A Long Term Plan

We've all heard the off season talk about getting a point guard/figure out our SF spot/backup PF. While there may be a place for each of those, there isn't a lot out there that's a significant upgrade. If we make a big move on trade day we might get a little better, but would it be enough to put us over the top?

Pritchard has shown patience not making a move with Raef's expiring contract last season when he perhaps could have traded it for a better upgrade than we can get this summer. So the question is, did he make a mistake or could this be a long term plan? Remember, we're talking about Mr. master of long term planning here.

All of this points in one direction for the right move, towards something further down the line. A bigger upgrade, a better piece.

Many teams in the league are looking for financial relief but they know they have until next years trade deadline before they're liable for any luxury tax for the year. That's the move date. KP is waiting for a fire sale. Big pieces for cap space. Maybe no specific player is in mind yet, only possibilities. But there are some intriguing possibilities out there.

So don't be surprised when KP trades off a bunch of our perpetual bench warmers, injury reserves, and picks for bits of cap space and sits on it. Getting the Blazers the best angle possible for a mid season deal. No upgrades this trade day, the same guys are going to be heading into training camp this season. But come February all bets are off.

 

I think we basically had 3 options for the upgrade:

1. Trade deadline with Raef. - Nothing was there that was deemed worthwhile.
2. Draft day under the cap
3. Next trade deadline under the cap if nothing happens at 2.

Between 2 and 3 - something happens, I am willing to bet. It's the last time we have cap space for a while.

It seems like KP and company like to make small changes during the year - so I am willing to bet that something happens with 2. Only if all else fails - something will happen at 3.

 

At this point, I don't see the purpose of a long-term plan. The 2011 lock-out and revamping of the CBA/salary cap is going to completely change how teams operate.

I'm not optimistic a deal gets done, but not because of any plan. More likely, it will be because KP is too attached to "his" current roster.

 

That's an interesting way of putting it. I'm not sure if I understand what you're trying to say though. It sounds to me like 'planning is pointless because the rules will change someday', or 'we need to make a move now because we might not be able to in two years,' but I'm not totally confident in my assessment.

I don't think it would be in the Blazers long term best interests to make their big move on draft day unless Pritchard catches someone bending over for a Pritch-slap. Sure freeing up more cap space with a series of smart deals is great, but a lot of getting the best deal out of others is timing.

By the trade deadline there will be teams afraid that their superstars will leave them for the 2010 free agency class. The Hornets could be going under. A trade demand could be made from some quality player on a team with the injury bug. Each of these hold much more potential for the Blazers getting a big piece to turn themselves into a long term powerhouse/contender/dynasty than any of the pieces that seem to be available on draft day.

 

IMHO, we need to make moves now to try to make a run the next 2 seasons. Stern's goal is to make the NBA like the NFL, with large scale roster turnover every off season. That's going to force everybody to change the way they plan and construct their rosters.

 

Interesting. Link please?

If that's true than we could have an advantage over the rest of the league with Paul moneybags on our side.

 

Sorry, I don't have a link readily available, but the gist of Stern's plan: a hard cap; modify or eliminate Bird rights; no guaranteed and/or long term contracts. Stern apparently views the NFL as a model of financial stability, and seems oblivious to concerns that their inflexible cap system is harming the quality of the on-the-field product.

 

I don't assign such blindness to KP. Both Sergio and Bayless had chances to show their mettle and earn serious playing time, both failed miserably. Sergio shows occasional glimpses of promise (just as he did as a rookie) but his weaknesses are too obvious and not changing. He is a fail.

Bayless doesn't have the luxury of multiple seasons to look back upon but although he showed occasional flashes of promise, I will admit to being one who was underwhelmed with his overall performance and just don't see him fitting with the Blazers near-term. Perhaps long-term he can be another Billups as some have suggested but I don't see that coming anytime soon and I'm not sure that we as fans or Bayless himself have the patience to have him sit on the bench hoping eventually it "clicks" and he is suddenly great.

I'm sure KP has copies of the various scouting reports on the Blazers noting weaknesses and how to best attack/defend the Blazers (i.e., our points of weakness). I expect KP not to say "I'm looking for X or Y" but support his team. It is not like we have a Marbury (or Miles) that is an obvious problem that we're just looking for someone to take, so there is no reason to bash anyone or hint at potential moves but I'm sure he is seriously considering all options, especially with watching the playoffs and noting things that work and don't against our direct competition and our exposed weaknesses.

I fully expect to see activity either on draft day or once the trading/offer season is open.

Gramps...

 

I am with oldmangrouch on this one. I don't see any reason to believe KP will make many changes to the roster outside the 10, 11, and 12 spots on the bench.

KP has said multiple times that he is making retaining Blake and Outlaw priorities. KP has stated in interviews he doesn't believe the team needs any major changes at all.

I am starting to come around to the notion that KP overvalues his players to the point where they become impossible to move.

The fact that he let RLEC go to waste still pisses me off.

 

Agreed. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if we head into next season with the minimum allowed players on our roster.

I don't think it's a 'KP overvalues his players' problem. I think it's a 'many players on the blazers roster are more valuable to us than they are to other teams/what we'd be able to get for them' issue.

I doubt he'd have let RLEC go if there was anything worth taking. It's too bad there wasn't anything there for it but a deal for the sake of a deal isn't a good idea. Now we are one of a few teams with significant cap space heading into the off-season/next season where we'll hopefully be able to pick up a big upgrade, maximizing our players value.

 

I still believe it was KP's job to make something good happen with that asset and he failed.

His job is to go get players he wants, not players other teams are offering. Some players are impossible to get, but outside of a select few most players can be acquired for the right deal.

What he needed to do was take a chance and instead he stood pat. I think he fucked up bad when he played it safe. Further, I think Portland's title chances took a huge hit because of it.

The cap space Portland has is nearly worthless due to this years craptastic free agent pool. Even if Portland tries to keep that space, Roy and LA are going to eat it up next year so they can't make any noise next summer. It's now or never I am afraid answer will be never.

The only hope is that Portland makes a trade where they take back more salary then they give. Unfortunately the same problem exists this offseason that existed during last season. Namely, teams aren't going to be offering different players then they were last Feb. If KP couldn't make a good deal happen then, why assume he will be able to now?

 

And what if the deal that can get that player is a bad one for Portland? Most players are available, but that doesn't mean any are available in a deal that helps Portland.

No, what he needed to do was make the team better, not take a chance just to take a chance. If there wasn't a good deal available, he'd be a terrible GM if he made a deal "just to take a chance."

Without knowing any of the deals available, what do you base that on?

Yet, even if the trade market at the deadline was "craptastic," RLEC was really valuable?

 

Tempest in a teacup.

KP has been super-active during draft day for 3 years running and very quiet during trade-deadline for 3 years line. It's a pattern that is hard to ignore.

I believe that they really thought at the start of the year that they would need a trade come trade deadline to make it into the playoffs - and that's why they were hyping the Raef asset so much - with the team winning at a much higher clip than they were expecting come deadline - they had the luxury of being selective and keeping young, attractive assets and still make the playoffs which was their target.

In hind-sight it is clear that they had good assessment of the team's ability to make the playoffs around the deadline and took the long-term look that they only make great deals - since they did not think there was one there - they did not make them. However - with cap space, lots of trade assets and additional time to evaluate their assets they are now ready and primed to make their move.

I suspect that the volume of deals on draft night will not be to the tune we have seen last years unless a deal that brings a veteran PG is reached, otherwise - they will just make some small deals during the draft and go after Miller or Sessions in free agency.

 

Honestly, I think we will get Sessions-ish quality pg with a cash offer as a free agent for a much better deal than having to take the same quality player, along with a huge contract for a trash player at the trade deadline.

Sessions for example we already know will not be bought back out by the bucks, so we just have to beat out the other teams looking to spend money in the FA market (which is almost nobody) instead of meeting their trade demands.

RLEC was nice, but if the only good offer we got to use it included we give up rudy, and take on an 80 million dollar contract to boot for example, then I firmly believe that KP made the right decision.


In short, I agree with your assessment.

 

What I said was KP needed to make a deal available, not rely on what another team wanted to deal. That's one of the major facets of his job.

I think of it like sales, to be honest. A good salesman sells you something you want. A great salesman convinces you you want what he has to sell. KP so far has been a good, but not great, salesman. I was sort of hoping for great.

 

Yes, "available." If a good deal for Portland wasn't available, then he was smart not to make a deal.

You can say that about any GM at any time. Every deadline, you can say "He should have made a great deal...I don't care who was available or how much other GMs valued what he had, his job is to sell other GMs on what he has to sell."

By that measure, every GM fails almost every day. Why didn't the Spurs add a good/great player to augment their aging roster? Don't talk to me about lack of trade bait, RC Buford's job is to sell other GMs on what he has. Name any GM you think is great (anyone in history). I can play the same rhetorical game that you are and show how he's actually not very great, because he failed to "sell" other GMs on what he had during most of his time as GM.

 

Great GM? Jerry West with the Lakers. He was even a good gm for the Lakers when he worked for Memphis.

Hell, Bob Whittsit was great for awhile until he started to believe the NBA was a fantasy league and decided locker room chemistry was overrated.

It does not appear to me KP is even trying to bring in an established good player. Though he kills in the draft, his track record with vets is nearly non-existent (Resigning a guy you already have doesn't count. Also, I don't like Blake much, so that signing would be a negative IMHO). If James Jones is the signing you are going to hang your hat on then you need serious improvement.

I would rather he go down swinging for the walls then get thrown out with even taking a single shot at the ball.

We will have to agree to disagree.

 

Most trade deadlines and off-seasons he failed to turn his non-stars into good/great players through trade. His job is not to accept what other GMs are willing to trade but to sell what he has. On that, he failed 99% of the time (the other 1% of the time being, of course, his great trades).

Jerry West--not a great salesman, didn't do a big part of his job.

The fact is, we simply have no idea what deals were actually possible (with or without brilliant salesmanship). No matter how great a salesman you are, you're not going to be able to trade an iron coin for a gold coin among a group of people picked for their evaluation skills. You're basically blaming Pritchard for not making your desires come true, with no knowledge of whether it was even possible for him to do so. That's my problem with your position. Saying, "Well, that's what salesmanship is for" is simply a non-point. "Salesmanship" isn't magic...everything is not made plausible just by invoking that word.

 

The more important thing I mentioned was Whitshit treating the team like it was a fantasy NBA team rather then an actual NBA team. He couldn't stop messing with it even after it was fine. Chemistry was a secondary problem to the main one. Namely, too many guys with similar skills who couldn't co-exist on the same team. That plus over-valuing guys he drafted in the past (Detlif and Kemp being the biggest examples).

I also didn't mean say he was a bad GM. I did say he had an excellent track record up to when he took a few gambles that didn't payoff. If what I said came off differently, then my bad.

I meant to imply that KP should be a bit more like Whitshitt and take some risks instead of standing pat and staying safe.