Not in Reinsdorf's position with my desire to win basketball games, but in Reinsdorf's position with Reinsdorf's desire to control costs and maintain flexibility, I'd be thinking hard about what the new CBA is gonna look like. I've been mulling over what the likely effects are of the CBA negotiations coming down the pike. Everything I read seems to indicate the owners are going to push for a more along the lines of a smaller cap, a hard cap, shorter contracts and probably smaller contracts. All of which might make an owner with an eye on the bottom line not want to sign any contracts next summer (under the current CBA) anyway, because they could be especially overpriced under the new CBA. For that matter, it might also behoove them to make an Okafor for Chandler type trade with Deng. The idea being that Deng's contract, while in line with what a player like Deng could expect under the current CBA and good economic times, is could be prohibitive and out of line with what you'll pay Deng under the upcoming CBA. Which would be another reason to trade him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_sp_bk_ne/bkn_bargaining_talks NBA, union open collective bargaining talks NEW YORK – The NBA and its players' association have held their first collective bargaining talks, meeting for 3 1/2 hours without exchanging any proposals. The sides shared financial information and called the session Tuesday "cordial and productive." They added they looked forward to sitting down again before the start of the season. The current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2011 season — the league has an option to extend it a year — but owners and players decided on an early start to discussions with many teams struggling because of the economic crisis. No deal is expected anytime soon. NBA commissioner David Stern has said the central issue will be the split in revenues, with the players currently collecting 57 percent.
I saw an interesting article that indicated due to provisions in the current CBA that 10% of the players money was withheld last year and the bulk of it went to the owners to bring the owners up to the 43% mark. So a $71M contact might not really be worth $71M. Here it is: http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2009/08/as_labor_challenges_grow_nba_a.html Every time the CBA is coming up for renegotiation, there is talk that it will change dramatically and it always changes incrementally. FWIW, I do agree with not spending the money next summer on a "Ron Mercer" and even a David Lee possibly. I think if the Bulls are healthy and have max space, they will have a good chance to get someone very, very good.
Deng's deal also has incentives, so the full $71 isn't guaranteed either. IIrc I read somewhere that only somewhere between $58 and $63 million is actually guaranteed. Those escalators in max deals are tied to the same numbers that determine the MLE size. All of the deals are going down from what they were projected to be a few years ago.
You're right, it's $71 guaranteed, with incentives up to $80. But is any of that $71 tied to increasing revenue like max deals are? It would be interesting (and very bad for the bulls salary cap) if it isn't and the cap falls to the point where Deng is actually making more than he could as a free agent signing a max deal.
The max deals only fluctuate if the player signs the contract a year b/c he starts getting paid and it is cemented a year later when the player starts getting paid. Deng's contract has been locked in from day 1. And, yea, it does look even worse given max salaries are going down on new max deals.
With the crashing cap and tax, I'm surprised Reinsdorf is taking Joe Johnson at the max over Ben Gordon at $9 million a year.
No need to be surprised, because he's not going to do that. If I'm the Bulls, I'm looking for two types of players. 1. Players under contract for this year and next. Their contracts will expire as the new CBA takes effect. These guys will give the Bulls flexibility to go in a number of directions. If it's sensible to re-sign them, do it. If not, the Bulls won't be locked into them. 2. Players on rookie deals that don't need to be renegotiated until the new CBA takes effect. This is everyone from the 07, 08, and 09 draft classes. And 06, sort of, if you consider forcing guys to play out the QO to be good practice. Players I'm looking to avoid. 1. Guys who will be locked into long term deals under the old CBA (hence the need to trade Deng) 2. Guys who will be requiring new deals before the terms of the new CBA are decided (this is anyone who's a FA next summer) unless it's just a complete and utter no brainer - Wade, Bosh, Lebron.
