I agree. I can actually see him in there with Oden, too, since he helps space the floor and Oden will (hopefully) be a beast on the backboards to help cover for Outlaw at the power forward. Ed O.
A lot of that was having defensive lightweights like Fye and Diogu (and an undersized Outlaw) at power forward when he was at center. Having to make up for the defensive shortcomings of the power forward will weaken one's defense at center. Millsap is a strong defender who will require little or no help from the center. That will improve Aldridge's defensive effectiveness when playing center, similar to his effectiveness at power forward when Oden or Aldridge is his front court mate.
Millsap is a hell of a player, and I like the signing since clearly nothing else is available via trade. I'm pretty sure he won't be in Portland next year, though.
That sounds good, but I just don't see it working that way. It makes you undersized at center and pf, opposed to always being big at pf and c with an Aldridge/Oden or Przy combo. If Aldridge was a little stronger and thicker, maybe. But he doesn't play like a center at all, on both sides of the court.
Going over a substitution pattern considering the Blazers get Millsap and trade Przybilla. Blake Roy Batum Aldridge Oden Bayless comes in for Blake or Blake plays whole 1st q. No big deal. Roy/Rudy - Roy usually gets a breather 1st q I think. Batum/Webster or Outlaw - has to be Webster Aldridge/Millsap - Aldridge plays whole 1st q. Oden/Aldridge - Oden plays until 4 or 3min left in 1st, Millsap comes in. Now Blake Rudy Webster Millsap Aldridge 1st q over, Aldridge needs rest. Would Oden really come right back in? Idk. So... Bayless Rudy Webster Outlaw Millsap That could potentially be the unit that start the 2nd q. I know McMillan likes to keep one of Aldridge or Roy, but they have to get a breather at some point, especially in the beginning of the season. Can't wear them out. So you'd have a 4/5 combo of Outlaw and Millsap I suppose. Pendergraph could factor in I guess, but he's still undersized to play center. Przybilla can't go anywhere. I know this is really simplifying everything, but still.
Rudy will hate it. Any way to make that Rudy + Joel + Outlaw for Devin Harris? Harris | Blake | Bayless Roy | Bayless Batum | Roy | Webster Aldridge | Millsap Oden | Aldridge
Is it too late to undo 2006? Foye and Thomas would be good cornerstones, not to mention getting Viktor back.
Wrong. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR11.HTM Aldridge's PER at power forward: 21.6 Opponent PER at power forward: 15.5 Aldridge's PER at center: 20.2 Opponent PER at center: 22.8 LMA's overall defensive rating: 92.6 Obviously he's much better suited against 4s than 5s, but he the margin when he plays center isn't so detrimental that it can't be workable for parts of games and depending on matchups. and with respect to Millsap being able to play spot minutes at center the numbers also support that he'd be able to do a passable job in certain situations and for limited minutes. http://www.82games.com/0809/08UTA10.HTM Millsap's PER at power forward: 20.7 Opponent PER at power forward: 16.5 Millsap's PER at Center: 20.9 Opponent PER at Center: 11.5 Millsap's overall defensive rating: 97.7 Here there might be a problem of sample size as only 7% of Millsap's floor time was at the center position (comparable to LMA's 7% last season) but I think either would be able to give you a solid 15-18 minutes combined at the center position when Oden's on the bench, with 6'10" Pendergraph able to give you spot minutes depending on foul trouble and potential injuries.
I guess Woj lost me when he declared it a failure that Lamar Odom isn't a TrailBlazer. Other than that, he doesn't seem to like KP much. It also sounds like there are some other GMs out there who are enjoying the schadenfreude of KP not accomplishing every one of his goals. I'm sure he's both directly and indirectly made life hard on them by making trades that didn't work out well for our competition, drafting well and having owners say to their GMs "What did Pritchard understand that you missed?".
I took a look at 3 seasons since LA didn't play all tham much at C last year. Still holds true that he's much better at PF, but not quite as pronounced. Millsap's has done extremely well at center but he's only played that position for a total of 6.5 full games across 3 seasons and probably against the right opposing centers. SUMMARY OF 3 SEASONS Code: PLAYER PER OPER Diff Full Games* ALDRIDGE PF 20.8 15.4 +5.4 103.3 ALDRIDGE C 20.0 18.2 +1.8 39.4 MILLSAP PF 19.2 16.3 +2.9 100.0 MILLSAP C 21.4 11.2 +10.2 6.6 *Full Games = Total Minutes At Position / 48 YEAR BY YEAR Code: ALDRIDGE - PF PER OPER Diff Full Games 2006-2007 16.4 12.6 +3.8 8.2 2007-2008 20.7 15.9 +4.8 39.4 2008-2009 21.6 15.5 +6.1 55.8 COMBINED 20.8 15.4 +5.4 103.3 ALDRIDGE - C PER OPER Diff Full Games 2006-2007 19.1 16.1 +3.0 19.7 2007-2008 21.1 19.3 +1.8 13.9 2008-2009 20.2 22.8 -2.6 5.7 COMBINED 20.0 18.2 +1.8 39.4 MILLSAP - PF PER OPER Diff Full Games 2006-2007 18.9 15.3 +3.6 26.2 2007-2008 17.7 16.9 +0.8 33.6 2008-2009 20.7 16.5 +4.2 40.2 COMBINED 19.2 16.3 +2.9 100.0 MILLSAP - C PER OPER Diff Full Games 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2007-2008 24.7 8.9 +15.8 0.8 2008-2009 20.9 11.5 +9.4 5.7 COMBINED 21.4 11.2 +10.2 6.6
Honestly, I care as much about hollinger's efficiency rating as I do about the BCS computer rankings. Anyone that watched Lamarcus try to guard Scola in the playoffs knows what I am talking about. LaMarcus just isn't a great defender/rebounder period. Anyone who thinks he is a top rebounder and defender is just wrong, PER or no PER. This is the reason they want to bring in someone like Millsap. Not that LaMarcus is a bad player, I think the PER demonstrates that he is good enough on offense to make up for his defensive troubles, and again, he is a young guy and will become a smarter defender over time. I do think it's funny that anyone cites the PER of Lamarcus to explain why Joel should be traded and Marcus can move to center. Just watch what happens to LaMarcus's defensive stats if Joel is not there to help out. The bottom lin is, you don't trade Joel unless you get another center. You trade Outlaw; he is the extranneous piece.
Aldridge - 20ppg/7.5rpg against Houston Scola - 16ppg/6.7rpg against Portland Huh? "Anybody that watched" saw LMA dominate Scola when he actually got the ball. Scola went for 13/10 against Los Angeles. Perhaps Pau Gasol should be traded as well?
Aldridge didn't even really guard Scola for most of four games in that series to add as well. He was busy helping Joel and Greg shadow Yao. Scola got many of his points on wide open jumpers from the key. I never worry about LMA's rebounding because that isn't his real role in our setup. He is the fastest guy end to end on our team pretty much and his job is to streak out. Our small forwards are supposed to help with the rebounding but uh.. that doesn't happen so much.
Of course, and he still outperformed Scola in the series. I'll just try to not comment on "John Law's" opinions from now on until I see one that actually makes sense.
The BCS composite score has nothing to do with real statistical analysis, it's just a way of kludging together a bunch of subjective opinion polls. John Hollinger on the other hand is a respected and legitimate statistician, and while PER isn't the be-all-end-all statistic, it does a very good job of guaging offensive efficiency and productivity, and a large PER differential is a pretty good metric that a player is outplaying his direct counterpart. Using Luis Scola in a single series as some kind of "proof" that LMA can't play defense against opposing fours not only violates the principle of using a statistically significant sample size, it also discounts the fact the Luis Scola is an experienced and very good power forward. Joel is a nice player, but counting on him to carry you to a championship is an empty hope, even moreso when you possibly have a mere 96 minutes to divvy up 4 ways between LMA, Greg, Millsap and Joel (5 if you still count Outlaw) somebody's being paid to sit on their butt in that scenario and this team still has holes to fill at the one and the three with better defenders. The bottom line: This team goes only as far as Greg Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge carries it. Joel isn't a critical piece of the puzzle
