Yes, really. Roy and LMA spoiled us. They worked their butts off and showed incredible improvement in their second season. Not everyone has the maturity, work ethic, etc, to do that. I would bet that their growth curve was well above average - and you can't just assume that of every player.
We don't know where he's going to be exactly, but it doesn't follow that we have NO idea where he's going to be. Is he going to be worse than last year? I guess it's possible, in spite of having additional time to recover from his injury. I think it's much more likely, though, that he's going to show moderate improvement as most second year NBA players do. Saying we have "no fucking idea" what he's going to give us is an odd position to take, IMO, except insofar as we have no fucking idea what ANYONE will give us. Ed O.
With absolutely no changes, just internal improvement and growth from their young players (mostly Oden), I see no reason they aren't a dark horse next year and a contender by 2011 at the latest.
I think one can argue we know what we have right now from Batum and Oden, and the only question is how much they improve. I cannot imagine either of those two getting worse. I think the biggest concern is injuries. We were relatively unscathed this season of serious important injuries.
OK, Little Alex could have worded his post a bit more artfully - but his underlying point is still valid. Some fans are prepared to just assume that the team is somehow going to get a LOT better without any significant roster moves. That is a wild leap into the void.
Not "somehow." Developing with age is not black magic. It's the expected result for players as young and inexperienced as Oden, Bayless, Batum and Rudy. There have been studies of pro athletes, and the average career arc is pretty predictable. Big yearly gains for players who are around 18-23, then smaller yearly gains as they get closer to their prime (starting around age 26-27). Sure, some players fail to develop much but they're the exceptions. There will be players who develop faster or slower than the norm...but the norm is still the expected route unless we have some special reason to believe these players will be different (like an injury or a documented lack of work ethic). Oden and Bayless are already reportedly working hard and I've heard nothing to suggest Rudy or Batum are lazy or uncommitted to work. We have some idea. We don't know for certain. Those are very different statements.
Of the games in regular season and playoffs that we lost by 5 or less OR went into OT, 5/10 we were out rebounded and coincidentally Old Greg got into foul trouble or did not play due to injury. The other 5 Old Greg had pretty good nights. That being said, these small tweaks in his game do directly improve our victories.
Well I guess your idea of important injury and mine are two different things. I felt Greg going out with the knee chip was a pretty big hit on the team, as he was just starting to roll. Martell being out the whole year made it hard to feel the extent of that injury. It may or may not have been important, we don't know how Martell was going to play.
I would question SA and Boston so high up, simply because of age. SA was the OLDEST team in the league last year. You don't even have Dallas on there and yet they basically swept SA. Is Ginobli that important? I can't imagine Boston is too spry as well where it counts, the big three. Injuries like KG are going to be more frequent with age. I would also like to see Portland a little closer to Denver based on regular season match ups and Dallas above NO.
I agree about Oden getting the injury hurt, but I mean something like Roy or Aldridge being out for 4 months, the key pieces like KG going down and all the other "OMG if we hadn't lost (Player X) we would have rolled the Lakers!!!11!!1"
Ginobili is hugely important. But it should also be noted, with the severity of his ankle injury, that he might never play again. The Spurs had no chance without Ginobili. With him it is much different, although again they are a year older. Without Ginobili, they lack scoring. Boston showed that they can compete even with KG out this year. They took Orlando as far as Cleveland did, without KG.
Well, how much better can you get than 54 wins--60? Are you saying that we couldn't win 6 more games next year???
not really. I play fantasy hoops every year and one of the strategies that I employ is projecting 2nd year players to improve... believe me, it's served me well. Guys generally get comfortable with what the league is all about and settle in with their new digs. They often show dramatic results of being surrounded by professional trainers, nutritionists, coaches, and being able to focus on hoops all the time. Physically males continue to develop until about 25, so 2nd year players have that arc going for them as well. Improvement for 2nd year players isn't a given, but it is the norm. STOMP
Yea but if you think about it, maybe one of those might have got the Blazers 1 or 2 more wins, and into the number 2 seed instead of matched up with Houston. Then we could have got to run over a injured New Orleans team like a freight train, and get some playoff confidence rolling.
Yea but I think the thing that folks are leery of is the waiting 6 years for a guy to become an average player, at best. We can't afford any more Travis Outlaw's on the team. Players have to improve, and be ready to play in the league by their 3rd year at least, IMO.
Rubio and Outlaw are nothing alike as prospects. Outlaw had barely played basketball when drafted, he had no basketball skills...he was purely an elite athlete that the Blazers hoped could translate his athleticism to basketball. Unsurprising that it took him a long time to really establish himself in the NBA. Rubio definitely doesn't get by on athleticism. He's considered a very talented basketball player with skills that informed scouts believe will be elite. I think Rubio is extremely likely to be a really good player in three seasons. I think he could very well be a contributor (probably off the bench) as a rookie and a good player by his second season
