Did you bother to consider they wouldn't allow him to do any serious leg strength training until May 2009? Or that he is coming off of microfracture? Or that he missed last season? Look if Oden doesn't have a 2009/0 season in which he is: an absolute rebounding monster, much more polished on offense and far better at defense then his rookie campaign I would be nothing short of stunned. Oden for MIP in 2009/2010.
Heck, Zach Randolph who was a lot more skilled than Oden and did not lose an entire year of basketball - had improved from 16.9 PER and 1.2 win score in the year after his surgery to 22.8 PER and 5.4 win-score a year better. If Oden only improves half as much - he is going to be a beast next year. A beast...
So say you were trying to prevent somebody from moving up and taking your player. So you throw a rumor out there you are offering a player with much more value in a trade than they can deal with. They may not try to move up. Personally I don't think it makes any sense because I don't think Portland wants anybody in this draft. But if you did, you could throw that bone out there to mess with folks.
Ding ding ding. Pritchard is a master of misdirection look at the Bayless draft. That's why I feel like we are making a trade for an established player or looking at Flynn or Evans. It's someone no one is considering. It could be something eminently guessable ala Hinrich but my mind doesn't want to go there.
But nobody is going to buy offering up Oden for a top 5 pick, so there is no misdirection there. Nobody would buy it. Maybe Rudy, sure, I can buy that. Not with oden, though.
If Minni became a mediocre team it would be a huge improvement over completely shitty team. Why bother trying to build a team in this draft if you can trade two of the picks and get a guy who is better then both them put together? I still don't understand the logic. It isn't like the guys they pick at 5 and 6 are going to be good enough to do much to help the team either. Even if you assume that one of those guys becomes as good as Harris, which is a giant assumption, why wait? There are always going to be other teams in the hunt. Orl and Cle are going to be elite teams for the foreseeable future. It's not like Howard and LeBron are old men now. In addition, they will have to contend with OKC, Portland, Utah and Denver. Trying to time it just right so your team is good at the right time assumes that all of the other teams stay the same or get worse.
In this weak draft? I disagree. I would much rather have a higher pick from one of the past drafts than a high pick from this year.
Crimson, I agree with you on Howard. He clearly is a very good center, but I think back to the Olympics and the finals against LA, and I see something missing. I think he isn't mentally flexible enough to truly take advantage of his skills. Also, he competes, but he isn't a killer competitor. It is uncertain yet how much Oden will improve, but I think he will eventually surpass Howard. As we all know, he will have to learn to dial back some aggression on defense. I do see him though, as really liking to compete well in the big games.
The irony is, I doubt any team in the top 5 would deal their pick for Oden. Outside of die-hard Blazer fans, nobody thinks the kid is *that* great.
I have to agree. Outside of Rubio and maybe Griffin, no one else in the top five interests me a great deal. And having the "total talent" broken into five players is a lot less useful to the team. It's the opposite of a consolidation deal.
I think you sell Presti short. He is not an idiot. The Clippers, Memphis, Kings and Minni - you might be right.
Except NBA scouts, GMs and statistical analysts. A poll in the middle of last season asked GMs whether they'd rather have Oden or Derrick Rose and the majority picked Oden. This was after Rose's extremely great start and before he faded over the second half. What you mean is that no fanbases outside of Portland's think Oden is anything special. That doesn't worry me much.
Ah yes, the voice of objectivity. Again, I'll take people who know what they're talking about (GMs, scouts, statistical analysts) over a fan who has an axe to grind, like you. On the other hand, one brilliant analyst agrees with you--Bill Simmons. So you have that going for you.
