Over, even if Oden is the exact same player he was last year. I don't expect that to be the case. 64 wins.
If Oden is the exact same player, then where do you get the boost of +10 games? I mean I'm saying IF Oden is dominant by at the latest 01/01/10 then I expect an increase of +6 wins. You're saying no change in Oden and +10? Do you forsee Batum having an All-Star season? Aldridge averaging 25 and 12? I have very high hopes for this team but 64 wins is challenging for 1st seed and a real shot at a ring. I love it don't get me wrong but it seems more then a bit optimistic if Oden doesn't step up I can't see it happening like that.
Really the improvement hinges on Nate IMO. He seems to be sticking to his current starters awfully tite. I said 62. Where do I see the improvement coming from? Natural evolution with each player on the squad including Oden. Everybody will improve atleast some. But the key here is Andre Miller and Martell Webster. Andre is going to open this thing up for the blazers. And if Martell stays healthy. This team could be an absolute offensive jauggernaut. If Coach allows it.
That's better then becoming an offensive "Jaegernaut". Jaegernaut (Yay-Grrr-Not) Noun: A sailor from the Rose Festival fleet who has had one too many shots of Jaegermeister and is now hitting on your wife.
...add a dose of A.Miller to a 54 win roster only destined to improve and you have a 60+ win basketball TEAM, gauranteed!!! "The Dynasty Begins In 2010"
Sorry, I guess I didn't say that as well as I thought. Zero improvement from Oden = 60 wins, IMO. Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Webster, and Bayless are all in varying degrees of a steep improvement curve. Miller is (arguably) better than Blake at PG, and as a backup, Blake is GOLDEN. Przybilla is as strong or stronger than he's ever been, and can be expected to play at the same level for at least another season, maybe two. Anything we get out of the rest of the roster is gravy. All we need to win 60 is Greg to produce at the same level as last season. Any improvement by Oden takes us above and beyond. I think we will challenge for 1st seed, and I think we'll have a real shot at a ring, God willing and the creek don't rise.
Over. I think they actually should have won a few more games last season, based on their point differential. Considering that Miller essentially replaces the production of Sergio/Bayless (since Blake remains with the team) and some of Blake's, that's a massive upgrade. More minutes from Oden (with no improvement) would be an upgrade. Improvement from Oden would be a further upgrade. Net improvement from Rudy, Batum and Bayless would be a further upgrade. All of these things I find to be very likely propositions. Barring major injuries, I think 60+ wins is very likely.
Sergio being gone is worth 5 wins alone. Miller is worth a couple for sure. Assuming even a few of the other players improve and a few of the older teams slide 60 should be attainable.
I'm with the Wookiee. When I looked at the schedule, I marked as many losses as I thought we'd get (Cleveland, Boston, LA once each, etc.) and so on... It came out surprisingly high how many games I think we can win. I came out with 64, and really felt surprised. I think 64 is a ceiling, but that 62 is definitely possible, and 60 probable. So I'm over. When we get to the "how many wins" thread, I'll post my answer... it's percolating.
58 is my midpoint for wins, with a +/- 4. ABM, it would have been interesting if this poll was public.
I said under. A lot of things need to go right to win 60 games, and adding 6+ extra wins is tougher when you're already as good as we are. Hope I'm wrong!
