Draft strategy: Get Washington's pick!

Washington has made no secret of putting its #5 up for sale right from the word go. The price: a useful, cheap veteran and taking salary off their hands.
Now it's starting to look like either Rubio could drop there (supposedly Sacramento is very divided on him) or a player Memphis might want could drop there and they could be persuaded to swap. Either way: GET THAT PICK! One or more of Rubio, Curry and Flynn WILL be there.

I say: Blake (started out there, Maryland hero, now a good deal better) and Outlaw (although they have two good scoring Fs already) or Przybilla for the #5 and one or more bad contract from the following:

Player (contract each year starting '09-10)
Antawn Jamison (11.6, 13.4, 15)
Etan Thomas (7.4)
Mike James (6.5)
Brendan Haywood (6)
Darius Songaila (4.5, 4.8)
Deshawn Stevenson (4.9, 5.2)

[COLOR="#Purple"](Early termination)[/COLOR]

 

Man, some of you really overvalue our players.

 

I'd offer this year and next years #1 picks, cash and Sergio for the #5.

 

Jarret Jack and Josh McRoberts and our 13th pick got us all the way up to 11th and brought back an oft-injured, barely used, undersized power forward. How in the world does Steve "journeyman" Blake, Travis "never met a shot I didn't like" Outlaw and/or Joel Przybilla get us from 24th to 5th?

Washington is going to get FAR better offers for their fifth pick

 

You can't have it both ways: you think this is a shitty draft, so shouldn't the 5th pick be worth next to nothing?

Besides, I think YOU'RE undervaluing the effect of the economy. The cap is coming down because of shrinkage, so teams will be desperate to offload salary.

 

Like what?

 

I'm not so sure about that. FAR better?? It'll be interesting to see what they do get.

 

Even if there isn't a whole lot of separation between most picks outside of Griffin and Rubio, the fact remains that if Rubio slides this far (and I don't see any way Geoff Petrie lets that happen) Washington would still be able to extort a pretty heavy price for him. Teams with more attractive picks and players are going to be lining up to get him.

 

Any team in rebuilding mode with a top ten pick and a need for a point guard is going to be able to offer that pick and can probably throw in another player or two.

Let's put it this way, if some team came at with an offer of a journeyman 29 year old point guard and an inconsistent scoring tweener forward for your fifth pick would you bite? Washington is going to be looking for something sexier than that.

 

Maybe. We do have an advantage in our cap room, if we're prepared to take crap back. Most other teams can't do that, and one that can (Detroit) has Rodney Stuckey.

 

Hmmm ... yeah I guess so. I'll believe it when I see it -- Blake and Outlaw (they aren't going to want Przybilla's salary and limited offensive skills I'd wager) for Rubio would be a pretty tough sell to their fans I would imagine. Honestly, do you really think Petrie would pass on Rubio if he falls past Memphis and OKC? Geoff has one of the best eyes for talent I've ever seen and I have zero doubt he knows just how good Rubio could be,

We've got to get Memphis' pick IMO if we're really commited to getting Rubio and I don't see them as being likely trade partners based on what we have to offer and what they need.

 

Anyone ever notice that when you attach the NUMBER of the pick in a trade, it seems like it holds much more value than say the player's name.

Which sounds better?
Deshawn Stevenson and the #5

or

DeShawn Stevenson and Jordan Hill

In most years, Rudy would be worth the #5, but would we really deal a talent like Rudy for Jordan Hill, Stephan Curry, or Tyreke Evens?

I think people get enamored with the thought of such a high pick, but when you put a name to the number, it doesn't sound so hot.

 

Okay, how about this:

What if Portland got the #5 by also solving all of Washington's short-term and long-term salary-cap problems? The Wizards really screwed themselves when they signed both Arenas and Jamison to big contract extensions last summer; now it looks like their team, even if all their key players get healthy, can't really compete with Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston in the East, and yet they're stuck in luxury tax hell for years to come.

Portland is perhaps the only team in the NBA who can (a) get them out of the luxury tax zone immediately, (b) give them substantial salary-cap space heading into next summer's free agent bonanza, and (c) still send back a couple of decent young prospects to help their rebuilding project.

To do this, Portland would have to take on the risk of big financial commitments... but I think this could just be the one big deal that legitimately opens the Blazers' championship window today while still keeping a lot of potential on deck for the future.

Here's my idea for how this deal could look:

For salary-cap reasons, this trade has to be done in two parts:

1. On Draft Day: Washington trades Gilbert Arenas and the #5 pick to Portland for Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, and the #24 pick.
2. On July 1: Washington trades Antawn Jamison to Portland for Jerryd Bayless and Raef LaFrentz (resigned to a new contract with one guaranteed year at ~$7 million per year)


Why Portland Does It:
1. The #5 pick gets you the PG of the future -- hopefully Rubio (maybe by packaging #5 with next year's pick for #2?) or take KP's choice of Curry, Flynn, Jennings, Evans, etc.
2. Gilbert Arenas. If he can complete his comeback from his knee injury, he is the PG of the present, and a guy who I think would really thrive playing alongside Brandon Roy. Other teams would have a nightmare defending that backcourt, and while I don't know if I'd like to rely on Gilbert as *the* franchise player on a team, I think he would kill as a second/third/fourth option. He's 27 years old and had near-MVP level talent before his injury; I don't think there's a more talented player we could possibly acquire.
3. Antawn Jamison. Here's the steady veteran some have been clamoring for for so long. I'd see him playing ~25 a night as the main backup for both forward spots. Maybe he could win a second 6th Man of the Year award.


Why Washington Does It:

1. Massive, massive cost savings. Outlaw and Blake have unique non-guaranteed contracts that can be traded now but waived before July 1; I think that means that Portland is probably the only team in the NBA that can make a trade that saves another team significant salary and cap space immediately. In this deal, Washington almost certainly waives Blake ($4M) and probably waives Travis ($3.6M) for $$ reasons. Doing this deal saves Washington $23 million next season alone -- instead of paying $16M to Arenas, $11M to Jamison, $3M to the #5 pick, and $7M in luxury tax, they only pay $7M to Raef, $4M to Webster, $2M to Bayless, and $1M to the #24 pick. Looking beyond next season, Washington sheds another $92 million in salary commitments to Arenas, Jamison, and the #5 over the next four seasons.
2. Cap Space in summer 2010. All kinds of teams have been scrambling to free up cap space to try to sign the marquee free agents coming available next year (LeBron, Wade, etc.). This deal would leave Washington with 11 players under contract at a cost of only $40 million entering that summer; that would leave them almost $20 million in cap space to chase new players.
3. Decent young prospects. The only two Blazers they'd be likely to keep from this deal -- Webster and Bayless -- would both have a decent chance to develop into key players on a rebuilding Wizards squad built around Caron Butler.


This would obviously be an extreme high-risk/high-reward move for the Blazers. Most notably, if Arenas can never play well again, we'd be on the hook for a lot of money. But this year's free agent class is frankly not that impressive, and I don't know if there would be any better way for us to load up on talent. If I'm adding things up correctly, we'd be able to just barely stay out of the luxury tax for the next two seasons even if we made this deal and signed Roy and Aldridge to big extensions, but then we'd almost certainly be paying luxury tax from 2011-14. Would Paul Allen be willing to do that? I don't know... but to me this looks like the 9-man rotation of a championship team:

PG: Arenas / [#5 pick (Rubio?)]
SG: Roy / Rudy
SF: Batum / Jamison
PF: Aldridge / Jamison
C: Oden / Przybilla

What do you think? Would you do this if you Portland? If you were Washington?

SR

 

Last time Washington had the #5 pick they traded it (Devin Harris) for Antawn Jamison. I don't think this draft is as good, so maybe a player of his caliber (a few years ago) wouldn't be required...but who really knows these days with teams dumping salary, etc.

I don't know if I'm super excited about the upper tier players outside of Rubio who might be available. Who would you take...Evans? I like Harden but he's redundant with Roy and Rudy around, and almost certainly won't be there.

 

I'd take that risk. Of course, as Ed says, it's easy to spend Paul Allen's money. I'd understand if he didn't want to take on such huge contractual obligations, especially with a young roster that is likely to become very expensive on its own in future years.

But damn, the potential of this trade would be impressive. Especially if Pritchard could parlay the #5 pick into Rubio (either by trading up further or Rubio somehow slipping to #5).

If Arenas still has his natural ability and Portland had Rubio as his backup, their backcourt would be amazingly lethal. And their front court would be even more potent than before with Jamison off the bench.

 

Here's one rumor of what Minnesota is offering for the #5:

Is that any better than Outlaw, Blake, AND absorbing bad salary? Hell, throw the #24 and/or picks down the road!

But I don't like THIS:

Hmm...

TARGET SACRAMENTO'S PICK!

 

Outlaw is slightly > Miller
Foye is > Blake, but Blake is more clutch
18 obviously > 24, but maybe WAS would want a lower pick in that draft range to save money?

Never the less, they turned it down, but our offerings aren't too far off. I would think adding 32 or next years protected 1st might put us over the top.

 

Really interesting idea. From Portland's side it seems like a crazy-good deal, provided Paul Allen wants to spend the money.

From the Wizards side, though....you have to wonder if that leaves them with enough talent to sell tickets. It's The Caron Butler Show! Hmmm. Kind of hard to sell. Even if Bayless blows up. I guess your point is that they get that Franchise player in free agency, but Washington will be so wiped out of talent that it's not going to be that attractive of a destination.

To really interest Washington, I think you might have to throw in Fernandez instead of Webster. He could be that ticket draw that they'll be lacking.

I'd love to have Jamison as our backup PF/SF.

That'd get you:
PG: Arenas / [#5 pick (Rubio?)]
SG: Roy / Webster
SF: Batum / Jamison
PF: Aldridge / Jamison
C: Oden / Przybilla

If Arenas looks like he's coming back at 80% or better, that's still a good deal for Portland. If he isn't, I'm not so excited.

 

One of the main reasons (perhaps THE main reason) Washington is looking to move the 5 pick is they don't want to take on the required guaranteed rookie scale salary contract of a high 1st round pick. They are loaded with huge contracts and are looking to either move down far enough that the rookie contract obligations become much more reasonable, or move totally out of the first round AND dump a bad contract if possible. This is srtictly a cost cutting measure. It's not about getting equal talent in return. It's about dumping salary and minimizing their future financial commtiments.

So, I doubt they consider getting another top 10 pick in return a "+" in this case. They might find the 24, or better still, a hand full of 2nd rounders more to their liking. They could roll the dice on several 2nd round picks, work with them through summer league, training camp and preseason and see if any of them are worth keepig and then sign them to relatively cheap contracts. If not, they let them walk with no financial obligations.

BNM