Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age

I find this sort of stuff fun and helpful. It sort of puts players' ability levels/rate of progression in perspective. I do this every off season and it helps forecast which non-Blazers could be the likely targets of the team.

I only include players that I feel fit the team "culture" and team principles. Here's the criteria in order (feel free to criticize or make any additions):

- High Basketball IQ
- Skilled
- Versatility
- Strong Work Ethic
- Experience in high-level competition (i.e. Olympics, NCAA Tournament, etc.)
- Coachable

More secondary attributes:

- Personable
- Defensive Tools (i.e. height, length, etc...)
- Developed in a Renowned Program

Since Ricky Rubio is still 18 (until October) and Jrue Holiday just turned 19 (this month), they're in their own unique categories unto themselves. I think it's very important to place both Rubio and Holiday in more of a forgiving context when comparing them to these other older players.

Here's the list:

- Ricky Rubio (19 in Oct.)
- Jrue Holiday (20 next Jun.)
- Serge Ibaka (property of OKC; 20 in Sep.)
- Jonny Flynn (21 in Feb.)
- Nick Calathes (21 in Feb.)
- Omri Casspi (21 on June 22nd)
- Osiris Eldridge (21 on June 18th)
- Dejuan Blair (21 in Apr.)

Many of you that spout "Rubio" is all hype, consider this. He's performed very well in a relatively competitive league, against the best the World has to offer, and he's still 20 months younger than Jonny Flynn! You'd have to age him, not one year, but nearly two years before he's the same age as Flynn! Put him in a fancy technological device, that resembles a dryer, switch the dial to 20 months, bring him out and then let's see how good he is.

There's absolutely no argument from me that he's not the second best prospect, and it could be argued, he is the best prospect in this draft.

As for Holiday, I didn't realize he was that young. He's only four months older than Ricky. Again, like with Ricky, I can't help but want to age him 8 months and see what sort of impact he could have compared with Flynn. As you can see Flynn is my benchmark. My main beef with Holiday is that we couldn't see what he could do as playmaker. This is where scouts would have a much better handle on how his game would translate to the NBA at the 1. Personally, given the steep cost to move up to get him, it's too much of a risk to focus on him unless he drops.

Blair's lack of height worries me a little, Mr. Elastic Man has a wingspan of 7' 2", so he may be just fine. Further proof that he'll be fine was his performance this year in the toughest conference, the Big East, where he put up 16 points on 60% shooting. So were his 1.5 steals a game. I do still question is ability to defend the 4s and 5s, but we'll see. His FT shooting must improve for him to really take his impact to the next level. Still, 13 rebounds in the Big East is HUGE. He will be one of the best rebounders in this league for as long as he's healthy. I won't put him ahead of Milsap, only because at the same age Milsap put up very similar stats and he has translated that to success in the NBA, whereas Blair has yet to prove that he can do the same. But, I would put him ahead of Bass.


Serge Ibaka still intrigues the hell out of me. I believe Pritch and the scouts were highly interested in him last year. He's long and works hard. He's still learning the game though. I love it that he played in the ACB this season. He did pretty well too. In 16 minutes, he averaged 7 points, 5 boards, and a block. Considering his age, and the experience gained in the Spanish League, I think he's on track. The draft isn't the only place to get young prospects.

Jonny Flynn we've discussed a ton. He's one of my favorites. If he can make it past Sacramento in the draft, I think we could move up and snag him for a relatively cheap price (same cost as Holiday, but you're getting a superior player IMO). After Ricky Rubio, I rank Flynn as the next best under-21 prospect. He would fit our team perfectly. Perfectly.

I don't think Nick Calathes will ever be an All-Star, but he'll be a solid starter eventually. He would be a very good low-cost, high-reward type player. That he could play in Greece for next season and get more seasoning makes him even more attractive to me. If things fall through with any grandiose plans in this draft, he might be a good option to use if we move down (from our first rounder) or up (with one of our second rounders).

Omri Casspi is getting popular it seems. I hope not too much. I view Casspi in the same way as Calathes.

I only included Osiris Eldridge because he came to Portland for a workout. He's a possibility with one of our second rounders. I believe he's still in the draft. Not sure how heady he is. I really don't think much of this kid, but I never did see him play.

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

We should never have someone named Serge on our team again

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

The next group are the the 21-year olds. This is where it gets crowded.

- Ty Lawson (turns 22 in Nov.)
- Mike Conley (Memphis; turns 22 in Oct.)
- Stephen Curry (turns 22 in Mar.)
- Gerald Henderson (turns 22 in Dec.)
- Danny Green (turns 22 in Jun.)
- Wayne Ellington (turns 22 in Oct.)
- Terrence Williams (turns 22 in Jun.)
- Darren Collison (turns 22 in Aug.)
- Austin Daye (turns 22 in Jun.)
- Alexis Ajinca (Bobcats; turns 22 in May)
- Rodrigue Beaubois (turns 22 in Feb.)
- Sergio Llull (turns 22 in Nov.)
- Nando De Colo (turns 22 in Jun.)
- Henk Norel (turns 22 in Sep.)
- Emir Preldzic (turns 22 in Sep.)
- Joe Ingles (turns 22 in Oct.)
- Jerel McNeal (turns 22 in Jul.)
- Derrick Brown (turns 22 in Sep.)


Obviously Conley and Curry are the class of this age group. Where would Conley rank against Rubio, Curry, Flynn, and Holiday? He's 5 months older than Curry, 20 months older than Flynn, 28 months older than Holiday, and 32 months older than Rubio. Flashback two years to when Conley was partnering up with Oden to take Ohio State to NCAA Championship game. He was only 19, and a young 19 at that. I could see a Curry or Flynn (at the same ages) and Oden tandem having a similar impact in the NCAA.

What's interesting about Curry is that his astonishing NCAA Tournament performance came a year ago, making it easier to compare him with Flynn at the same age. We've of course heard the Bobcats' beat writer reveal that Portland is hot on the trail of Curry. We've also heard that Curry, along with Flynn, was secretly interviewed by Pritchard in Chicago.

As much as I like Flynn, I'm left wondering, after going back to look at Davidson's run to the Sweet16 last year, if Curry is the superior player. Flynn can put a team on his back as well, but Curry took that to another level that year.

Conley would be right in the mix talent-wise with Curry and Flynn.

Ty Lawson, I had to go back and take a closer look at. His stats are fantastic. In fact they mirror Conley's, at the same age. Where he falls short is in the length department. His wingspan is 6 ft. Conley has 5 inches on him there. Easy decision now. Next, comparing him with Flynn, I'm shocked and disappointed that Flynn's numbers this year compared with Lawson's last year (same age) fall flat. Lawson owns Flynn in this regard. Yet, again, like with Conley, Flynn has 4 inches more wingspan. Lastly, the ACC, IMO, was weaker last year, than the Big East was this year. When you factor in this, I have to give the edge to Flynn (whew, that makes me feel better).

I'm changing my rankings to Rubio -> Curry -> Conley -> Flynn -> Lawson.

Like Rubio, Curry and Conley are going to be expensive to get. Flynn will be cheaper. Lawson will be cheapest. This is important to keep in mind I think.

The next five players on the list are all swingmen, and all of the same age. It makes it pretty nice for comparison purposes. Gerald Henderson and Danny Green are my two faves. Their all-around games, knowledge of the game, and defense are going to make them, I think, quality starters, at the very least. I worry about Ellington's inability to make his own offense and Williams' decision making. Daye seems more average than above average on the whole, and for that reason I rank him below the others.

All of these 2/3 s would rate below the aforementioned point guards in my book.

Ajinca really intrigues me still, but not more than Ibaka. Although Ajinca is a buddy of Batum's and bigger, I like the fact that Ibaka played in a better league and got more playing time last year and this year. He may be a year younger, but I think he'll develop faster and be less expensive to acquire. Considering our lack of depth in the frontcourt of quality bigs, I'd be very interested in adding either of these players to the team if the right deal presented itself. In fact I'd rank them ahead of any of those 2/3 s directly above in importance. Of course that could change depending on which more experienced, yet equally talented big men are sought after in the coming weeks.

Darren Collison's size actually seems like it would hurt him in the NBA. This puts him in the same realm as the fellows below.

Beaubois, Llull and De Colo each have some great attributes, but also each have some deep question marks. Beaubois and Llull both didn't produce as well as I'd liked to have seen. Llull, being in the better league, might have the edge between the two of them, but not against De Colo who did accrue some better stats. Defensively Beaubois wins hands down. Offensively, the edge must go again to De Colo. For me it comes down to De Colo's playmaking vs. Beaubois' defensive ability. I don't have a handle on who should be placed higher. De Colo & Beaubois -> Llull. All of these guys would be in the back of the bus compared with the other players under 22.

Other notables, holding on to the bus's back bumper are Henk Norel, who took a development step back at the Euro Camp, but still has some promise, Emir Preldzic, who sort of disappeared off the face of the Earth, Joe Ingles, the Australian we worked out today, and Derrick Brown, who the team will bring in tomorrow, but as a PF, is an average rebounder, which is not what we need. Lastly Jerel McNeal might be a good spark plug to grab in the second round. He's way undersized as a 2 and he has no 1 skills, but he's a defensive pest and I liked him at Marquette. The Euros and Aussie are projects, and worth a chance with one of our second rounders.

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

Anyone know how to change the title of the thread? I was hoping to remove the "(18-20))".

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

Done. It was difficult, dangerous and took a great deal of skill, but your smile is reward enough. Unless you'd like to pay me money.

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

Check's in the mail. Post dated of course to "LA Clippers Win Championship".

Thank Min!

 

Re: Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age (18-20))

LOTBfan You might appreciate Serge Ibaka more after you hear this guys analysis. He is a fantasy Basketball guy but there is a bit that is relevant to you at about 4:45.

[video=youtube;4TvzeAHLtfE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TvzeAHLtfE[/video]

 

Whoops. I had to revise the rankings of the 21-year olds. For some reason I had Mike Conley Jr. listed as a 22-year old. He won't be until this October. He's now in the 21-year olds' list.

 

Aren't Greg Oden and Nate McMillen about the same age?

 

Next up 22-year olds.

- Joe Alexander (Milwaukee, turns 23 in Dec.)
- Marvin Williams (Altanta/RFA; turns 23 in 2 days)
- Hasheem Thabeet (turns 23 in Feb.)
- Chris Douglas-Roberts (New Jersey; turns 23 in Jan.)
- Jonas Jerebko (turns 23 in Mar.)
- Marcus Thornton (turns 23 next Jun.)
- Eric Maynor (turns 23 next Jun.)
- A.J. Price (turns 23 in Oct.)
- Jermaine Taylor (turns 23 in Dec.)
- Micah Downs (turns 23 in Sep.)
- Dante Cunningham (turns 23 in Apr.)
- Jeff Pendergraph (turns 23 in Apr.)
- Chinemelu Elonu (turns 23 in Mar.)
- A.J. Abrams (turns 23 in Oct.)
- Michael Bramos (turns 23 in May)
- Bamba Fall (turns 23 in 9 days)
- Ahmad Nivins (turns 23 in Feb.)

Obviously Thabeet is the pink elephant in the room. He's the cream of the big man crop and that's saying something about that crop and not so much about him. I'm just not a big fan. I guess that's what happens when you have the quality of big men that we do.

Marvin Williams is interesting to me. He's the best small forward under 23. He has Playoff experience. He's from Washington. I believe Pritchard's been after him before. His PER has improved year after year. He hails from a solid college program. He's the perfect fit IMO.

Douglas-Roberts is the clear third best prospect in this group. Comparing him to the other 2/3 s in his age group, other than Williams, is helpful to show how far behind Alexander, Jerebko, Taylor, Thornton, and Downs are. This really speaks to the depth of last years draft that Douglas-Roberts would fall as far as he did. Many of these guys who are obviously less skilled could be taken in the same range that he was. So how does CDR compare with Henderson and Green, who are a year younger. The shooting stats favor CDR, except FT shooting, wouldn't you know. I'd rather have CDR. His FG% and 3PT% alone make this a good reason. The dark horse to consider is Casspi, who's two years younger than all of them.

CDR probably would be more expensive to get than the lesser guards/forwards.

Of the group of swingmen excluding CDR, Alexander, Jerebko, Thornton seem like the most intriguing, and likely the former would get the edge because of the "free" seasoning he'd receive in Europe. Taylor and Down bring up the rear.

I'd rank the 2/3 s: Williams -> CDR -> Henderson -> Green -> Casspi -> Joe Alexander -> Ellington = Williams = Jerebko -> Thornton -> The Rest

Maynor (finally!) and Price are around the same age which makes it easier to determine who's the better prospect. Actually this is a no brainer for me. Maynor hands down. But how do they compare with the 21-year olds. Maynor can't even get into the conversation about stacking up well next to the other elite PGs younger than him. He's below Holiday, but above Calathes IMO. I would say that he and Collison are fairly close to each other. Maynor may be taller, but Collison's reach is better and exceeds Maynor's. Collison's a better shooter and plays much better defense. I would take Collison over Maynor.

As for Price I'd easily take Beaubois, Llull or De Colo over him.

Abrams' numbers are slightly worse on the whole than Price's and McNeal's, so I'm putting him below them. Thornton is still far superior to Bramos so we can lump him in with the "rest" of the swingmen. Bamba Fall was similar to Chris Johnson, but Johnson was the better shot blocker.

Ahmad Nivins in another intriguing prospect. I'm not sure if his rebounding numbers and shooting percentages are inflated because of playing at St. Joes, but he's got a solid game. Enough to put him just below Johnson but ahead of Fall.

I can't wait to hear more about the work out today with Cunningham and Pendergraph. Elonu came in a few weeks back and it didn't sound like he knocked anyone's socks off. From what I know I like Pendergraph better because of his better shooting. Otherwise, they're pretty similar.

 

I thought Greg was older.

 

Completely forgot about Marvin Williams. I've added him to the crop of talent age 22. In fact he's the most important forward under 23 IMO and should be one of the highest priorities to look at this off season. He fits the team perfectly.

 

Looking solely at players under 23, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Stephen Curry
3. Mike Conley
4. Jonny Flynn
5. Jrue Holiday
6. Darren Collison
7. Eric Maynor
8. Nick Calathes
9. Beaubois
10. Llull
11. De Colo
12. A.J. Price
13. Jerel McNeal

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Marvin Williams
2. Chris Douglas-Robers
3. Gerald Henderson
4. Danny Green
5. Omri Casspi
6. Joe Alexander
7. Wayne Ellington
8. Terrance Williams
9. Jerebko
10. Thornton
11. Joe Ingles
12. Emir Preldzic
13. Downs

Big Men

1. Thabeet
2. Pendergraph
3. Cunningham
4. Serge Ibaka
5. Ajinca
6. Henk Norel
7. Derrick Brown
8. Elonu

 

Added Joe Alexander to the 22 year olds. I had originally thought he was 23 going on 24, but he's 22 going on 23.

 

23-year olds:

- Ramon Sessions (Milwaukie; turns 24 in Apr.)
- Brandon Rush (Indiana; turns 24 in Jul.)
- Trevor Ariza (FA; turns 24 in 13 days)
- Tyler Hansbrough (turns 24 in Nov.)
- Garrett Temple (turns 24 in May)
- Chris Johnson (turns 24 in Jul.)
- Jeremy Pargo (turns 24 in Mar.)

So where does Ramon Sessions fit with the other point guards. I question whether he would have been able to contribute to a team like Ohio State, three years ago, in the way Conley did, nor would he likely have been the leader and playmaker that Flynn was, three years ago, at Syracuse. I'd still put him ahead of Holiday for the same reasons I couldn't put Holiday in front of any of the other top PGs.

Ariza, while a year older, still isn't the all-around player Marvin Williams is. But while Ariza is a year older than CDR, I don't see CDR progressing fast enough in one year to overcome the impact Ariza had this season.

CDR, although a year younger, still produced more than Rush.

Hansbrough is 17 months older than Pendergraph, yet he has 2 inches less wingspan and similar stats. Pendergraph will be cheaper to get. Pendergraph takes the lead.

Chris Johnson is interesting. Sub-par rebounder, but good shot blocker. Garrett Temple is an ordinary off-guard. He'll go near the bottom of the prospect list.

Jeremy Pargo is tough dude. I like that about him. He's a much better defender than Maynor and their numbers are very similar offensively. I've got to rank Pargo below Maynor though because of age, he's 15 months older. I can't put him ahead of Calathes or the youngsters in Europe either.

 

Looking solely at players under 24, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Stephen Curry
3. Mike Conley
4. Jonny Flynn
5. Ramon Sessions
6. Jrue Holiday
7. Darren Collison
8. Eric Maynor
9. Nick Calathes
10. Rodrigue Beaubois
11. Sergio Llull
12. De Colo
13. A.J. Price
14. Jerel McNeal

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Marvin Williams
2. Chris Douglas-Roberts
3. Gerald Henderson
4. Danny Green
5. Omri Casspi
6. Joe Alexander
7. Wayne Ellington
8. Terrance Williams
9. Jerebko
10. Thornton
11. Joe Ingles
12. Emir Preldzic
13. Downs
14. Garrett Temple

Big Men

1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Jeff Pendergraph
3. Tyler Hansbrough
4. Dante Cunningham
5. Chris Johnson
6. Serge Ibaka
7. Ajinca
8. Henk Norel
9. Derrick Brown
10. Elonu

 

24-year olds:

- Chris Paul (Hornets; turns 25 in May)
- Luol Deng (Chicago; turns 25 in April)
- Tiago Splitter (Spurs; turns 25 in Jan.)
- Paul Milsap (FA; turns 25 in Feb.)
- Brandon Bass (FA; turns 25 in Apr.)
- Sam Young (turns 25 next June)
- Josh Ship (turns 25 in Feb.)

Chris Paul is the benchmark I measure all current PGs by. It may be very unlikely, but I've included him in here because of the financial limitations the Hornets are facing. It's a long shot, but just maybe we could pry him away. His numbers his sophomore season, except for scoring, were better than Curry's sophomore season (same age), and that's in a superior conference. However, Curry hung in there. This speaks loudly about how good Curry will be I think. I do expect Ricky Rubio to be as elite as Paul.

Deng is obviously much more talented than Young and Shipp. But, how does he compare with Marvin Williams. First, keep in mind that Deng is two years older than Williams. Comparing their numbers when they're both 22 you find that Deng, hands down, is the better prospect. Simplified Deng's PER was over 18 and Williams is over 16. That's fairly significant. Deng had a down season last year, which is all the more reason, if you trust your "book" on a player, to make a move for him while the cost is low. I'm guessing that the cost to acquire Deng would be as much as Williams, while getting a superior player. Deng's contract is relatively reasonable also. It's long, but for a core player, that's ok. The cost would be inline in relation to the max contract for Roy ($14.25 starting, assuming the cap is set to $57M).

Sam Young > Josh Shipp. No argument about this.

I'd love to gain the rights to Splitter, even if he never comes over. Just the chance that he would is enough. The Spurs would be silly to give him up, but they might if they feel he won't come over.

What a great battle between Milsap and Bass! What the fuck is it about Louisiana and big men? Milsap has shown more and with less experience in the NBA.

 

Forgot to add Rush to the 23-year olds.

 

I don't think that's a meaningful question, trying to project him backward in age. He wasn't considered as good a prospect as Conley or Flynn, but that's clear from where they were drafted (or is expected to be drafted, in Flynn's case). But Sessions has developed beyond his prospect status and that's what matters. Sessions may not have projected to where he is now, but he's gotten here now...so now we need to project him forward based on what he actually has accomplished at his age, not from where he was expected to go when he was 20-21.

At age 21, in the NBA, he put up a 16.4 PER.
At age 22, he put up a 17.6 PER.

Both marks are above average for a starter in the NBA. And he was extremely young when he put up those marks. He still has more upside left, based on his age. In his age-22 season, he was about where Devin Harris was at 22. I don't think it's at all unlikely that he could also reach the 20-21 PER mark, considering he's already near an 18 PER.

Further, he put up some really big numbers this past year when he became a starter, with some huge assist games. To me, this suggests that he wasn't just efficient as a backup, but that he retains his efficiency as his minutes and role scale up.

I think Sessions is the most likely "under-the-radar" (to casual fans, at least) point guard to turn into a star or near-star. In your listing of point guards, I'd put him second to Rubio in desirability (I'm currently not counting Chris Paul because I don't think he's at all attainable).