Battle of the Bigs: The NBA’s Top Frontcourts

http://sportstwo.com/blog/nba/battle-of-the-bigs-the-nbas-top-frontcourts/

 

You have Bosh and Bargnani listed as the 3rd best frontcourt in the league? No way. They don't even deserve to be on the list. Don't let Bagnani's scoring fool you. His presence on the court has a HUGE negative impact on his team's success. He is a horrible defender and a pathetic rebounder (the worst rebounding starting 7-footer since Brad Sellers). Defense and rebounding wins games and Bargnani is atrocious at both. He is a HUGE reason the Raptors only won 33 games last season.

Don't believe me, look at his stats at 82games.com:

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809TOR1.HTM

+/- = -248 - by far the worst on the team

His On Court / Off Court stats:

http://www.82games.com/0809/08TOR14.HTM

Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
on court = 108.0
off court = 107.5

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.

on court = 113.1
off court = 106.2

Net Points per 100 Possessions
-6.5

The Raptors actually outscored their opponents by 17 points when Bargnani wasn't on the court, but were outscored by 248 points when he was. That's a HORRIBLE on court/off court differential and a huge negative impact for one player to have on his team.

You placed the starting front court of a 33-win team as 3rd on your list, but entirely left off the starting front court of the 54-win Portland Trailblazers. Please explain the logic behind that decision. Whether the Blazers start Oden or Pryzbilla at center, their front court is MUCH better than Toronto's with Bargnani starting at center. Unlike Bargnani, both Pryzbilla and Oden both have a positive impact on their team's performance.

From 82games.com:

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR1.HTM

Pryzbila:
+/- = +296

Oden:
+/- = +171

Combine either of those with LaMarcus Aldridge (+/- = + 484) and it's clear the Blazers have a MUCH better starting front court than Toronto.

Looking at their individual On Court / Off Court stats:

http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR14.HTM

Przybilla:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
on court = 112.8
off court = 117.0

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.

on court = 103.2
off court = 113.3

Net Points per 100 Possessions
+5.9

Oden:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
on court = 118.9
off court = 113.1

Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.

on court = 110.6
off court = 107.2

Net Points per 100 Possessions
+2.4

Both of Portland's centers had a net positive impact while they were on the court. Even Oden, as an injured foul prone rookie had a net positive impact on his team (unlike the 3rd year Bargnani). He will surely get even better as he completes his recovery from microfracture surgery, regains mobility and cuts down on stupid fouls and other rookie mistakes. Combine either of these centers with Aldridge (Net Points per 100 Possessions = +10.2) and it's clear the Blazers front court is far, far better than the Raptors - and that shows up directly in the success of both teams (Toronto = 33 wins, Portland = 54 wins).

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but given Bargnani's huge negative impact on his team's success, please explain in exactly what way Toronto's front court is better than Portland's. Defense and rebounding wins games - and those two factors are highly dependent on the quality of a team's starting front court. With either Przybilla (TRB% = 22.8) or Oden (TRB% = 20.0) starting, Portland has one of the best rebounding front courts in the league, Toronto, with Bargnani (TRB% = 10.0) starting at center has one of the worst. And, I've already shown how Toronto gets outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when Bargnani defends the paint. Yes, Bargnani can hit an open 3-pointer, but until his rebounding and defense improve vastly, Toronto doesn't even deserve to be on that list, let alone 3rd.

BNM

 

being a complete non homer here, Kevin love and Al Jefferson deserve to be on this list. Al jefferson may now be the best offensive big man in the league, and love, as a rookie, was i think (may not have ended the season with, but was at some point) leading the league in per minute rebounds. Plus Love is a good shooter, and his outlet passes are better than any other big mans'

 

The problem isn't on offense, it's on the other end. Jefferson and Love are an undersized front court lacking in athleticism that have trouble stopping other larger, more athletic bigs. They both had negative +/- (-106 for Jefferson and -255 for Love) for the season. So, while they can score, they give up a lot more points than they produce. I also have a hard time considering the starting front court of a 24-win team as one of the best in the league. They are both young and will continue to improve, but due to their poor defense, I don't think they deserve to be on the list yet.

BNM

 

Agreed, although KMart's production continues to decline (11.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG). Still, between the three of them they bring decent rebounding, solid defense and efficient, if unspectacular scoring.

BNM

 

Too early to be putting Bosh/Bargnani on that list, Legacy. I'm even a fan of them and I think that. Fact is, they've yet to play their best basketball at the same time. And there are still questions over whether the two can mesh together. They have fundamentally similar offensive games (facing up with the threat of a jumpshot) that might not jive well.

I've been thinking about it for a while now, and I've concluded that I'm just not a big fan of using +/- as a definitive statement for how good or bad an individual player is defensively. It's a good way to gain a general clue about how productive a player is. But the numbers you get are heavily dependent upon contextual factors (eg: overall talent on the roster, rotations, game situations, coaching). In fact, I think they're so dependent upon context that they usually end up telling you more about the team's season that that particular player.

For example, the Timberwolves were just a terrible team last season. They dealt with coaching changes, injuries to their best player, and just a dearth of quality talent. Any player with a significant role on that team is bound to have a minus rating, and the more minutes a player played the higher the chance their rating sunk. +/- tells you that the team sucked defensively and wasn't good enough offensively to offset it, but it doesn't give enough of a explanation for who/what was responsible and why. In this case, your first few sentences tell more than anything those stats do (I happen to agree with them FWIW).

Similarly, Andrea Bargnani gets punished for logging among the most minutes and being one of the few players to play almost every game for a terrible Raps team. +/- doesn't tell us that the team's injuries and player turnover meant that they had a shitload of starting lineups over the course of the year, none of which were effective (most of which had him in them because he was healthy). And that during the period when he played most of his minutes, his significant teammates were either new (Marion), injured (JO, Bosh, Calderon), or playing hurt (Calderon).

 

I agree. There is no one definitive stat that can be used to accurately measure a player's net offensive or defensive contribution. That's why I also included Bargnani's on court/off court stats - to try to give a more complete picture of his net contributions. There are several stats that try to meaure a player's over all impact, and to get the best over all picture of a players net contributiuons, you should look at several of them and see if a clear trend emerges. In Bargnain's case, the trend is VERY clear. He's a BAD defender that gives up more points than he produces and he's a HORRIBLE rebounder.

+/- by itself does not tell the whole story, but when Bargnani's +/- is BY FAR the worst on his team (-248, Kopono was "2nd" at -137) AND his team performs much better with him on the bench (+17) than with him in the game (-248) AND his team's defense gets MUCH worse when he's in the game (113.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) than when he's on the bench (106.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) and his individual DRTg (defensive rating) of 110 is 5 points worse than his ORTg (offensive rating) of 105, you can only come to one possible conclusion - Andrea Bargnani is a horrible defender by any measure and has a huge negative impact on his team's performance. If there was a single stat that refuted this conclusion, you would at least have something to serve as a basis for a counter argument. But, the fact is ALL the stats point to the fact that Bargnani is just flat out a poor, poor defender.

The same case can be made for his exceptionally poor rebounding. His total rebounding percentage of 10.0, was up from his previous two seasons of 9.2, but it is still one of the worst TBB% of any starting 7-footer in the last 25 years. As a center, he also gives up almost 5 more REB/48 (13.4) than he hauls in (8.5). I could go on, but I don't think anyone in their right mind will actually contend that Bargnani is not a pathetic rebounder. Like with his defense, ALL the various rebounding stats point to the same conclusion - Andrea Bargnani is one of the worst rebounding starting centers in the league - not just now, but over the last 25 years.

So, he gives up considerably more points than he produces (a delta of -5.0 to -6.5 points per 100 possessions, depending on which metric you use) and gives up about 5 more rebounds per 48 minutes than he produces. To me, it doesn't sound like Andrea Bargnani is a victim of playing on a poor team. It sounds more like he is a major cause of his team's poor record. When your starting center is very weak defensively AND very weak on the boards, I don't see any justification for putting the Toronto front court on any list of best NBA front courts - let alone listing them as 3rd best. There is simply no data to support that position and plenty of data to refute it.

BNM

 

What I'm trying to say is that these stats try to bracket out the individual's performance from the team's to determine how much they actually contribute (contrasting the team with/without him). To do that, it has to assume that there is a certain amount of consistency with that team over the course of 82 games. With the Raptors, the complete opposite is true. Just to throw some factors into the equation:

- The Raptors had two entirely different types of rosters in '08-'09. With the roster being so thin, the JO-Marion trade dramatically changed the team's gameplan and philosophy. And within that split, there were a number of different starting lineups due to injuries (especially after the JO-Marion trade).

- The Raptors had two different head coaches during the season, whose styles contrasted strongly. Triano made a concerted effort to open up and quicken the offense. That team became a poorer defensive team in an attempt to boost an offense that had become stagnant under Mitchell.

- The team lost more and more motivation as the season progressed. It started off believing it might be able to contend with Boston, and slowly players grew disgruntled and disheartened. By the end of the season, their best players were worried more about their health and the offseason than what remained of '08-'09. Moreover, Triano (probably instructed from Colangelo) clearly attempt to showcase lesser players on the team to see what they were capable of.

Clearly the '08-'09 Raptors don't provide the kind of consistency you'd like for a measure like this. Now you have to contrast Bargnani against this clusterfuck of a season, a player whose season-long production has well-documented qualifications (he only played half the season up to his potential, he only played half the season consistently at center). When you combine them, what you find is that:

- Bargnani started as a center when this team had shifted to a more offensive-oriented philosophy (at the expense of the team's defense). Moreover the team's defensive gameplan during that time was misguided in itself (Triano tried to implement more switching for a group of players that had not developed a very high defensive IQ under Mitchell, and it didn't work out well at all)

- He started as a center when the team was its least competitive, both in spirit (players had given up, management was testing out less-talented bench players) and talent (injuries became more of a problem)

- He spent most of his minutes on the bench when the team was most concentrated and committed to defense (although it still sucked on that end). Their slower offensive pace also avoided hindering team defense the way Triano's offense did.

- Also, while he had that bench role, he played minutes at the 3-spot which was just a terrible terrible idea

Now Bargnani played among the most minutes for the '08-'09 Raptors, so his +/- is bound to be very low (since the team sucked so bad). But when you factor the nature of those minutes, you have to see why the measure doesn't really gauge how good of an individual defender he was. It just lacks the constants you'd like to see. There are too many exceptional factors. And that's why I've stuck with my own observations of Andrea's defense as opposed to these statistical measures.

I hope that made sense. It did in my head at least, but it was hard to articulate it all at the same time. This season will almost certainly provide a better background for +/-. The team will have a single coach and gameplan the entire year, should have the same starting lineup/rotation for most of the season, and injuries look to be less of a worry than they were coming into last year (when Calderon and Bosh had competed over the summer). If Bargnani comes up with such a poor rating this season, I'd have no choice but to admit he's weak defensively (although I hope that I'd come to that conclusion through observation).

 

While I admire your unwaivering support of Bargnani, you just spent a whole lot of time thinking of excuses for Bargnani's awful +/- stats from last season - when I already agreed that +/- doesn't tell the whole story.

However, as I also stated perviously, when +/- AND every other stat that attempts to measure defense and over all impact all show a player to be a horrible defender, it's pretty safe to conclude that that player is, indeed, a horrible defender (and in Bargnani's case, also a horrible rebounder). If it was just his +/- that was awful, I could buy your excuses, but when you combine his awful +/- with his horrible on court/of court stats, very poor DRTg, etc. I tend to think the excuses are just that - excuses for his poor play.

I also admit I only see Bargnani play a handful of times a year, but when I have seen him play, he looks totally lost and very ineffective on defense. Perhaps this year, with nearly a year's worth of experience under his new coach, he will start to have a better understanding of his team's defense and what role he's supposed play on the defensive end.

But, that's all in the past. Bargnani is still young and could improve those areas. He definitely needs to become better defensively and on the boards if the Raptors hope to advance in the play-offs.

BNM

 

I focused on +/- because it was central to your post. But +/- is similar to other defensive measures in that they have to make certain assumptions about the team and individual's year-long production, in order to come to any definitive conclusion. And I think my response shows why the '08-'09 Raptors don't justify making that assumption (especially when you combine them with Bargnani's own "statistical journey").

I'm sure it looks like I'm just trying to find any excuse for Bargnani, but this is all motivated by my own observations. What I saw from him over 82 games did not jive with your statistical conclusion, so I took a step back, looked at the wider picture, and identified things that might have skewed the stats. I think they're legitimate issues. Raptors fans will back up my observations about the team's defensive decline over the course of the season. You and I have both acknowledged the issues with analyzing Bargnani's season in our many posts on the topic. When you combine the two, it really does become clear that Bargnani spent most of his minutes on the bench when the Raptors (independant of him) were their best defensively, and played most of his minutes when (independant of him) they were their worst. And that's completely discounting the minutes he did play early on, when he looked unmotivated or when he was playing out of position.

Since the we're resorting to personal observations now, I'll state confidently that the Bargnani I'm backing can defend the center position. He struggles against quicker forwards and guards, which is why you want him to spend less time at small forward or even power forward. Against slower/stronger post players though, he's strong enough to deny them position and has the length and timing to contest (and sometimes block) their shots. He's surprisingly willing to get physical for such a finesse offensive player. The one notable exception I remember is Shaq pwning Andrea and the rest of our frontcourt late in the season (the 40+ point game that spawned the "Bosh = Rupaul" diss).

His rebounding absolutely has to improve. Notice I didn't defend that aspect of his game. But as I mentioned once before, you have to separate his offensive and defensive rebounding. He's a non-existent offensive rebounder and probably always will be. Defensively, he's just mediocre though (he boxes out well, grabs some himself, but too often is content to let his teammates grab the ball). And I think he has the tools and work ethic to hold his own on that end. That's really all I'd like to see from him.

There's also one more issue worth noting. From what he showed this past season, Bargnani might end up being a poor defensive fit for the Raptors. He's not a good help defender at all. He has the length and athleticism to be one, but he doesn't currently possess enough defensive awareness and experience to always know when to rotate and help out. The Raptors, with such terrible perimeter defense, are particularly in need of someone who can play good help defense.

 

This was in no particular order. I just picked three from the West and three from the East.

 

It was just a few minutes in the first half, but at the Blazers/Raptors game I attended last December, he was completely physically overmatched by Oden. Bargnani looked totally helpless trying to guard Oden - who is very raw offensively, but very strong. Of course, his biggest problem was keeping Oden off the offensive boards.

I've heard this argument/excuse before, but the stats at 82games.com just don't support it. As a center, Bargnani gives up 13.4 REB/48 (compared to the 8.5 REB/48 he hauls in). That's a delta os -4.9 REB/48. Not good. He fared a little better why playing power forward, he still had a -2.2 REB/48 disadvantage over his opponent. To me, that says he's NOT doing a good job boxing out his man and letting his teammates get the rebounds. On the Blazers, LaMarcus Aldridge gets criticized for being a weak rebounder, but he actually has a +1.0 REB/48 advabtage over his opponent. So, this shows he IS doing a good job boxing out his man while his teammates (Przybilla and Oden - two of the best rebounders in the league) grab the rebounds. Any way you slice it, Bargnani is one of the worst rebounding 7-footers in the entire history of the league. Bargnani has a LONG way to go just to become a below average rebounder.

I have a very strong bias in favor of players, expecially big men, who rebound and play tough defense. While not as flashy as scoring, rebounding and defense wins games and wins championships. Becuase Bargnani is very weak in both these areas, I rate Toronto's starting front court as below average - in spite of having an all-star like Chris Bosh starting at power forward. Unless Bargnani greatly improves in both of these areas, I don't think the Raptors will become legitimate contenders and will continue to struggle to win in the post season. Bosh is a decent rebounder and defender, but for any team to be successful in the post season with Bargnani at center, I think he needs to be paired with a PF that is an absolute rebounding and defensive beast.

BNM

 

Was that the close game between the two teams, that was decided by a last-second jumper? I watched that game, but missed the other matchup while on vacation.

I know Bargnani wasn't able to consistently guard his position until he learned to play physical D without committing easy fouls. That's a challenge Oden's going through too, I believe. The best way for a player to fix that problem is to play through mistakes and get smarter through experience. Andrea didn't get that opportunity until Triano replaced Mitchell. Smitch had too quick a hook, IMO.

It's more like another critique than an excuse. Much like how Bargnani's reluctance to move off his own defensive mark hurts this team, his hesitance to actually get that rebound himself hurts the team. He boxes out well, but trusts his mediocre-rebounding teammates too often when he's perfectly capable of getting the ball himself. He needs to realize that the defensive player has an inherent positional advantage when it comes to rebounding, and has to learn how to take advantage of it. Basically, he needs to rebound with a heckuva lot more assertiveness and urgency.

 

Nope, it was the game n 12/27/08 that the Blazers won by 13. And, it wasn't really even that close. The Blazers jumped out to an early lead. Oden started the game and the Blazers went to him in the low post early and often (one of the few times they did that all season). He immediately got JO in quick foul trouble and the Raps brought in Bargnani and Oden killed him. It was almost comical watching Bargnani trying to stop Oden. Oden finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds, but it came almost all in the first half. I think he had 10 or 12 points and 6 boards after the 1st quarter. Bargnani finished with 13 points and 2 boards, but most of his scoring came in the 2nd half.

Oden's foul trouble doesn't have too much with playing too physical. He does a very good job guarding his man. His problem was a lack of lateral quickness (from the microfracture surgery). He picked up a ton of stupid fouls against smaller, quicker players (mostly PGs) trying to jump switch on the pick and roll. He just didn't get to his spot quick enough. So, any contact was a foul on Oden. He basically got called for a hip check on the opposing PG almost every time the opposition ran a high post pick and roll. He has been working on recovering his lateral quickness this summer. Hopefully that, combined with adding Andre Miller, will help cut down on these types of needless fouls. If he can do that, he'll be able to stay in the game much longer. Teams really exploited this weakness in his game last season.

BNM