A lot of this depends on your definition of "bust." If Oden stays healthy and out of foul trouble, both significant "ifs", there is no reason he can't be a 12/12 player with good defense. If he becomes a Mutombo or rich man's Ben Wallace, he will be a valuable commodity. Whether he lives up to all the hype, is a whole different question! If saying he isn't going to be a "once in a generation superstar" equates to labeling him a bust - I plead guilty.
By "you" I was referring to a broader audience, i.e. critics saying he is a bust on the level of Darko and specifically Bill Simmons. I assumed that included you, and if I mislabeled you, my bad.
+1 I maintain that he will be a solid center in this league with multiple all star games. If he can stay healthy of course.
People who say it is an excuse are misimformed at best. Amare Stoudemire, who was an established all NBA type player had a 20.4 ppg season a year after MF surgery. That season was bookended by a pre MF surgery season of 26.0 and a 2 year post MF surgery season of 25.2. EVERY SINGLE doctor and player that has been involved in the surgery says it takes two full years to fully recover from the procedure. Now keep in mind Greg will be in his second year post surgery next year, not last year. Last year ws also Greg's rookie season, so not only did he have a year off of basketball, but he had never faced NBA competition before. Also keep in mind that his per 32 minute numbers are better than those of Dwight Howard......excpet for fouling. That s really the one thing Greg needs to work on. But rookie numbers that project to over 13/12/2 per 32 are very good.
No, injuries are a fact of NBA life. When a player misses 100 games in 2 years, that is not an excuse for shortcomings - it IS a shortcoming!
# of games Roy played in his rookie year - 57 # of games Aldridge played in his rookie year - 63 # of games Oden played in his rookie year(coming off MF mind you) - 61(not counting the playoffs)
Uh...no. Oden's rookie year = ZERO games. In his SECOND season he played 61, versus 74 for Roy and 76 for LMA.
So, we have now decided the 07-08 season just didn't exist? Isn't that just super. So, if Oden's first season doesn't exist, then Roy's first all-star appearance was also just a mirage? Phooey. The level of denial around here is reaching epic proportions.
Whether we argue about the definition of "rookie" or not is not really the issue... Oden has not produced much yet, and it's been two years since the Blazers took him with the overall pick. The questions seem to be: -- How has he looked when he's been on the floor? -- Do the things that keep him off the floor seem to be things that can be corrected over time? -- How much can he improve his on-floor play? I think that he's actually looked very good when he's been on the floor. I mean, some of his moves and plays have been ugly, but in terms of his production per minute and impact on the game I've not been very disappointed. The things that have kept him off the floor are clearly (a) injuries, and (b) foul trouble. Is he injury-prone? I hope not, and I don't think so, but there is certainly evidence that he might be. Derek Anderson always seemed to have a bunch of unrelated, unlucky injuries, but it all added up to a level of injury vulnerability that few could match. His foul trouble is something that SHOULD be correctable. He should regain quickness as he recovers from his knee injury, in particular, and he will gain experience and learn how to avoid the silly fouls that he seems to pick up with shocking regularity. As for his room for improvement... I still have a tremendous amount of confidence that he'll get a lot better. Where he is NOW, if he could merely avoid foul troubles, I think he's a borderline all-star player... but he can be a lot more. The game will slow down for him offensively and the travels and bobbles and other basketball mismanagement that we seem right at the basket should go away. He will spend time working on moves with his back to the basket and be effective beyond about 2 feet. I'm not at all worried about anything other than injuries. I still think there's a chance he'll retire as a HoF-level center. Ed O.
Yeah. Ultimately, health is a skill. Being on the floor consistently is something some players just can't do, and it limits their value. Eventually, it doesn't matter if all the injuries are "unrelated"...if a player shows a consistent pattern of injuries that keeps him off the floor, it is something that can be considered of predictive value. However, I personally don't think Oden's injury problems have yet reached "pattern" status. If he loses a significant chunk of next season too, then I'll start to wonder if he simply doesn't have the "skill" of being able to stay on the floor. It is worrying that he's piled up so many injuries in the past three years. But it's far too early to decide that it's going to be a career-long problem.
