Here's the article Basically it says Rudy is awesome and we're not going to be able to keep him too long. I agree. Here's what I think we should do about it and why. Rudy-Roy back-court is the only way Rudy's going to stay long term. When you consider Rudy can do everything Blake can do, (bring the ball up, spot up three, same quality of one on one defense) and a lot he can't (post entry pass, create without the ball, run a fast break, transition defense) them both starting begins to sound much more reasonable. Many will point out Rudy/Roy will be out quickened by many point guards, but it's not like Blake can keep up with anyone and he still gets play at the point. Help defense can do a lot to cover one mismatch as long as everyone else is doing their job. If the point is a true threat like Rose, or CP there's no one player that can stop them anyway. Good defense isn't all about one on one. It's about team D, and Rudy has shown ability to play team ball all this season. I don't see us getting anyone as our starting point guard that can do a better job than Rudy. Bayless may be our third combo guard of the future. If he becomes what many think he will he'd be the perfect fit with Roy and Rudy due to his quickness and hard play. Short term I could see us picking up a veteran guard to fill that spot (like Jason Kidd), or even using Blake off the bench til Bayless or whoever that third guard turns out to be is ready. If this isn't going to happen the fact is we're going to be best served by trading Rudy. He's going to be that good, you could see it during crunch time against Houston and all throughout the season. You could also see that he's not happy being pulled at the end of games (which he shouldn't be, especially for Outlaw). I don't want to see him get away. It's time to start considering unconventional lineups. Next up Joel + GO is the answer to our backup PF issue okay, well maybe a banger will be nice while we're still waiting on Oden.
I totally agree that Rudy won't stay if he can't start. I am also down with a Rudy/Roy starting lineup, with B-Rex being the Super Sub that comes in to spell either one. Roy - 34mpg Rudy - 32mpg B-Rex - 30mpg
Unlike Dwight, I'll worry about losing Rudy when his rookie contract is up. I trust PA to spend the money to keep him around. Furthermore, I think he'd be fine in a Ginobili role getting starters minutes playing three different backup positions.
Rudy has 2 choices: he can be a valuable reserve on a contender, or he can be a big scorer on a bad team. If the latter is what he wants, then we don't want him. Hopefully, he isn't that stupid and selfish.
After the rookie season this guy's had and with the adjustments he'll make I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up being the next Ray Allen/Reggie Miller. Each of them started on bad teams as the leading scores for years before getting a good enough supporting cast to get to the finals/win a championship. Maybe he's willing to put up with that. After all he's been willing to put up with a lower salary for a few years to come over and play with the best in the world. At the very least I think we're going to need to give him big minutes for him to stay happy.
Actually, I would be surprised if Rudy ever comes near the Reggie Miller level. He is a good player, and he will likely refine his game a bit, but given his age and international experience, he was a "rookie" in name only. He is already close to his ceiling. I do agree that he deserves substantial playing time, and will no doubt earn a nice raise when his rookie deal ends.
"Big scorers" make the most money. There's nothing stupid or selfish about deciding to make the career move that is best for one's self. People do it all the time, in all professional walks of life. I think that if you commit to a team, you have a responsibility to play for the team and not for yourself. But when it comes to making a free agent decision about where you want to go, deciding what is best for yourself is smart and perfectly reasonable. And if what is best for yourself comes down to playing a lot and earning a lot, that's smart and reasonable too.
I don't think it's stupid and selfish to want to make a crapload of money. If Rudy can make Ginobili-level money here, or he can be the bona-fide star and make half again (plus much bigger endorsement deals) somewhere else, he probably should leave. I would.
If Rudy goes, its to go to a bigger (Spanish) market or more exposure....somewhere with a sunnier disposition than Portland.
It should be noted that Rudy came off the bench for many of the Spanish National Team's games in the Olympics. I think as long as he's getting 25-35 mpg and he's making market-level money, he'll be fine here. My bigger issue is that for a guy from Palma, Portland has to suck. Miami or LA would be more his scene.
And if he's looking for glory, he'd likely win several 6th man of the year awards if both he and this team fulfill their promise. He's unlikely to win an MVP. So does he want to be Kevin Durant or Manu Ginobili?
Where does that come from exactly? since when is a 23 year old player at his ceiling? Is there something you are basing it on? Other than the experience factor?
23 years old is not exactly a young prospect, it's very rare to see great year over year improvement once somebody's body has fully developed and generally speaking 23 to 24 is seen as a cutoff point for 'upside' and physical potential. Of course this doesn't mean that he's in his prime or that this season is his plateau, but he's closer to entering that phase of his career as a basketball player than not. Why else do you think teams try to get guys as young as possible?
Nice response. I'm so used to people going strait to hyperbole that I almost missed how reasonable you're being. But just for fun, check out their first year stats: Miller Allen Taking into consideration Rudy's age you may be right, however when you take into consideration that these two were not on 54 win playoff teams their first few years I might have a point. Last season Allen averaged 17 points. Imagine Ray Allen with very few plays being run for him and 10 minutes less a game. What would his averages look like? Adjusted for minutes he'd score about 12.5 every 25 mins, then factor in a little for the plays not being run, and the difficulty of producing in limited minutes . . . hmm maybe Rudy's further along than we thought There's too many differences in their situations to make this comparison anything more than a thought exercise. If Rudy stays with the Blazers he won't average over 20 points no matter how good he is. The main reason I made the comparison is because of the similarities in their games. He isn't going to be the leader of this team (like Ray Allen in Boston) but he could be the leader of a very good team given the right support. These are the reasons why I wouldn't be surprised. Defiantly not my expectations for him as not everyone reaches their potential and there are very few guys you can pick with certainty to be great based on their first year. Just look at the stats above.
If we don't acquire any different PGs, then I would be okay with Rudy starting, but other teams would be crazy not to press that backcourt. Ball handling is not Rudy's greatest strength. In fact, that backcourt would remind me of the WC All-star team that had Sprewell and Majerle as the starting backcourt, and Barkley commented that he could dribble better than both of them. I don't think Rudy HAS to start. I think the easiest way to make sure he stays is: 1. Don't get rid of Sergio. 2. Do get rid of Blake 3. And Outlaw Mucho minutes for Rudy at 3 possible positions, 6th man of the year award. I don't see Rudy having the obsession with starting that so many American players have. That's one more area I bet he's like Ginobili. [Edit: why didn't you say that the article was written by Dwight Jaynes? OF COURSE it's gloom and doom. But hey, if Rudy netted us Rubio, I'd set him free. I watched all the Spain games and, while Rudy came up big in the final, Rubio made much more of an impact almost every game and in fact was more important than the starting PG Jose Calderon.]
The short answer: not all "rookies" are created equal. Rudy was a professional player, playing in one of the most competitive leagues in Europe. When you compare him to someone like Batum, there is no question that Rudy is more physically mature (almost 4 years older) and has spent those years refining those skills against better competition. Arguably, he even has an advantage of a 4 year college player like Roy. Rudy just turned 24. If he follows the pattern of the "average" NBA player, his development will start to level off at 26. (sorry, I don't have a link to the study handy) The obvious exceptions tend to be the best players in the league. So, unless Rudy is destined to be as good as someone like Roy - his ceiling is in sight.
