I'll give Serg some credit, he made at least some improvement over his absolutely dreadful sophomore season and elevated his game to the 'mediocre' level this past year ... even if you were to factor out the few heaves he made at the end of quarters, his 3 point % suggests he should have been looking for a different shot, part of that can't be helped, because Nate likes his guards to be able to take catch and shoot jumpers; something that isn't really in Sergio's DNA. I expect that in the right circumstances Sergio could be a productive player, and if he finds that situation I wouldn't be shocked if he becomes a solid 8th man at some point in his career, provided he at least makes marginal improvement to his jumper or at least develops some kind of tear drop or stop and pop shot. The question of whether or not Sergio is undertalented or just a bad fit isn't easy to answer right now, but I expect we'll find out when he's traded to a team that theoritcally has need of his services.
Yeah, he does. Fundamental parts of the game include: shooting, defense, IQ. Sergio lacks all three. Maybe when they make basketball without a basket.
I don't know how many last-second three pointer prayers he took this year (I would be fascinated to know) but I would bet that it was in double digits. Let's say it was 10. He only attempted 114 all year. If we assume he went 1-10, that means he shot 34.6% from three point range. Great? No. Better than his previous two years, where he was just a tick above 28 and 29 percent? Sure. As for what Nate wants: I don't really care too much what he wants, personally. I look at a simple thing like free throws attempted and it's clear how much more pressure Sergio puts on a defense than Blake does. Sergio, in 1225 minutes, made 61 of 77 free throws. Blake, in 2188 minutes, made 63 of 75. Considering that Blake was able to shoot technical free throws occasionally, and that he was often in the game at the end when intentional fouls were committed, it becomes even more obvious between the two players' abilities to get to the line... and that is a critical component, IMO, of a team's success. Another thing to consider? Sergio is younger NOW than Blake was when he played his first NBA game. Blake has been able to improve his game from benchwarmer to reasonable NBA starter in his time in the league, and Sergio should be expected to do the same... being in a big rush to run a 22 year-old point guard out of town just doesn't add up to me. Ed O.
Neither point guard puts much pressure on a defense; Sergio had a pretty pedestrian draw foul rate of 7% and Steve was absolutely horrid at 2%. On the surface you might say Sergio was three times better at drawing fouls than Steve, but three times better than god fucking awful is still nothing to crow about. (I'd put the line at somewhere around 10% for adequate-to-good). I'm not in a big hurry to run Sergio out of town, but I think the writing is pretty clearly on the wall that his playing days here are done. Part of Sergio's problem is Nate's system and the other is the fact that he doesn't seem to play all that well with Brandon, to me that means he'd probably be completely adequate as a 10-15 minute backup point guard, but until and unless Nate and Brandon are out of the picture he's never going to get the minutes and role that he wants.
I have always been a supporter of Sergio and I think he still has tons of potential. He is very exciting and fun to watch. He has improved his defense and shooting (slighlty) the last 2 years........but......unfortunatly he will never get the oportunity to blossom and reach his potential in Nates system. Nate is a VERY controling coach and I think watching Sergio run the offense with his near wild, high risk/reward, seeming out-of-control style must feel like someone is dancing on Nates nerves with golf spikes on. He is just extreamely reluctant to give Sergio a legitimate chance to play. When Blake was out for that streach of games early in the year, Sergio finally got some REAL play time and I though did pretty well. Made some mistakes and had some invisible games, but it really looked like he got more and more comfortable and steady as the games went on......unfortunatly, Bayless started getting more and more minutes as well, some times more than Sergio, due again to Nates "fear" of Sergios style. Guess we will never know....until he is playing elswhere of course.
I didn't mean to imply that you wanted him out of town... as I was responding to your post and putting that last bit in I had thought that it might look like I was. I tend to agree with you that he's a bad fit in Portland, but I'd rather have the system change a bit to give him a chance to succeed than give him away. Ed O.
SERGIO IS GARBAGE AND WILL BE OUT OF THE NBA AFTER NEXT YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DUDE LACKS EVERYTHING YOU WOULD WANT IN A CHAMPIONSHIP POINT GUARD!
Pretty harsh for somoene who is a jump shot away from being Steve Nash. If he get's one close to that he will be a very good starter on an uptempo team.
And, as much as we might be adding to the Jermaine O'Neal/Chauncey Billups "exception prototypes", one only need look as far as Jose Calderon in terms of a guy discovering a perimeter jumper. Calderon didn't shoot well from downtown until his third NBA season (when he was 26). Does this mean Sergio WILL be a good/great shooter someday? No. Does it mean that it's POSSIBLE? Sure. Ed O.
Ugh - Steve Nash had only one year (his rookie year) where he had around 25% TOV% - Sergio actually regressed this year from his rookie year in this regard - so he clearly needs to also improve on his TOV% in order to be Steve Nash. Add the fact that Steve Nash had only one year in his career where his TS% was lower than .500 - Sergio is yet to get there. By his 2nd year Nash had an offensive rating of 111 - in his 3rd (and best year) Sergio is at 103 - and this is rather bad on a team that has as a whole an offensive rating of 113.9 - which is in the all-time great offenses efficiency wise. In his entire career Nash was on one team only that had a better offensive rating than what Portland had this year - with a rating of 114.5 - his first year in PHX (2nd time around). Sergio is younger - so that goes for him - and his rebounding rate is just a tiny bit better than Nash - so there is a hope for him that in a very crazy system where defense does not matter and the idea is to run run run - he might be good - but he needs a bit more than a jump-shot to be Steve Nash - and let's get some-thing else - Nash does not just have a jump shot - he has a great jump-shot... He is a world-class jump-shooter - to the tune that for 2 years he actually lead the league in TS%... Stranger things have happened - I guess - but Sergio is unlikely to be anything more than an acceptable backup in this league if he gets to play in a GSW or D'antoni like system and his TS% actually reaches an acceptable level. He is a big improvement in decision making and ball protecting and unimaginable improvement in jump-shot from being Steve Nash...
Ugh - Nash was a 4 years college grad. That would have put him at 24ish or so in his second year in the NBA. Sergio is still only 22.
Sergio's problem is not just the 3P% - it is shooting from anywhere... there is something to be said about someone expanding his range if he can shoot - and Jose had a good TS% starting his 2nd year and he is just great now - while Sergio is still stuck in the less than .500 range after his 3rd year... In comparison - Jose's 1st (and worst) year was better, TS% wise - than Sergio's best. He went to very good (.588) in his 2nd year and has been over .600 since - which is fantastic... I am sorry - but Sergio has a long long long way to go to become anywhere as good as Jose and it is absurd to think he can ever be as good as Nash - and this is even ignoring the fact that Jose is actually a much closer to a Nate PG than Nash is - because he protects the ball exceptionally well...
Ugh, Sergio played professional basketball at the Spanish ACB league before he came to the NBA and Nash was actually 23 in his 2nd year. Yes, Sergio is younger - but the jump from a below-average shooter to a world class shooter after 3 years in the NBA and at least one more year at a professional level (more challenging than College) - is pretty questionable. Anything can happen, I guess - but one has to wonder how likely it is - and the statistics are not kind to Sergio in this regard... Look at it this way - Rudy is only one year older than Sergio, he is a rookie - and his TS% is extremely good at close to the .600 mark. Rudy can shoot. Sergio - still can not. If you want to believe that it is likely that Sergio will go from a below average shooter to an insanely great one like Nash is - you are entitled to this belief, I guess.
I don't think Sergio will ever be as good of a shooter as Nash, but I think it's silly to say that he is garbage and will be out of the league after next season though. If Sergio can even get a reliable jump shot he would be highly sought after. Without it I think he stays in the league for a while because of his passing alone. In a motion offense SErgio's value goes way up.
I did not disagree with you about the "he is not garbage" argument. I disagreed with the "he is a jump shot away from being Steve Nash" argument - he is simply not. I do not think Sergio is a good fit with this team - he dominates the ball too much, he does not mash well with Roy and he is a defensive liability. I said, clearly - that I can see him as someone useful in a backup role on a team that runs like crazy - but that's about it - even in a D'antoni like system at this point Sergio is nothing more than a backup - because these systems require scoring from the PG position - even Duhon (who came down to earth after a fantastic month or two under D'antoni) is a much better scorer than Sergio. I will be honest with you - I think the only reason Sergio got his minutes as a backup this year was because it was important to make Rudy comfortable. If this aspect was not there - I suspect we would have given JB more time to learn on the fly. Sergio is an acceptable backup in a run and gun system - he is not even this here.
