Well, obviously "Plan A" didn't work out. It would appear that plan's "B and C" -- Ariza and Artest, are also potentially down the drain. So what to do? Settle? or keep waiting for the right time to strike? By settling, we'd be going after likely our 4th or 5th best option at SF... That list likely includes: -Odom (PROs- closest to Hedo in skills, hurts LA, tough. CONs- restricted, attitude issues [2nd coming of Sheed?], old, LAKER, offer likely to be matched) -Marvin Williams (PROs- young w/ plenty of potential still, consistently improving, good NW kid, Outlaw on offense, at least twice as good on D. CONs- restricted and likely to be matched, not a huge uprade currently, tweener) -Marion (PROs- Experience. CONs- OLD, will likely want to be paid far more than he's worth.) -Josh Smith(PROs- Defensive/Rebounding stud, young, passionate/ultra-competitive player. CONs- HUGE trade kicker [does that kicker add to our cap #?], would need to be traded for and won't come cheap, limited offensive game) -Other less attractive players. So the question then becomes, are any of these guys worth it? I'd argue only Williams and Smith would even be worth looking at, however their price would likely make both cost prohibitive. So now we have to ask ourselves, do we blow our capspace on an aging FA point guard or a backup 4? I think that answer is a clear no. So here we are, as I see it, looking straight down the barrel of standing pat into next season. While it could be argued that this, due to the rest of the title contenders getting better, ISN'T the way to go, I would argue that, strategically it's the best way to go, and here's why. Yesterday Mike Barrett (I think it was MB... regardless, it was somebody on sportsradio) made a very good point about NEXT offseasons cap. The point was that, due to the economy turning at the end of the season, earnings and profits won't be down much, if any THIS season, but will DEFINITELY be impacted NEXT season. The point was that this offseasons cap # would be close to the same as lasts, but NEXT seasons would drop (making EVERY team's capspace smaller). With the insanely good crop of free agents in next offseason, any team with ANY chance at being under the cap is going to do whatever they have to to get there at the next trade deadline. It certainly won't hurt our chances to have 9 MIL in capspace to go along w/ cheap young talent (2 of which are expiring deals) and 3 stashed euros to help a team w/ a salary dump. Moreover, there WILL be teams who, by the deadline, flat out KNOW they won't be able to resign their guy, and, in moving on, will want to clear salary and pick up young talent. I think we could also likely see a trade demand or two as well, which would put the given teams in the same position as the previous example. ALL of these scenarios play out perfectly for us standing pat into next season. One final point to think about is that we might be able to pick up a middle range guy in next offseasons free agent class too. I don't think it's far fetched at all to think that a few of that HUGE list of talents will have to sign MLEs. There simply AREN'T enough max deals out there for all of them. We could definitely benefit from that glut of talent on the market. MOST IMPORTANTLY, while I recognize that standing pat is risky and not aggressive, the worst thing that can happen by standing pat is that our youth continues to develop. Panicking could screw us. Don't forget what happened to the Bulls after they swung and missed at McGrady and Duncan... They gave Ron Mercer a max deal. Standing pat may be playing it safe, but it avoids ending up with another Ron Mercer at max money situation.
LOL at the worst think that can happen is our youth continues to develop. The worst thing that can happen is that we stay put and they don't develop like they should (Outlaw, Webster) I mean who's to say Bayless, Batum and even Oden will develop like we hope they will?
Who's to say they don't?! At the VERY VERY VERY least, we're a team that just finished a year as the youngest team in the league, playing the hardest schedule in NBA history and we won 54 games w/ HCA. Is improving on that THAT horrible of a possibility? Because I don't think it is. As worst case scenarios go, that one's not too shabby. I CERTAINLY think that's a better alternative than ending up w/ another Ron Mercer situation. And again, there's plenty of possibility to improve on that.
I think the primary sentiment was not to blow our cap wad in desperation simply to make a move now. Let's keep it until the season starts and see if we can make a better deal.
Odom is not restricted. In effect he is, of course, because he wants to stay in LA and they want him. But in point of fact, he is unrestricted.
He said if a team offered him a contract he couldn't refuse, he would go. 5 years/52 million good enough?
We could do the Hinrich-for-Blake-and-Outlaw trade without it impacting our cap much at all. Then we get to change AND stay the same... Of course, losing Blake and Outlaw off our cap next season would be part of what gives us cap room... Question: if Roy and Aldridge sign extensions this offseason, what are they on the cap for NEXT offseason?
I hope that's what happens, but as most know, I have no faith that KP will ever do that. He has never added anything of substance during the season.
The max will be something like $14 million, I believe. Since Aldridge mentioned being willing to sign for less than a max deal and less than Roy, I guess you can pencil Roy in for about $14 million and Aldridge for $10-12 million.
If 2 of those 3 don't develop, we're not going to win a championship anyway. The most important piece to this team taking the next step is not signing Hedo, Kidd, Odom, Miller, Sessions, Lee, etc. If Greg Oden develops then the championship window opens. If we signed Hedo, and Oden never develops, all the stars would have to align for us to take that next step.
That sounds about right to me. The max contract for a player after his 4th year is 25% of the cap. That number should amount to roughly $13.5 million if the cap takes a slight dip this season.
none of what is out there helps us at all. IMO, we should have agressively pursued Crash Wallace during the season with RLEC and even Batum. Or targeted RJeff, he was traded essentially for cap space. To think that these deals were dead...doubt it. Right now, nothing out there is going to really help us long term all that much IMO. So we're just stuck with useless capspace to overspend for players we don't really want or need. yay. yes, stay calm...in the sense that we shouldn't be stupid and sign guys just to sign them. has it really gotten to this point? un-fucking-believable.
I very rarely agree with MM but he is right thsi time. It would be almost impossible to have cap space next year or at best very very hard. That is with signing Roy and LMA to extensions and the cap probably going down a lot next year. Even if we could pull off being under the cap which I really doubt we wouldn't sign any of those big FA's next year. That isn't going to happen. If we want to do anything with this team is has to be this year. I'm not sure if there is any FA's but KP should be able to find a trading partner and use some or all of our cap space to help in the trade. I really thought KP could do no wrong a year ago but now I really question his abilities to get something done. I now think he should have made a trade at the trade deadline which I didn't at the time. KP has not improved our team except in the draft and we will not get to be a championship contender from just the draft. If KP doesn't do something good for the Blazers after PA told him he wants to go for it now and not wait KP should really be accountable for this failure.
Good post, however, not one post in this thread mentioned having cap room next offseason for a big free agent splash. The point was that our window of opportunity w/ this cap space doesn't close this offseason... We could easily use it up until the trade deadline next season because extensions don't go into effect until the entire first contract is over. Additionally, my sidepoint about next offseason was that there simply WILL be more desirable free agents than there will be contracts for those players to sign... Unless the majority of players end up back w/ their original team, there will be some pretty dang good leftovers that we should be able to get for the MLE.
That is a massive risk. And signing someone this season wouldn't hinder us in the slightest in using the MLE next year. We would get that either way.
There will be teams that under achieve or have injuries and look to dump useful players. There will also be teams such as Utah and New Orleans looking to dump a contract to get under the luxury tax, they'll give up value such as a couple first rounders when SEA/OKC took Kurt Thomas. Yes there is no need to make a rash move, KP will have opportunities, but he better get something of value by the trade deadline!
