This isn't the first time I've heard this, but Michael Born referenced that the "time frame of our team has kind of moved up" in terms of what kind of players he added to the summer league team. KP has said something similar in terms of competing NOW rather than the original timeline. I wonder: why. Why has the timeline been accelerated? The easiest answer is that the team won 54 games, but I don't personally buy that line of reasoning. Brandon Roy and Aldridge were better, but not SPECTACULARLY better, than they had been the previous year. Oden was disappointing on most levels. Rudy and Batum were probably a bit better, too, but not dramatically. Blake and Joel probably overachieved the most, IMO. So what happened to tell the team that they should scrap their original plans and go for it now? I know none of us know the original plan and so it's tough to tell how they have/will deviate from it... but it seems that this is more than just PR for the fans... but I'd have rather the team not let the fact that the team won 54 games rather than, say, 47, change the course of the franchise. Ed O.
People are pissed because we wont be hanging that awe inspiring "2nd round WCF appearance" banner, before the home opener.
I'm not sure that addresses why the plan changed. Are you saying that the team was taking a longer-term view because they thought, with their talent, that the team would have done better than they did this last year? That they are focusing more on the present because the team underachieved? I guess it's possible. I had thought it was the opposite: that the team did better than they'd anticipated. Ed O.
I have no idea, but it's been mentioned a couple of times when the Blazers FO is discussing its moves. I don't think that the team is merely playing closer attention now... if they're focusing MORE on the near term (because the window has been moved up) then that means they are sacrificing the long term to some extent, right? Ed O.
The thing is, I don't know how the "old plan" would be different from this "new plan". I would assume the old plan was to let our core grow together, and make minimal moves, so would the new plan be to aggressively trade just about anyone on the roster for a "Star" level player? I mean, the team hasn't really done anything yet so it's hard to judge, especially with all this cap-space that would be a shame to lose.
I'd say it's a combination of the Blazers getting better and the opposition falling off a bit. I think that Brandon did make a major move from star to superstar last season. I think that he showed that in any given game he can be the difference maker who can deliver a win. A championship contender needs a guy like that. Lamarcus made strides, too, and has become that secondary star that every championship contender needs. Greg needs major improvement, but given that this off-season will be the first that he will be healthy enough to be able to put in major training, the odds are that he will step up. With the addition of one more quality player, the starting core will be solid. The availability of cap space opens the opportunity to get that player. The rest of the team made some strides and the addition of Batum and Bayless made the team deeper. The other side of the equation is that the West is more open now than it was. Houston will fall off in a major way. Utah probably will be forced to give up Boozer, which will hit their depth at the power positions. The Spurs made some key additions, but Duncan's old and that team can only go as far as his legs and back can carry them. Dallas is old. Phoenix is rebuilding. Even the Lakers could be weaker if Odom walks. Those two things, combined, say that the Blazers have a reasonable shot at making some noise this next season. I don't see anything to be gained by waiting.
I assume that is the case. Perhaps they thought they were a couple of years from contention and now feel that they're on the cusp of contention. As it was, they won 54 games and had the second-best point differential in the West (suggesting that their record wasn't deceptively high). Oden was a very good center last year when on the floor, he just didn't stay on the court. If he improved a bit and played starter minutes, that would be a pretty large boost right off the top. If any of Aldridge, Rudy, Batum and/or Bayless improve, they close the gap on the Lakers even more. If several of them improve, all bets are off. And those are all reasonable expectations. So my guess is that they feel that the window has opened a season early. I don't think they're completely "changing course"...just advancing their expectations and time table a bit.
The FO never expected to have the second-best record in the West, and HCA, this season. Of course the plan should change. It was conventional wisdom that Portland would steal the 7th/8th seed last season. Clearly, the team is advancing faster than the FO expected it to advance. For you to say that winning more games (47 v. 54) shouldn't change the course of the franchise is a bit of a red herring. How is being competitive faster than expected going to "change the course of the franchise"?
I totally get where you're going with this. But that number, 54, changed every thing. I really do think it's simple as that. To win 54 in the "mighty west" was truly a great accomplishment for this team. It created a perception of acceleration, right or wrong. I say it's "right," because even if we don't make any moves we have a chance to be even better than last season.
I think the plan is changing not so much because of the 54 wins (although that surly has a lot to do with it) but because staff and even fans are getting tired of youth. They need to sell tickets and shirts, and the way to do this is to drive excitement. Nate, by all accounts has been asking for "experience" for some time, and now with the 54 wins, the fans are also asking for it. If you look at our roster, we have a damn lot of youth and I think that people including KP are looking at the prospect of waiting another 4+ years for youngsters to improve and are just getting antsy. If instead the Blazers get off-the-shelf players, then all the waiting is just for the players we already have. Personally, I go back and forth on the idea of youth with higher ceilings vs ready to go lesser talent. The best would be ready to go great talent, but we all know that getting that is near impossible without giving up on a lot of our great prospects. I think that the team overachieved last year and hope that KP & Co don't bite into the hype too much and remember how much the team really needs to improve to be a legit championship contender.
Agreed above; 54 wins, and tired of hearing "developing our rookies, our youth, our young guys". It's time to reap the benefits of what we've got.
it wouldn't surprise me if the shift to "win now" was at least partially due to the recent economic downturn - because it has significantly weakened some of the anticipated competition and/or because the tax threshold going down instead of up makes it less likely the nucleus will be kept together long term.
I think Batum was supposed to be on the Travis Outlaw career path at the start of the season. 3 or 4 seasons and maybe we'd have something. It turned out he was a hell of a lot better than anybody thought. Roy took a much bigger leap this last year than you gave him credit for, too. He was kind of a borderline All Star two years ago. It could have gone a couple different directions. Nobody talked about him as arguably the second best shooting guard in the league. He just dominates the team now so much more than he did two seasons ago. I think management was more realistic about Oden than I was, and he performed about how they expected him to. Maybe a little better. I don't know that NBA GM's really have terribly detailed plans. It's just too fluid. Guys get injured, demand trades, surprise you in good or bad ways on the court. Guys on other teams who seem impossible to acquire one year are a cinch the next. Heck, a lot of GM's are fired beyond two years. If there was a multi-year plan, I doubt it was much more specific than, "We should be in position to contend in the fall of 2010." With the surprising progress of Batum and Roy, the steady and slow improvement of Aldridge, and Oden looking like he's right on track for a microfracture surgery recovery, it seems pretty reasonable to move it up a year.
I read a great quote about that on Baseball Prospectus the other day: "No plan survives contact with reality."
He was a poet-philosopher-earbiter. A real renaissance man. He invented the parachute and the submarine, but nobody noticed because he used human faces as his canvas.
I think a lot of it has to do with Roy. As mentioned he has taken a big step and become an elite player in the league. But on top of that I wonder if Roy is about to hit his peak years. He played college for 4 years, he has a few nagging injuries . . . his time might be in the next "4" years. Until Oden develops, Roy is our superstar and the key factor in the "window open" stage.
