By next playoffs I see a change to three of our starting 5. That's a pretty huge difference if I am right. Of course Roy and LMA are fixed to their positions, but my guess is that Martell (or a SF upgrade) will be starting next year, and Batum will be moved back to the bench where he will hone his skills for another season or two. The Center position will almost certainly be Oden, especially if he can control his fouling at all and stay healthy, pushing Joel to the bench. And I am not sure how, but I just don't think that Blake will be the starting PG. Hopefully a trade to bring in a better PG will be the reason, but even if that does not happen, I bet that by the end of next season Bayless will be moving ahead of Blake.
Very possible we'll have 3 different starters. However, how many will be from different teams? To me, that's the real question.
I will be shocked if Webster wins the starting role next year. I think it will be Batum, Rudy or a SF we trade for...
Rudy can't play the SF though............. plus Rudy is great given B-Roy more rest, he needed it in the playoffs, and couldn't get it.
Rudy or Roy playing SF - The idea is that both of them are in the starting line - we have already seen Nate try it - and it might have to happen to find all the extra playing time Rudy deserves.
yeah, that could work. I dont know for how long though, and whose going to come off the bench? Batum and Marty?
It is going to be interesting for sure. We already see Roy and Rudy spending time together on the court often - does not really matter if it is starting or not - but as Rudy gets stronger - he deserves more than 25 MPG - and quite frankly - if you could get by playing Roy 48 minutes a game - you would - so these two will spend time at the 2 and 3 positions together.
I think it really will depend on what KP does this offseason. Unless he brings in a high profile PG or SF, Nate will still have his favorites. Greg should start if healthy Aldridge obviously If no SF upgrade is brought in it might still be Batum, but webster could get it as well Roy obviously If no upgrade is brought in it will continue to be Blake. I don't care what Nate says, he does not want to run, and Blake is perfect for him because he can't run.
Do not underestimate Nate's stubborn need to play guys he likes in spite of all evidence. Think Jack last year. If KP does not rid Portland of Blake in the off season, Nate will start him no matter who gets brought in. Just like he would have started Jack this year if he had stayed.
Or why Outlaw continues to play even though statistically the Blazers are slightly worse when he is on the floor, and the Blazers are better when Batum is on the floor.
Numbers do not support your claims (should I add as usual - or is it expected by now?) The Blazers win 55% of the time Travis is on the floor. The Blazers win 50% of the time Batum is on the floor.
Why would he start Jack this year when he did not start him last year? Last year Jack was our backup PG/SG - and given what we have seen from Sergio in the backup PG position this year - you have to be crazy not to understand why...
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR.HTM Outlaw on the court +3.4 off the court the team is a +7.8 Batum on the court +6.1 off the court the team is a +4.8 The team also scores more and gives up less with Batum instead of Outlaw. Batum also has a higher +/- than Outlaw. Not that +/- is that important.
You understand the difference between +/- and win% right? A 30 points loss and a 1 point win leave you 1-1 in the standing... Win% for the rescue... The Blazers win more with Travis on the court, they might lose with a higher point differential when Travis is on the court - but if it happens less often - they are still better off with him playing... It's really not that complicated...
Sorry, too many things point to Batum being better. You can twist your numbers just to argue all you want, but facts are facts. The team plays better when Outlaw is not on the floor.
Twist my numbers? It's 82games.com numbers. We win more when Travis is on the floor. The only twisting done here is not done by me. I agree that Batum is the future - I have no doubts that he will be a better player with time - but this year - the facts are clear. The Blazers won more with Travis on the floor.
It also points to the fact that the Blazers score more and give up fewer points when Batum is on the floor.
Yes, but why do you think win% is a more useful measure? It's essentially the same as evaluating teams by win-loss records versus point differential. Win-loss records are the actual results, but point differential tends to get more at how well the team is actually playing. If you count the 30 point loss as just a "loss" exactly equal in magnitude to a 1 point loss, I think you're arbitrarily throwing away information. Magnitude matters, not just direction (positive/negative).
... and we already covered it - this statistic can be easily swayed by a couple of bad or good games and is not the same as determining who the team is better playing. The win% shows that Nate knows exactly who he wanted on the floor - and rightly so. The bad +/- on Travis can be explained by two things: 1. He spent a lot more time with Sergio on the floor than Nic - and Sergio is just bad for win% and +/- - Batum's +/- might have looked a lot worse if he had to play with Sergio instead of Blake. 2. Batum is more consistent and Travis is not - which is not a real surprise - we already know that. Travis either makes the huge plays or the bonehead plays - it is who he is - but at this point in their career - playing Travis is more conducive to winning. I am going to be blatant here and say that I think your dislike for Travis and Nate are getting the best of you right now. Nate did the right thing playing Travis as much as he did - because Travis was more ready to help the team win at this point. It was done out of necessity - Batum did a great job for a rookie - and he has a great future - but his minutes had to be managed to let him learn on the fly and not burn him - and Nate did it very well. I am going to last year's Jarret Jack whine-fest again - Jarret had his share of problems last year - and the Blazers improved this year by playing Rudy his backup SG minutes - but last year playing him over Sergio was the right thing to do - and we got an ugly reminder of that this year - when we had to play Sergio backup PG minutes.
