Via Marc Stein I was mulling over a straightforward Tyrus for Lee sign and trade the other day 1. Since we appear to not want to trade Kirk and Salmons, our actual prospects for maximum cap space next summer look slim. So if we commit to Lee now, rather than face a difficult negotiation with Tyrus, we might not forego as much as we think. 2. The Knicks are in the opposite position. They need a solid player for this year, but I think they’d prefer to wait on signing any long-term deals until they find out what’s in store for next year. In that respect, Tyrus makes plenty of sense for them, since he’s locked up for this year, and his restricted status would allow them a partial fallback next year. I’d think the Knicks would value that flexibility. 3. Lee seems to be the anti-Tyrus in the respects the Bulls care about. He’s a relentless rebounder who actually wants to play PF, not be on the perimeter. He’s not got the offensive potential of Tyrus, but he’s stronger and seems to have a high “grit” level. 4. Since he’s restricted and it’s a down market, (Lee) might be able to be had on the sort of “value” contract that makes Jerry cream his panties. That’s the logic from the outside. My own perspective is that this could, in fact, be a workable deal. It wouldn’t even completely kill our 2010 plan if we later unload Kirk and Salmons. Basically I think Lee would be replacing one of their salaries. We can probably have cap space with keeping one of those three guys (Kirk, Salmons, Tyrus). If we unload all of them, we can afford to take one guy back, if his salary is somewhat reasonable. And I have to say, if I were given the choice of one player out of those three plus Lee to have going forward, I’d pick Lee. Compared with Kirk and Salmons, he’s significantly younger and plays a more scarce position. He also plays it quite well. Compared with Thomas, he appears to be an almost all-around better player. He’s not a ridiculous athlete, but Lee is actually a fine, even above average athlete compared to other NBA PFs. He’s worked hard and developed a solid jump shot. The only real downside I think is he’s not going to intimidate and block a lot of shots, but that, I guess, is what we hope to free Noah to do more of if we’ve got Lee. In any case, it gives us two guys who know how to play good defense inside, and that’s an absolutely crucial element to a good team. I’d do it in a heartbeat.
You might be onto something here. With Johnson projecting to be a more talented, equally inconsistent and potentially moody tweener like TT, I think balancing him with a rock solid if unspectacular Lee would be the smart move. And if DWade is the guy to be signed, one of Salmons or Hinrich is gone regardless. If it's a big, Lee is an attractive piece as part of a sign and trade or just a trade to open up space. Lee isn't $12 million good either, though. I'd sign him for 125% of Tyrus's number, plus a million or so for Gray or their 1.7 million trade exception. They'd have to cut some salary though to get back under the LT.
And it's believed that New York is determined to retain Lee and Nate Robinson on one-year deals that preserve full Bird rights for both players without obligating the Knicks to slice into their projected salary-cap space for 2010 free agency.
Well, here's the thing. There's a pretty good chance there won't be 2010 cap space anyway. And if it is possible to get it, we'd probably have to let Tyrus walk anyway. By my count, we have maximum cap space only if the league BRI doesn't fall by too much and then we still need to trade one of Kirk or Salmons for expirings. To put it differently, to have max cap space, I think we can only keep one of Kirk/Salmons/Tyrus. Since the former.
Update from CNNSI ... The Knicks were hoping to get Nate Robinson and David Lee signed at the same time and that is still a possibility if Lee is willing to agree to a one-year deal worth between $7 and $8 million. If Lee isn't signed, the Knicks will try to work out and sign and trade. The Bulls have always been high on Lee and may try to work out a deal. The Knicks like Kirk Hinrich but Chicago would likely push Tyrus Thomas.
The knicks like Hinrich? and the three years or whatever it is left on his deal? Huh? CNNSI is still around?
None of this is going to happen. The Bulls are gonna try out their current roster and make a deal at the deadline like they always do.
Well, what I was suggesting was getting Lee and still having max cap space available. Of course, if the worst case scenarios on the cap next year are true, we're sort of hosed either way.
Hmmm...missed that. I do think unless you pull the trigger prior to the deadline that it may be much harder to move Hinrich and Salmons to teams with exceptions or cap space next summer than a normal summer.
I don't think there will be a problem moving a guy like Hinrich or Salmons. They're solid guys who have a positive impact. The league is turning into haves and havenots, so there are really only a handful of teams with a shot at making a big free agent signing. The other 20-25 teams would love to pick up a guy like those two on the cheap. Plus, depending on how it plays out, the only guy on the roster this summer who will definitely still be on the roster after next summer is Rose. Everybody else is a chip.
I think you vastly overestimate the market for those guys. Opportunities seem to dry up pretty quick when you start looking at what other teams have and what we'd have to take back. First, we'd need to get expiring deals back, and the number of teams that have them to offer is pretty low. Second, I think there was some interest in Hinrich, but as time passes, teams fill the need for a PG and move on. The Blazers wanted Kurt for a couple years, but now that they've locked in Andre Miller, it doesn't make much sense for them to trade for him. Add in the teams that have good options at PG already, and you further limit the list. Third, there are several teams who just don't have the cash to commit to anyone longer term. Fourth, it'd be pretty difficult to pull a deal like that next summer while we (and everyone else) are angling for free agents. If some team knows our ability to sign, say, Wade, is contingent on our ability to trade Kurt immediately, there could well be some issues with that. Teams are always trying to hold each other up. If you want a realistic chance at cap room, you probably have to make the trade sooner (this summer or by the deadline), so you don't run into that sort of issue. So when you add all that up, I think Jay's right and the opportunities for moving these guys is going to go down over the course of the season and next summer.
Think Marcus Camby for the right to swap second round picks. That deal will always be out there for Hinrich and Salmons.
Even in a normal summer, those types of deals normally get done after the key free agents are signed. Next summer is abnormal with all the really good free agents.
