I usually don't like to speculate this far in the future, but I have also been saying that the Warriors are likely three years away from any major success (assuming no major deals are done, and assuming none of the Warriors turn into players far more amazing than I could ever imagine). Since this seems to be a rocky time in Warriors-land morale, I figure I should share why I feel this way, for better or worse. I'm not gonna start blaming people, but rather go only into basketball-related reasons for this. Reason number one that the Warriors are far away from major success is the salary cap mess we've gotten into. Not only is the salary cap expected to shrink, this means that the luxury cap tax is going to shrink - and Cohan has been traditionally averse to paying it. Now, he's gone right up to it with Mully convincing him in the past - but I don't know if he'll continue to do so. Management of the salary cap is the most important thing to sign free agents, meaning I'll discuss the free agent classes of the next 3 years - of course a lot will change, but as you will see, not very much will change for the Warriors barring trades. So, starting with 2009 Free Agency. We are right at the cap, around $60 million after signing our first round pick. So, this means we've only got our exceptions to go any further. But, there are no good targets for a MLE-type player this year. There are a few marquee names (Marion, Turkoglu, Iverson, Artest, Miller, Bibby, Lee, Kidd, Wallace, and possible other early terminators), but those are clearly out of reach except by sign and trade, and none of the teams with those players have any motivation to do so (unless the Knicks want to package off Lee for Curry). We are unlikely to draw veterans like Jason Kidd who may be willing to play for less, because they want to win with a veteran team close the championship, and many are comfortable in their current situations. The best mid-level type targets are Rodney Carney, Drew Gooden, or Chris Wilcox... serviceable players, but hardly bringing us out of our situation. Moving on to 2010 Free Agency. The summer of hope for many teams. However, this is not so for us! We're looking at the same team we have now, plus a draft pick (probably in the lottery). Even outside of the 10 to 12 big free agent names of the 2010 summer, there aren't even going to be a lot of midlevel names that have high desirability for us. (Travis Outlaw? Thabo Sefolosha? Roger Mason? Well, you get what you pay for, unless you overpay.) The Warriors haven't given away any future draft picks - although we also have not accumulated any. Accumulating draft picks would have been a way to entice a trade, but at least we haven't lost anything. So, we draft a player, and the 2010 draft is expected to have a decent number of names, between John Wall who's expected to go, and the surprisingly large number of athletic big men who might declare early, highlighted by Alrich and Davis. I wouldn't mind at all being high in the lottery in 2010 and expect a good pick to be available at 6-7. Anyway, back off the draft and back into the salary cap situation for 2010, assuming we don't make any major moves this year because none are to be made with the 2009 Free Agent class, we're looking at $56 million in salary. While Claxton and Law fall off the books, we unfortunately extended Jackson with a raise, and Maggette's contract and the rookie contract all call for small raises as well. We probably resign Morrow for more than his minimum contract after this, hopefully something reasonable like Azubuike's contract. But, the story basically does not change, not much chance at improvement through free agency. With a salary cap expected at best, to stay the same, or at worst, shrink 5%, this means we're again right at the salary cap. Let's say we splurged in the 2009 Free Agent period, picking up a max MLE, and pony up again in 2010 with another max MLE. While probably an impossible and imprudent scenario scenario that we entice two actually decent players who are worth that much, it'd mean that we would be right against the luxury cap tax and have eaten any possible space in the 2011 cap. So, 2011 rolls around. The outlook is the same, once again. We don't have any big expiring contracts (2 years on Jackson, Maggette. 3 years on Biedrins, Monta, Randolph). We might lose Wright and Belinelli at this point, and Azubuike is again a free agent, but those are the only big expected changes. We added Curry, a decent 2010 draft pick, and 1 to 3 average players through free agency. Again we have $56-60 million under the salary cap. Again, the salary cap isn't going to magically grow, meaning we have no flexibility. Again, we're probably headed for the lottery.. and unless the 2010 pick turns out to be a superstar (or even if it does), we need at least one more huge piece to make it. So there you have it, why we are stuck in mud for 3 years (at minimum) unless Riley brings us a miracle trade. 2012 is the year that a sad Warriors fan may once again have a glimmer of optimism (unless we land some huge lottery picks). The Amare trade isn't the kind of miracle trade I'm referring to, unless you believe in addition by subtraction - the three scenarios with that would be 1. sign-and-trade Amare at the very least to get back a superstar, 2. resign him to a long contract (I hope not, because he's asking for max-max extend and raise), or 3. let him walk, opening up about $16 million in cap room during the 2010 summer, and still having everyone else but Biedrins to try to build around. (I'd rather give up Monta, and are afraid that the front office overreacted with him due to our failed history with Arenas.) *Edit: A miracle trade would essentially be Maggette, Jackson + filler for a superstar. Someone get out the good luck charms to hope for this outcome.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti I would love Chris Wilcox on our team with Amare, Turiaf, and Randolph. I think our rebounding issues would be solved. BTW, great thoughtful post.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti It's just amazing how quickly history repeats itself. Mullin created caproom nightmare in just one season when he gave Richardson, Dunleavy, Murphy, Foyle and Fisher long and large contracts. He eventually pulled the miracle by trading Dunleavy and Murphy for Jackson and Harrington, and Davis for expiring contracts. When we were sitting pretty looking at rather large caproom in 2010, the whole Rowell thing happened, and Rowell gave Maggette and Jackson long contracts. Now we are stuck for next three years, and the current squard doesn't have a chance to be a contender either. Yeah, like Zhone mentioned, there is very little hope for next 3 years. And, since we won't have any large expiring contract, we can't even make trade like Shaq, Jefferson, Carter type of trade. Ah well, I guess this is nothing new for Warriors fans. At least, we have some good young players to look for, and I only hope Rowell/Riley doesn't gut this team out because this is 'Mullin's' team...
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti The Warriors are limited in their free agent signing opportunities. But I think the team has enough talent to make a big trade or two to get this team into contention. I think sign and trades are an option for this team to get a good player. I also believe that Stephen Jackson actually has pretty decent trade value and could be dealt as early as this offseason if not by this trade deadline to playoff teams needing an extra scoring boost and SG/SF vet. The only problem contract I see on this team is Maggette's. No doubt the contracts to Jackson and Maggette last summer did create some limitations, but I don't think they are killing the team. Like I said, I believe this team can make a trade or two to put them in contention for the playoffs. I think most big moves come by trade than by free agency, except in a few cases like Shaq leaving Orlando for LA.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti It looks a little bleak, but I'm not entirely unhopeful to find a way out. If we could unload Murphy and Dunleavy in one deal, anything is possible. We've gotten rid of Crawford and saved a lot of cash in the process, that's a start. Foyle's contract is finally off the books. And while Maggette and Jackson are difficult to trade, I do not by any means think they are impossible to trade. They both have a lot of talents many teams crave, especially playoff-bound teams or those on the cusp, which is why I think later in the year (this year or next year) one or both could be moved to a team that needs veteran help to push them into higher contention. And we have a lot of young, relatively cheap talent that could be used in trades, some of which is overlapping or redundant (Wright, Belinelli, Azubuike, Curry, maybe even Monta if Curry becomes a stud). So no, I'm not going to go into this season depressed, this franchise may actually be in the best shape it's been in for decades. Sounds ridiculous? Maybe, but I think people are undervaluing all the youthful talent we have on this team. This franchise has seen nothing but stiffs on its roster for nearly 20 years, until recently. The "Baron Era" was fun, but it was lightning in a bottle, and not built to last. But the youth we have can last, if we let it grow together. We may suck again this year, at least at first, but the year after I think the tree is really going to start bearing fruit. And I'm going to be eating that fruit and loving it, as all of you will.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti I'm not really worried about free agency. We have no room at all to add another player right now, even having shipped off Craw for nothing. Monta, Curry, Jack, Beli, Mags, Azu, Morrow, Randolph, Wright, Turiaf, Biedrins should all theoretically be rotation players- that's 11 guys and its not even including Watson who's a fringe rotation type player. We really need to trade quantity for quality, one of the advantages to the Amare trade. If we could pull that off without moving Curry it would leave us with Curry, Monta, Jack, Randolph, Amare, Turiaf, Mags, Morrow; an 8 man rotation that's probably the better team. We're up against the cap for the next few years but I don't think it necessarily restricts us from becomign good again. What if Randolph and Curry pan out and become studs? What if we land Amare? Maybe we keep all of our young guys and a few of Morrow, Beli, Wright, Beans to a certain extent get to the next level or surprise us all? Those would be pretty big developments and they're very feasible.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti I'm pessimistic about the Warriors chances, too, because of Cohan-Rowell-Nelson (as GM)-Riley (as GM who's an assistant GM). That's a non-keeper list if ever I saw one and I will blame management or the players who botch things up. But management has not screwed it up just yet. Witness they got rid of Jamal Crawford's contract which would have been a canker sore near your mouth ready to burst if his issue was not dealt with swiftly. Let's go over your points one by one and I will assume what you assumed about there not being any major transactions that will help the Warriors like the Baron deal. First and foremost, I disagree and think the cap room will go up. It has to go up because both the players and management want it. As to how much it will go up, there's the rub. In other words, it's not going to help the teams way over the cap now. If you have any articles refuting this, then I'd like to see them. I agree with getting mid-level exception type players, but if Stephen Curry is the real deal and can play PG, then we may be one mid-level type player from being a decent team. Maybe not a playoff team, but we will be better than last year. The post draft evaluations all rank the Warriors pick highly. Even PHX wants Curry and he's the dealmaker for Amare, but the Warriors were the ones who walked away. That says volumes about Curry, so I am intrigued as to how good he will be in the NBA. He may not be the one this year, but I'd like to see if he can be our PG of the future. As for 2010 free agency, I tend to agree with you. The Warriors will have to turn the negative perception around about them being a miserly team and poorly managed one. So, they will have to succeed in 2009/2010 season and not have the turmoil they had last season. I doubt they land any of the top free agents, but at least they put out some news that they will be players in the 2010 free agent market. We will be dark horses for sure, but it may help that free agents will be using Golden State as springboards to a more lucrative contract. I agree we try to get rid of Maggette's contract, but I'm for keeping Jackson. He's the face of the Warriors now that Mullin and Baron are gone. I doubt Nelson, Riley or Rowell will want that job.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti That's the ironic thing, I'm not satisfied by us getting better. I would like to build towards a championship team, or at least a perennial playoff team, because I'd like to see some really competitive basketball. And to do this the best plan would actually be to get a good draft pick and of course, tanking/doing horribly is the best way to get a good draft pick. I mean, we could hope for some amazing ping-pong balls too? I don't know.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti http://sportstwo.com/NBASalaries.php#jump_GSW Warriors' salaries
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti Worst ownership and management in the nba, hands down.
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti This is the most jaded I've been since 2005-2006. The Warriors just have to break this vicious cycle somehow... Sell the team Cohan! You're killing us!
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti http://sportstwo.com/blog/nba/nba-w...in-the-warriors-future-why-im-so-pessimistic/ Posted to the S2 blog, great post!
Re: Looking ahead in the Warriors future: Why I'm so pessimistic (super extended arti Yay I'm bloggerfied! Unfortunately, still so pessimistic. The one big assumption that I didn't make clear to non-Warriors fans, is the fact that the Warriors just don't have enough pieces now, otherwise having the same team for 3 years would be like a great assurance for some teams. To make a championship team, you have to sacrifice, which the Warriors aren't willingly doing. Instead they're making poor decision after poor decision in regards the business side of the game.
