I mentioned this before, so this idea is a variation of another idea, but if: - Jordan Hill fell to #5 - we acquired the #5 pick from Washington by moving Blake, Sergio, and the #24 for Haywood (I've explained elsewhere how this could benefit the Wizards financially) Then, we send Hill and Outlaw to Memphis for Mike Conley. If using the #2 on Rubio, that's quite a draft day for Memphis. The major issue I see is that we're sending out a lot. Blake, Sergio, #24, and Outlaw for essentially Conley. I suppose the questions is, and this only really matters to those that value Conley highly, can we get a comparable upgrade at PG for less?
Well, yeah, I think so: Sessions. I still think it's unlikely Milwaukee will match on Sessions. Villaneuva seems to be more important to them and this is a point guard heavy draft. So, either Portland can get Sessions for just their cap space or for a courtesy spare part in a sign-and-trade. Of course, this is only true for people who value Sessions. I am one who does. I like him more than Conley Jr. (but not as much as Rubio).
Blake, Sergio, #24, and Outlaw for Conley Jr. is a good deal for Portland. The #5 and Outlaw for Conley Jr. is a fair deal for Memphis. If Washington is willing to get hosed on talent to save cash, this works fine. However, if Portland can get the #5 for just Blake, Sergio and the #24, I'd probably rather try to use it (in an upgraded package) to move higher in the draft, to go after Rubio. If that's impossible, I'm not against Conley Jr. I just think the #5 could be used for bigger game.
I guess I'm worried still about Atlanta. They're going to have cap space and they would be closer to his home town. I just don't want to leave a "Conley" on the table and get rejected by Sessions or surprised by Milwaukee. I'm guessing Pritchard already has a good idea from Sessions' agent what his interest may be with Portland and Milwaukee's intentions.
Why do you value Sessions above MCJ? I'm just curious. I also agree that if we can get the #5 we should make a play for Rubio maybe #5 + Frye the rights to Freeland, cash, a raft of second rounders and future picks. Memphis would have to at least consider that given that Rubio publicly declared he doesn't want to play in Memphis. I assume he would like a chance to play with the young core of Portland.
I think he's a better slasher, distributor and defender. Even though Conley is the better long-range shooter, it doesn't even out as Sessions has been 3-4 PER better than Conley in their two seasons in the NBA.
I'm not disagreeing but are you sure that Sessions is a better defender? I'm too lazy to look it up......so I'm gonna trust you if you reiterate then that will sell me on it.
I'm not a huge fan of defensive stats, but the most interesting one, IMO, is Defensive Rating (basketball-reference has it as DRtg in the advanced stats on each player page). It basically compares how the team does defensively with the player on the floor and with the player off the floor and is expressed in terms of how many points the team gives up per 100 possessions due to that player. Sessions' DRtg is 109, Conley's is 112. For what it's worth. It's not a huge difference, but it is significant. Most of my belief in their defensive difference comes from watching them play. I think Sessions is better now and has the tools to be even better. Conley is quick, but small even for a point guard. Sessions is about average for a point guard in size and still quite quick.
To answer the question, I think the trade is too much to get Conley. With that said, if we can get the #5, there may be a chance that Rubio falls that far and we can take him at #5. I would imagine that KP will be playing the waiting game to see where Rubio goes. I don't think the trading (any teams) will start until Rubio gets selected.
It's not a fair deal for Washington IMO. They get nothing in return for the #5 pick. Shedding salary helps the owner, but I don't think they need to include the #5 pick to do that.
My problem with getting Conley because he's Greg's BFF is, what if it doesn't go well for Conley here? What if it turns out he's not that great or Nate disapproves of his defensive effort, or whatever? Then where do Greg's loyalties lie?
For whatever reason, the way you just ended your thought there, about how the excitement starts when Rubio is selected, got me amped. I can't wait for the draft to begin. You'd think I'd be less excited about this draft, but I'm the exact opposite.
I get the impression that times are tough for the Wizards. The luxury tax threshold is rumored to drop to the mid-$60Ms. If that's true, they could be paying $13M in luxury tax. In this economy, and with this draft, the Wizards may find that if their "guy" isn't left for selection, they may be better off turning the #5 into #24, while shedding some salary and adding young, and IMO, still promising point guard to the team. The Grizzlies made a similar move when they sent Pau to LA, so it can happen. I agree they get lowballed. Thanks for the feedback, MM.
I am also very excited for the draft this year. We have so many options for KP to play with that it gets me excited to think about and look forward to watching un-fold. I just hope that we don't stand pat with #24 (no trades) or even worse trade out of the first round. I would be disappointed, but trust that KP know what he is doing.
Not a fair trade for WAshington. If they are getting rid of their #5, they want a veteran impact player to make a push now as their core is getting older. Haywood is also big for them, and they really suffered without him last year. So I don't think that trade is close to fair for them, but fair everywhere else. Secondly, I don't want Conley anymore. I think there are actually better attainable options, and kinda like Bayless better anyway. Him and Greg are becoming good friends as well. Rubio, Sessions and Harris are much better options, imo, though 2 of the 3 seem like long shots. But i'm also excited for the draft, because I think that KP will make his major move on draft day. I think he is most comfortable on that day, which is fine.
I agree. I think there are better options than Conley, but I would not be disappointed if we got him. I am looking forward to trade day...er draft day and watching KP work his magic.
