http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-090618 A pretty interesting article by John Hollinger from ESPN insider and his draft rater tool that he's used for the past seven years. Looking at past years this tool has made some surprisingly accurate predictions about player value (Rondo, and Boozer being very highly rated for instance). This year's list really surprised me, especially the number one guy. Code: 1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34 2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21 3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02 4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24 5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18 6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66 7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56 8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28 9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99 10. James Harden Arizona State 12.97 11. H. Thabeet Connecticut 12.90 12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88 With Lawson projected to go anywhere from 19th to 23rd (depending on mock) and the bit I heard on the radio that the Blazers are trying to get him in for a workout what would you guys think of taking Lawson if he fell to us, or if we moved up a few spots to take him? I've been pretty luke warm on him, but the more I think about it, the more I wonder if he could end up being one helluva steal in this draft. Thoughts?
I can't see the article cause I'm not an insider but was Rubio on this list? Was he not included due to his European stats?
You know. Im with you. Although i thought quite highly of him after the tournament, the shine wore off. His size started weighing on me and his predraft measurements were not as good as his peers. When the team didnt bring him in And when i didnt hear any rumors about interest on our side i thought the team went cold on hime due to the trouble he got into last year. I hope they take a strong look at him. Ill add him to my list in the other thread.
Lawson is a shock, of course, but Daye might be even a bigger one. PGs have been pretty weakly predicted by Hollinger's system (which had a ROUGH year last year) and so Lawson might just be a systematic variance issue. This is the first good thing I've heard about Daye, though, in months. Ed O.
Hollinger said he'd discuss Rubio in an article next week; he has separate metrics for measuring Euro league stats This comes from another insider article dated June 23rd last year: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-080622 Lawson is an enigma for me, but I guess you do have to look at his whole body of work as a college player, he's got more to go on than a typical one and done guy ... I'm still scratching my head on what he's going to do in the league, but hell if a midget like Jameer Nelson or DJ Augstin can make it I guess Lawson can too; I mean I always used to think of him as Ray Felton 2.0 because of the system they come from, but Lawson can shoot the rock, something Felton has never been able to do efficiently. As for Daye, he's got great skill and length, if he ever packs on some muscle he might actually end up a decent player too (though I wouldn't bank on it).
pure point rating (assists and turnover metric) is a pretty big part of his measurement, I'm guessing that despite Hansbrough's scoring and rebounding numbers there are some built-in knocks on him due to some other deficiencies.
I love Lawson. I've been very high on him since his Freshman year. When all is said and done, he'll be a top 5 player from this draft class...if not higher. I'm hoping he's a target for us.
For full disclosure, I'd like a complete list of totally wrong predictions that that rater has made. One of them would be Batum (which, granted, is his seperate "Euro-rater") who he said "couldn't play". I wonder how Raymond Felton looked through this system...
I agree with you. I was really hoping we would draft Lawson last year. Then he went back to college... and won a championship. I say if he falls, we should get him.
I like Lawson, too. However, KP doesn't just see "if he falls". If he wants Lawson, he'll move up a couple spots to get him. Remember that to cash strapped teams, a high 2nd rounder is more valuable than a 1st rounder, and we have a high 2nd rounder to trade - that's what he did to get Batum.
The rater for college and euro players are based on different algorithms. But lets be real, Batum looked awfully passive in euroleague play and his stats were pretty underwhelming. Hollinger acknowledges that his tool is subject to error with one and done guys and very young prospects -- it's not perfect, it's just a way to help in making a prediction that he acknowledges should take a back seat to conventional wisdom. As for Felton it had him rated so-so (a projected third year PER of 13.6 which is almost exactly the PER he produced). http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...umnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-History but it's not like Felton is a complete scrub, he did manage to put up 14 points and 7 assists in 37 minutes the past 3 years
