Are you implying you are a rational poster, or simply, that I'm an irrational poster? It's cool, it won't hurt my feelings. We clearly see basketball two different ways, and I'm comfortable with that. I'm just glad we both love the Blazers
Or he could pull a Turkoglu and totally break out after signing with a new team. I guess only time will tell...
I'm taking your whole stance on Ariza apart not just 1 reason. You continually ignore parts of my argument, just like you just ignored what I said about Carl Landry. I found it Landry was the 19th best player according to PER last year(if you take out the top two). http://www.basketball-reference.com...&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=per Do you think Landry is the 19th best player? Nowhere near!? They're only separated by 2.8 PER. PER is not synonymous with best player it's nothing more than a measurement for efficiency.
This thread should be bumped in a year...either by Tince or Da O....we shall see who. I have my money on Tince
No I do not. I do think the vast majority of that list is closer to accurate. I think Ariza's PER undervalues him more than overvalues him. I suppose we could find any one stat, and find someone who is an outliar. Again, I'll stick by everything I've seen with my own two eyes. Ariza is better than Batum, I think he'll have a better career than Batum, and I think he would really really help us next year and in the future. I've worked for a basketball scouting service, so this isn't my first rodeo or anything. I've seen a lot of players play, and he has that similar "it" factor that Shane Battier has.
Normally, I don't like Laker fans taking my side. They should make a function that allows us to set a time to bump a thread in the future, that would be sweet. I think it will take people more than a year to realize Ariza's true value. You're going to hear the "potential" argument with Batum for at least 3 years. And I think he does have more potential than Ariza, but I doubt he'll end up being a better player.
I'm saying it now, Martell and Batum's ceiling are both higher than Ariza's. That being said, Ariza played well in the playoffs!
Again, I'm going to have to disagree with you. I have a hard time believing Batum wont become better than an NBA journeymen who's career high ppg is 8.9. I already think Batum's defense is nearly on par with Ariza's, Batum just gambles less. We have other pressing needs than wasting cap space(that we wont have in a long time) to bring in another SF that can't create and gives us a redundant skill set.
You should probably clarify that thats in the playoffs. And that in the regular season he is 16th and our back-up (Outlaw) is barely lower.
Net 48-Minute Production by Position: Ariza = -5.6, Outlaw = -5.7 Not much of a difference if you ask me. Ariza's opponent PER at the SF position is 25.1 while Outlaws is 19.3
Joel only played 23 minutes a game last year and thats with Oden being in perpetual foul trouble and being injured, so it is not that much of a difference.
I'd prefer to have Joel play those minutes over AV and save the cap space. He doesn't seem worth 7 million to me.
It was clarified a few posts down, but thank you for clarifying it again. Are we saying since Outlaw's PER is way better than Batum, that he is a better fit for us? That's a little dicey to me. Again, I just go off the eyeball test, and Ariza is a difference maker.
Yeah I saw that after I posted, my bad. I don't like PER much, and I, too, use the eyeball test and I say Batum is a better fit than Outlaw, and he will be better than Ariza soon, because to me he is not far behind him. It really doesn't seem like anything you say or anything Da O says will change either of your opinions, or mine for that matter, so I'm gonna propose that we agree to disagree.
Well when you use objective evidence it's clear that he's not. Use your eyes and brain, and use objective evidence. That's the best way. If the two converge, then you probably got something. If not, then rethink your position. Using only your eyes and brain opens you up to a host of cognitive and logical fallacies.
Thanks for the advice. I'll be sure to give the scouting service I work for their money back since a guy on a message board doesn't think I know what I'm talking about.
First off, claiming to be on a scouting service doesn't get you anywhere, I have very little reason to take you more seriously or even believe you. Just because you work for a scouting service doesn't make me think your opinion is higher than anyone else here. If you don't like my opinion don't respond it's that simple. The fact (and yes, it is a scientific fact) is that the human mind is prone to cognitive biases that affect our judgment. Scouts are no exception to tis, that's why the draft is always hit or miss.
I was joking buddy. I didn't realize until now that our exchange got to the point where there was some bitterness. I'm sorry you don't believe that I working for a scouting company, but it's true. I guess I'm used to using the statistics, scouting techniques, and video clips that our company uses, but I'm sure there is a flaw in what we do. I'm sure my mind is prone to cognitive biases if you say all humans (yourself included), and I'm not saying it's impossible I'm wrong. Typically I overrate current Blazers and underrate Lakers (because I hate them). I guess only time will tell who ends up being the better player. If we don't get Ariza and keep Batum, I'll be rooting hard for you to be 100% correct.
