13-10 with 2 blocks. If we hire Tonya Harding and her husband to take out refs who call touch fouls on Greg, then I say 20-15 w/5 blocks.
Dude, I think there was some seriousness to your Jarrett Jack/Devin Harris debate at first, but then you made it seem like all a joke in the end. You were one of the biggest Jack supporters out there. My expectation is that Greg makes no doubt that he's the starter over Joel next season, he comes into camp in great shape, and he develops one or two go-to moves that he's comfortable with. 13.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists in 30 mins per game.
I could Def see 13-15 ppg and 10-11 Rpg with 2 Blks.. but like already mentioned. Alot depends on his ability to stay out of foul trouble.
I don't think you understand the difference between expectations and hope. Of course I hope Greg has a monster season, but I don't expect the foul trouble issue is going to be fixed over night, and I don't expect he's going to magically develop a low post game, nor do I expect him to be getting many more looks with our current guard rotation. Therefore all I expect is a modest improvement in foul rate, a modest improvement in minutes played, and a modest improvement in his post-up game. I think the biggest difference between you and I Eric, is that you tend to look at per game stats as if that's the only meanginful way to measure player improvement or decline; LaMarcus pretty much had identical per game stats this season (and they even dropped some in the rebounds area), but just based on the eye test you could tell his post game improved and his defense improved and that he had a better season. I have little doubt that Greg will have at least modest improvement in his stats, (maybe even averaging a double-double if he can really cut the fouls) but that's really not what I'm going to be looking for. I want to see him improve his footwork on offense, develop at least one go to move in the post, and I want to see what he looks like fully recovered from the MF surgery, which I'm guessing should help his lateral quickness on defense and hopefully help him cut down on the stupid bump and touch fouls. Now if we get a starting point guard that can collapse a defense and find a cutting big like LaMarcus and Greg a couple of times a game or that can run an actual pick and roll, then I think Greg's prospects for the next season get considerably improved from a statistical standpoint, but even that won't mean that he's taken some quantum leap in development.
Expectations and predictions are different. My expectations are probably 13 and 9 and 1.5 for gregory.
I definitely agree with this. His actual numbers (points) will depend on the PGs ability to get him easy baskets. His rebounds? The Blazers lead the league in Rebounding % - My goal for Greg is to have that continue. Blocks? I'll be disappointed with less than 1.5 - I'll say he should be 2 blocks/game. Minutes - Here's the real issue. I'm optimistic that Greg can give us 28-30 per game, though it's possible he'll play more than that. Obviously, I think he can overcome his foul problems (if Nate allows him to).
This is what I expect from Oden next season: I expect he will be quicker, more explosive, have better conditioning, and have rudimentary skill on a couple of post moves. Because of that, I expect he will not be in as much foul trouble (though it will still take him out of some halfs), and will average 30 minutes per game. Numbers: Points: 13 Rebounds: 10 Blocks: 2 FG%: 58% Assists: 1 Steals: 1 Tovs: 2 If we add a top notch point guard (ie, Andre Miller) who can and will set Oden up for extra easy buckets, I would bump up the FG% to 60%, and the PPG to 15.
would you rather have oden average 18 points 10 rebounds, or like 10 points and 16 rebounds or something, saying that blocks and stuff are even?
If Oden can stay in the game an extra 5 min a game next year I think that will be huge. If he can improve on his offense and defense a tad while doing that HUUUUUGE... if not... just stay in the game big man... You know what's more important than almost all of that? Staying healthy and getting his confidence back. If he does those two things, I will be happy, because then we will have a INSANE center combo with him and Pryz.
Watch the body checks, stay out of foul trouble Demand for the ball on the pick n roll Be a defensive monster stay healthy Get leaner and into game shape Get him a point guard who knows how to feed the bigs If those things happen, we'll be very happy
1) Stay healthy or even be more healthy. 2) Stop making fouls by not keeping his hands straight up or rotating way too slow under the basket. 3) Have fun and unburden himself of the expectations of other people.
Oden said at the beginning of the season that he was going to try to block everything. And he was quoted after the draft that "I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15." Seems all a little starry-eyed now, doesn't it? This is really the first summer he'll have reasonable expectations about himself and what he can accomplish. Hopefully he came away from facing Yao with a real appreciation of all the skills he still needs to add to his repertoire. Over the past two seasons I've always been one of the most optimistic people about Oden's development. So far, I've been proven wrong over and over. But I'm still game. I think we'll add a much better PG this offseason, hopefully somebody who can deliver the ball to him in position to score. If we can't accomplish that, we'll probably upgrade defensively at SF, meaning Oden gets dinged with fewer silly fouls while trying to cover for their lapses. On top of all that, you can't discount Oden spending the next 4 months thinking about how many games he took himself out of because of silly fouls. That's got to motivate him to work on becoming quicker and better at moving his feet. So here's my prediction: 32 mpg. 15 ppg. 12 rebounds. 2 blocked shots. It's actually a little pessimistic, I think. After all this was his stats this year: 21 mpg. 9 ppg. 7 rebounds. 1 blocked shot. And that was with him recovering from surgery and learning the league.
Sure he definitely had a slow start to the season and had a much better second half, but I remember distinctly watching LMA make an effort to get into the lane with a lot more regularity than the previous two years ... he was missing his running hook left and right and got called for quite a few offensive fouls, but the improvement in his game was visible, even if it wasn't happening in the box score.
Actually, I thought about putting a minutes expectation in there, but I wanted to bug KingSpeed a little with a per-minute efficiency stat. I'm expecting about 25-30 minutes per game.
