Analyzing potential Blazers that are similar in age

Looking solely at players under 25, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Chris Paul
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Ramon Sessions
4. Stephen Curry
5. Mike Conley
6. Jonny Flynn
7. Jrue Holiday
8. Darren Collison
9. Eric Maynor
10. Nick Calathes
11. Rodrigue Beaubois
12. Sergio Llull
13. De Colo
14. A.J. Price
15. Jerel McNeal

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Luol Deng
2. Marvin Williams
3. Chris Douglas-Robers
4. Gerald Henderson
5. Danny Green
6. Omri Casspi
7. Sam Young
8. Brandon Rush
9. Joe Alexander
10. Wayne Ellington
11. Terrance Williams
12. Jerebko
13. Thornton
14. Josh Shipp
15. Joe Ingles
16. Emir Preldzic
17. Downs
18. Garrett Temple

Big Men

1. Tiago Splitter
2. Paul Milsap
3. Brandon Bass
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. Jeff Pendergraph
6. Tyler Hansbrough
7. Dante Cunningham
8. Chris Johnson
9. Serge Ibaka
10. Ajinca
11. Henk Norel
12. Derrick Brown
13. Elonu

 

Great to get your perspective and to brainstorm about this. That makes total sense.

 

Now adding the 25-year olds and there was only one that I see worth mentioning - Nate Robinson. He'll turn 26 in May.

Sessions' size and being two years younger places Nate firmly behind him. IMO, Curry, Conley, and Flynn are securely ahead of Robinson, due to size and being three to four years younger. I expect all of those young players to exceed or meet Robinson's impact (greater than or equal to 19 PER).

I can't put Robinson behind Holiday though, for the very same reasons that I couldn't move Holiday up against any of the younger guards below.

 

New rankings including Nate Robinson:

Looking solely at players under 26, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Chris Paul
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Ramon Sessions
4. Stephen Curry
5. Mike Conley
6. Jonny Flynn
7. Nate Robinson
8. Jrue Holiday
9. Darren Collison
10. Eric Maynor
11. Nick Calathes
12. Rodrigue Beaubois
13. Sergio Llull
14. De Colo
15. A.J. Price
16. Jerel McNeal

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Luol Deng
2. Marvin Williams
3. Chris Douglas-Robers
4. Gerald Henderson
5. Danny Green
6. Omri Casspi
7. Sam Young
8. Brandon Rush
9. Joe Alexander
10. Wayne Ellington
11. Terrance Williams
12. Jerebko
13. Thornton
14. Josh Shipp
15. Joe Ingles
16. Emir Preldzic
17. Downs
18. Garrett Temple

Big Men

1. Tiago Splitter
2. Paul Milsap
3. Brandon Bass
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. Jeff Pendergraph
6. Tyler Hansbrough
7. Dante Cunningham
8. Chris Johnson
9. Serge Ibaka
10. Ajinca
11. Henk Norel
12. Derrick Brown
13. Elonu

 

Players that are 26. This is where it gets really interesting to me. Here's the list. And yes, I added Devin Harris because of the rumored availability for the right cost.

- Gerald Wallace (Charlotte; turns 27 in Jul.)
- Devin Harris (New Jersey; turns 27 in Feb.)
- Josh Childress (Atlanta RFA; turns 27 next Jun.)
- David Lee (FA; turns 27 in Apr.)
- Ben Gordon (FA; turns 27 in Apr.)
- T.J. Ford (Indiana, turns 27 in Mar.)
- Ronny Turiaf (Goldenstate; turns 27 in Jan.)
- Channing Frye (?; turns 27 in May)
- Jimmy Baron (turns 27 next Jun.)
- Leandro Barbosa (turns 27 in Nov.)

Devin Harris is the stud of this group. He's below Paul, but IMO, still below Rubio as well. He's very evenly matched with Ramon Sessions surprisingly if comparing stats at the same age. What PER doesn't pick up on is defensive impact, and because of that, I'd rate Harris securely above Sessions.

While we're talking about guards, what about Ford and Gordon? Ford had a down year in Indiana, but has posted seasons of 20+ and 18+ PER. For this alone, I'd put Ford over Gordon. And for the same reason I'd put Ford ahead of Nate Robinson as well. I can't however give the nod to Gordon over Robinson. I just like Nate's game more.

Josh Childress has been one of my faves for awhile now. Without looking at the stats, I can fairly place Childress below Deng but above Williams.

I put Childress and Wallace on par with one another.

Lastly, the bigs: Lee, Turiaf, and Frye. Lee wins this battle hands down. Turiaf has been more consistent than Frye. I still like Splitter more than Lee, but David would knock off Paul Milsap from that second spot. David put up even better numbers than Milsap at the same age. I'm surprised, but looking at the stats, I'd rate Pendergraph higher than both Turiaf and Frye. He's a better shooter than Frye was and rebounder than Turiaf.

Jimmy Baron doesn't float my boat, and he's much older than the others in the draft (26!), but he put up decent numbers in the ACC. I guess he's worth a look. Shrug.

Barbosa may not be a 1 or a 2, but he's a damn good tweener. I like him better than Ben Gordon.

 

Looking solely at players under 27, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Chris Paul
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Devin Harris
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Stephen Curry
6. Mike Conley
7. Jonny Flynn
8. T.J. Ford
9. Nate Robinson
10. Jrue Holiday
11. Leandro Barbosa
12. Ben Gordon
13. Darren Collison
14. Eric Maynor
15. Nick Calathes
16. Rodrigue Beaubois
17. Sergio Llull
18. De Colo
19. Jeremy Pargo
20. A.J. Price
21. Jerel McNeal
22. A.J. Abrams

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Luol Deng
2a. Gerald Wallace
2b. Josh Childress
3. Marvin Williams
4. Chris Douglas-Robers
5. Gerald Henderson
6. Danny Green
7. Omri Casspi
8. Sam Young
9. Brandon Rush
10. Joe Alexander
11. Wayne Ellington
12. Terrance Williams
13. Jerebko
14. Thornton
15. Josh Shipp
16. Joe Ingles
17. Jimmy Baron
18a. Emir Preldzic
18b. Downs
18c. Garrett Temple

Big Men

1. Tiago Splitter
2. David Lee
3. Paul Milsap
4. Brandon Bass
5. Hasheem Thabeet
6. Jeff Pendergraph
7. Ronny Turiaf
8. Channing Frye
9. Tyler Hansbrough
10. Dante Cunningham
11. Chris Johnson
12. Ahmad Nivins
13. Bamba Fall
14. Serge Ibaka
15. Ajinca
16a. Michael Bramos
16b. Henk Norel
16c. Derrick Brown
16d. Elonu

 

Added the 22-year olds that are coming in for tomorrow's workout to their section below and the rankings below.

- A.J. Abrams (turns 23 in Oct.)
- Michael Bramos (turns 23 in May)
- Bamba Fall (turns 23 in 9 days)
- Ahmad Nivins (turns 23 in Feb.)

 

Added Jeremy Pargo to the 23-year olds' page and the new rankings.

 

Added Jimmy Baron to the 26-year olds' page and the new rankings.

 

I didn't realize Gerald Wallace was still 26. I added him to that age group and the ranking.

 

Jeez. Didn't realize Barbosa was still 26 as well. I think that's it for that age group.

 

I didn't see that. I've never heard a player make that a priority before. Have you?

Hey Ricky. I know a young team ...

 

There aren't any 27-year olds, but there's one 28-year old that fits the bill - Kirk Hinrich.

To be honest I'm not sure where to rank Kirk. His regular season numbers are below average for a starter. Most people forget to add his defense though into the equation. This brings his status up. He had a great impact in the Playoff series against Chicago (in fact his PER was over 17).

I want to put him ahead of T.J. Ford and Nate Robinson, but the numbers won't let me. To be consistent with what I'm trying to do here, I'm going to put him below Nate. That doesn't mean his value to Portland wouldn't be greater though or that the situation in Chicago that last two seasons hasn't been conducive to his style of game.

Call me out if you think I'm wrong on this ranking or any of the others.

 

Looking solely at players under 29, so far, here's my ranking of players, by position, that Portland would be interested in through the draft, free agency, or via trade.

Point Guard

1. Chris Paul
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Devin Harris
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Stephen Curry
6. Mike Conley
7. Jonny Flynn
8. Ty Lawson
9. T.J. Ford
10. Nate Robinson
11. Jrue Holiday
12. Kirk Hinrich
13. Leandro Barbosa
14. Ben Gordon
15. Darren Collison
16. Eric Maynor
17. Nick Calathes
18. Rodrigue Beaubois
19. Sergio Llull
20. De Colo
21. Jeremy Pargo
22. A.J. Price
23. Jerel McNeal
24. A.J. Abrams

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Luol Deng
2a. Gerald Wallace
2b. Josh Childress
3. Marvin Williams
4. Chris Douglas-Robers
5. Gerald Henderson
6. Danny Green
7. Omri Casspi
8. Sam Young
9. Brandon Rush
10. Joe Alexander
11. Wayne Ellington
12. Terrance Williams
13. Jerebko
14. Thornton
15. Josh Shipp
16. Joe Ingles
17. Jimmy Baron
18a. Emir Preldzic
18b. Downs
18c. Garrett Temple

Big Men

1. Tiago Splitter
2. David Lee
3. Paul Milsap
4. Dejuan Blair
5. Brandon Bass
6. Hasheem Thabeet
7. Jeff Pendergraph
8. Ronny Turiaf
9. Channing Frye
10. Tyler Hansbrough
11. Dante Cunningham
12. Chris Johnson
13. Ahmad Nivins
14. Bamba Fall
15. Serge Ibaka
16. Ajinca
17a. Michael Bramos
17b. Henk Norel
17c. Derrick Brown
17d. Elonu

 

Hey, Crim...this is a pretty cool exercise. You've built a nice list to look over.

I wonder though why you didn't include DeJuan Blair (age 20) among your big men? He seems like a pretty primary target of speculation and a great fit, potentially.

 

Well I could say it was because of his knees, but really it's because I'm a dumbass. I completely forgot about him. I'll add him in tonight. Thanks!

 

Dejuan Blair now added to the OP, where the 20-year olds and under are. Plus, he's now in the latest set of rankings.

 

Added Ty Lawson to the 21-year old section and to the latest rankings. There. I think I got everyone. Anyone else notice someone I've left off?

 

Cool. Now that the positional rankings are finished. It's important to add forecasted labels for each player so that another list, that disregard position, can be compiled. This will rank all players, under 29, regardless of position. The forecasted labels, All NBA, All Star, Starter, Reserve, are their projected ceiling. This second list is further below.

Point Guard

1. Chris Paul - All NBA
2. Ricky Rubio - All NBA
3. Devin Harris - All Star
4. Ramon Sessions - All Star
5. Stephen Curry - All Star
6. Mike Conley - All Star
7. Jonny Flynn - All Star
8. Ty Lawson - Starter
9. T.J. Ford - Starter
10. Nate Robinson - Starter
11. Jrue Holiday - Starter
12. Kirk Hinrich - Starter
13. Leandro Barbosa - Starter
14. Ben Gordon - Starter
15. Darren Collison - Reserve
16. Eric Maynor - Reserve
17. Nick Calathes - Reserve
18. Rodrigue Beaubois - Reserve
19. Sergio Llull - Reserve
20. De Colo - Reserve
21. Jeremy Pargo - Reserve
22. A.J. Price - Reserve
23. Jerel McNeal - Reserve
24. A.J. Abrams - Reserve

Big Guards/Small Forwards

1. Luol Deng - All Star
2a. Gerald Wallace - Starter
2b. Josh Childress - Starter
3. Marvin Williams - Starter
4. Chris Douglas-Roberts - Starter
5. Gerald Henderson - Starter
6. Danny Green - Reserve
7. Omri Casspi - Reserve
8. Sam Young - Reserve
9. Brandon Rush - Reserve
10. Joe Alexander - Reserve
11. Wayne Ellington - Reserve
12. Terrance Williams - Reserve
13. Jerebko - Reserve
14. Thornton - Reserve
15. Josh Shipp - Reserve
16. Joe Ingles - Reserve
17. Jimmy Baron - Reserve
18a. Emir Preldzic - Reserve
18b. Downs - Reserve
18c. Garrett Temple - Reserve

Big Men

1. Tiago Splitter - Starter
2. David Lee - Starter
3. Paul Milsap - Starter
4. Dejuan Blair - Starter
5. Brandon Bass - Reserve
6. Hasheem Thabeet - Reserve
7. Jeff Pendergraph - Reserve
8. Ronny Turiaf - Reserve
9. Channing Frye - Reserve
10. Tyler Hansbrough - Reserve
11. Dante Cunningham - Reserve
12. Chris Johnson - Reserve
13. Ahmad Nivins - Reserve
14. Bamba Fall - Reserve
15. Serge Ibaka - Reserve
16. Ajinca - Reserve
17a. Michael Bramos - Reserve
17b. Henk Norel - Reserve
17c. Derrick Brown - Reserve
17d. Elonu - Reserve

All NBA

1. Chris Paul - All NBA
2. Ricky Rubio - All NBA

All Star

3. Devin Harris - All Star
4. Luol Deng - All Star
5. Ramon Sessions - All Star
6. Stephen Curry - All Star
7. Mike Conley - All Star
8. Jonny Flynn - All Star

Starter

9. Tiago Splitter - Starter
10a. Gerald Wallace - Starter
10b. Josh Childress - Starter
10c. David Lee - Starter
11. Paul Milsap - Starter
12. Marvin Williams - Starter
13. Dejuan Blair - Starter
14. Ty Lawson - Starter
15. T.J. Ford - Starter
16. Nate Robinson - Starter
17. Jrue Holiday - Starter
18. Kirk Hinrich - Starter
19. Chris Douglas-Roberts - Starter
20. Gerald Henderson - Starter
21. Leandro Barbosa - Starter
22. Ben Gordon - Starter

Reserve

23. Danny Green - Reserve
24. Brandon Bass - Reserve
25. Hasheem Thabeet - Reserve
26. Jeff Pendergraph - Reserve
27. Ronny Turiaf - Reserve
28. Channing Frye - Reserve
29. Tyler Hansbrough - Reserve
30. Dante Cunningham - Reserve
31. Chris Johnson - Reserve
32. Ahmad Nivins - Reserve
33. Darren Collison - Reserve
34. Omri Casspi - Reserve
35. Eric Maynor - Reserve
36. Nick Calathes - Reserve
37. Rodrigue Beaubois - Reserve
38. Sergio Llull - Reserve
39. De Colo - Reserve
40. Bamba Fall - Reserve
41. Serge Ibaka - Reserve
42. Ajinca - Reserve
43. Sam Young - Reserve
44. Brandon Rush - Reserve
45. Joe Alexander - Reserve
46. Wayne Ellington - Reserve
47. Terrance Williams - Reserve
48. Jerebko - Reserve
49. Thornton - Reserve
50. Jeremy Pargo - Reserve
51. A.J. Price - Reserve
52. Jerel McNeal - Reserve

The Rest

A.J. Abrams - Reserve
Josh Shipp - Reserve
Joe Ingles - Reserve
Jimmy Baron - Reserve
Emir Preldzic - Reserve
Downs - Reserve
Garrett Temple - Reserve
Michael Bramos - Reserve
Henk Norel - Reserve
Derrick Brown - Reserve
Elonu - Reserve