. Griffin and Blake are both gone- Thabeet is the obvious choice. The Minny pick is where it gets interesting, they really need a 5 but there's none available at pick 5. They've recently drafted/added C. Brewer, Foye, Mike Miller, and they like Telfair. I believe they like Foye better at SG than PG but I'm not sure on that. Harden's stock seems to be falling in the last several months as people pick away at his lack of athleticism and whatnot. Meanwhile it seems like Brandon Jennigns is making a gradual rise back up to the top 7 of the draft. If Minny likes Jennings more than Harden (not too much out of the realm of possibilities, especially since they already have a very similar player in Foye) or just wants a pure PG more than a SG then I think Jennings could definitely be the pick. Then you have Memphis who just took Mayo who is like a rich man's Harden and they also have Conley at the 1 and Gay at the 3 long term. That's how I could see Harden falling. His stock seems to be slowly falling for whatever reason. I think its feasible that he does fall.
Hm, I see your logic and agree with your takes on how the team values its current players, but disagree with their current players shape how those teams will draft this year. My thinking is that Harden (and every other draft pick except Griffin) is not a starter, not even close. These guys are all destined to be 6th-8th men, and most may not even get more than 10 minutes a game on a lottery team right now. Harden and Hill are the exceptions in that they're the most likely to be getting more than 20 minutes playing time, while the rest will depend on how desperate their teams are. So, in my view, Harden nor the other guys are gonna supplant the other players, and since every teams needs a solid bench, they're gonna draft him based on the fact that he's a sure thing off their bench. A team can drastically change in 2-3 years time, so by the time these rookies are fully evaluated and their rights about to be picked up, their teams can then decide if they're worth it or not.
That'd totally be my #1 choice, but with everyone being as stingy as they are in this economy, I actually imagine that this will be difficult to do. (You know its bad when coaches aren't being fired because the owner doesn't want to pay more to hire a new one).
Plus, it's just a really weak, diluted draft outside of Griffin and Rubio, so I don't think the #7 pick (or anything below 2) would even have much trade value. Who wants to give something up to draft a player at #7 when they could probably get the same thing with their #14 (or whatever) pick?
There was rumors immediately after the season that Nellie liked Terrence Williams. Hes an interesting prospect. Averaged 12.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 5 apg, 2.3 TOpg, 2.3 spg, .8 bpg. His percentages are what always turn me off of him though; 43% FGs (career high, he shot 41%, 37%, and 39% the previous 3 seasons), 58% FTs, 39% on 3's. Whats interesting is that he shot 4.59 shots per game and 4 3 pt FGs per game. 148 of his 169 shots his senior year were 3's. Now at 39% on 3's that looks pretty good and it explains his low FG%. But why the hell is he not scoring at the rim? Dude is a great athlete (youtube him), has PG type skills, he's 6'6 220 lbs, he averagedalmost 9 rpg his senior year so he must be around the rim more. The only explanation is that he dribbled through the paint when he got there a la Steve Nash/CP3 and dished the ball. Still concerning though becuase hes very explosive and ought to be able to finish with ease at the rim. Unfortunately I didn't see much Louisville this season so I can't explain it.
Probably wasn't getting to the rim much because they play in the Big East and the zone defenses in college limit your ability to get to the rim. His low FT% fits right in with the Warriors. Personally I think he's going to be a stud at the next level after 2 or 3 seasons in the league. From what I can gather it seems a lot of teams are looking to trade their picks this year. Maybe the Warriors can move up in the draft or get a deal done themselves. New GMs usually like to make a strong impression on draft day and put their "blueprint" on a team. I'm not sure what background Riley has in terms of basketball philosphy and what not. I'm sure Nellie will play a big role in what this team does during the draft and offseason. If he can convince Jamal Crawford to opt out that would be a key move for this franchise. With the Warriors luck they'll probably win the #3 pick in a two-player draft.
We'd be regressing as far as the FTs go. We were second in the league in FTAs per game last season and 8th in FG%. Historically we've been terrible though. This guy is intriguing, I just wish I watched more Louisville so I'd have a better idea of what he can do. I love the all around numbers but the FG%/shot selection seems rather Crawford-esque. I read that he plays defense too so thats good. And like I said, hes a great athlete which is really nice to add to those skills. He seems like a perfect fit next to Monta with that 2.15 Ast/TO ratio. Word.
