So KP is planning on picking Blake and Outlaw back up.

Except for the fact that you completely disregard that Oden is in the first year coming back from MF surgery and has none of the explosiveness that he had before it. Players coming off of MF surgery usually start getting the explosiveness back their 2nd year back.

Secondly, averages mean nothing. You can score a bunch one out of every 4 games and still have a good average. It doesn't mean you bring it every night. Bonzi Wells was that way, and he sucked. The way you get a good team is by players showing up and playing consistently good every night. Even when you lose, they show up and make it tough. That isn't Travis. The role of Travis is when you have exactly the right matchup offensivly, to use him to exploit the mistmatch. The rest of his game is MIA. That is because he is a tweener, and there aren't many good matchups for him, on both ends of the court. That is why you have to use him exclusively when you have the right mismatch, and that is why he is inconsistent, because other teams do not always provide that matchup.

 

I am baffled at why some posters don't understand how dumping 2 out of the top 6 rotation players on a 54-win for literally nothing is a very bad idea.

I've been criticized for "defending Outlaw", when my argument has basically been the same as Minstrel's, but I think that some people here UNDERVALUE players that they see too often and OVERVALUE those that they don't see as often. Being unable to even talk to free agents prior to July 1st also makes it even more risky to not indicate that these players will be retained.

 

I'm not disregarding that. Oden had an 18 PER during the season and an 11 PER in the playoffs. Unless he was only recovering from MF surgery in the playoffs, he clearly was much worse in the playoffs. Choker!

Averages show your overall value. It has nothing to do with "bringing it every night." Do you have evidence that a reserve who's really good 2 out of 4 games and not very good 2 out of 4 games is less valuable than a player who is mediocre every game?

 

Like everything else it is a risk/reward situation. The question is - does KP believe in these guys or at least thinks that their value as an expiring contributing player for the amount they make is higher than the no-guarantee cap space? My gut tells me that he values them more than the no-guarantee cap space - especially when you realize that at this point - until proven otherwise - they both offer a service that the current roster did not manage to get from anywhere else.

1. Blake is an acceptable NBA level PG. Last year Sergio was not and JB was not. One hopes that JB will become one - but what if he does not? Letting go of Blake with no guarantee that the team can sign a FA NBA level PG is a very big risk.

2. Outlaw was our only guy (other than Roy) that could create his own shot. We hope JB or Rudy will be able to, we hope LMA will get better in this regard and maybe Oden as well - but last year it was Roy and to a much lesser degree - Travis. All others were just hit and miss. Again - the risk is big - and makes sense for a bottom dwelling team. Thankfully - this team is no longer in this position.

My gut feeling is that signing these guys allows KP to control his destiny better in the upcoming year. They are both contributing players, they are both on a small expiring contract (making them attractive trade chips if he decides to move them) and they are both good enough to be rotation players at a playoffs caliber team (as we have seen last year). It would be a pretty big risk to take to not sign them.

Even if there are FA that require more than the cap - a sign and trade will probably be possible - so the risk/reward for not signing them is just too big...

 

Personally, that is where PER comes into the equation for me since it weighs overall impact as the season progresses. Outlaw had a PER within a half point of Richard Jefferson, Trevor Ariza, Rudy Gay, Grant Hill, and Ron Artest.

 

You can't "rely" on him. That's why he's not a starter. You couldn't rely on Fernandez, either. Sometimes he was great, sometimes invisible. And yes, ideally he'd play fewer minutes, but that's what comes when he's the only player other than Roy and Aldridge who can create his own shot.

If you blame anyone, blame Pritchard for the team he's assembled, where Outlaw is the third-best shot creator on the team. But I wouldn't even blame Pritchard, because the talent he's assembled hasn't fully blossomed yet. When/if Oden and Bayless develop, they'll be shot creators. Rudy and Batum could also become players who can create their own shots. As the young players become more developed offensive performers, Outlaw's role will shrink somewhat.

 

No need to assume. I'm always right.

Look, you're operating under the assumption that the Blazers want to maximize their ability to go shopping. I think that they've already determined who they want and that they have a plan in place to get the deal done. For argument's sake, let's assume that they've targeted a deal with the Knicks for David Lee. Let's say the Knicks like Travis Outlaw and are willing to do a sign and trade package that includes Sergio and Travis. If Lee is the guy they want, and I'm not saying he is, and if they have an agreement with the Knicks to make the deal in July, and again I'm not saying they do, then keeping the assets necessary to do the deal is perfectly smart. Again, we don't know what's happening behind the office doors at Blazers headquarters so we're in no position to judge this decision.

 

Smarts and Knowledge.

Yes.

But, also, reputation, contacts, opportunity, luck.

KP is a former player who has been involved in basketball for a long, long time. He knows a lot of people in the business and because of that was able to have doors opened that allowed him to display his smarts and knowledge.

There are likely folks that post on message boards that know MORE about the CBA then KP does.

Yes. It's true.

Even KP admits that his expertise on the CBA is not complete, which is why they brought Tom Penn in to be the capologist.

And John Nash was paid a lot to be the GM - and I wasn't. I pretty much disagreed with every move he made.

So, who is the smart one now? The board poster or the highly paid GM?

Connections and luck have more to do with being a GM then with the ability to make smart statements on the subjects surrounding the NBA. Case in point: John Nash. 2nd case in point: Isiah Thomas. 3rd case in point: Chris Wallace.

So, I reject you out-of-hand dismissing of board posts that contradict what the almighty Pritchard says or does or is rumoured to have said or done. Argue the points on their merits.

 

I'm pretty sure the CBA doesn't require the sign-off of the S2 board for a trade to go down. Maybe it should, but I don't see it in there.

Again, for all we know a deal may already agreed to by all parties and we're simply waiting for the July moratorium to end so it can happen. We simply don't know what's going on. However, as you noted in your earlier post, all that's happened so far is that KP says he's keeping Blake and Outlaw. If things change before June 30th and some other deal looks promising, I doubt that there's anything that would prevent him from changing his mind and cutting one or the other of them.